Technical Alert: Bitcoin MACD Signals Bearish Trend, Multiple Support Levels Await Testing

Bitcoin faces pressure right from the start of 2026. Several analysts have recently issued warnings, suggesting this could become a bear market year for Bitcoin, with prices potentially retreating to around $58,000. Currently, BTC has retraced 9% from its January high of $97,930, breaking through multiple key support levels, with the downside risk clearly increasing.

Technical Indicators Are Indeed Flashing Red

Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto pointed out that the MACD on the two-month cycle has experienced a bearish crossover, which is a clear bearish signal. Based on historical experience, similar technical patterns often trigger a retracement of 50%-64%. If the retracement occurs within this range, the downside potential from the current price is quite significant.

Glassnode’s latest analysis focuses on supply-side pressure. They noted that Bitcoin has fallen below the cost basis of 75% of the supply (currently at $92,940), indicating increasing distribution pressure. Their conclusion is straightforward: risk has clearly shifted upward, and until this level is reclaimed, the downside risk remains dominant.

Support Levels Have Become Key Battlegrounds

Bitcoin is currently hovering near multiple support levels, and the performance at these points will directly influence subsequent movements.

Trader Merlijn The Trader’s analysis is worth noting: Bitcoin’s price has returned to the ascending trendline support zone ($89,000-$90,000). If this level is broken, the price is likely to retest around $84,000. From the cost distribution heatmap, investors have accumulated approximately 941,651 BTC near $84,000 over the past six months, indicating this zone is indeed a significant psychological support.

Market Pressure Comes from Multiple Directions

Analysts believe that factors driving Bitcoin into a downtrend include:

• Weakness in the derivatives market, with capital sentiment turning cautious
• Long-term holders beginning to sell, reducing bottom support
• Increased transfer of Bitcoin to trading platforms, hinting at large-scale sell-offs
• The bearish MACD crossover on the technical side creating psychological pressure

Possible Future Trends

Based on current information, if support levels are sequentially broken, Bitcoin could face the following downside path: $89,000 → $84,000 → $80,000 → $58,000. Of course, this is an inference based on analyst predictions and technical patterns; actual movements will be influenced by market sentiment, macro factors, and other variables.

It’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s market cap share remains at 59.22%, with a 24-hour trading volume of $3.583 billion, indicating market liquidity still exists. This suggests that although downside pressure is strong, a complete collapse is not necessarily imminent.

Summary

Bitcoin indeed shows technical bear market signals, with MACD bearish crossover and supply-side pressure pointing to increased risk. The performance of key support levels will determine whether a bear cycle truly begins. The predicted $58,000 is not an immediate target but a reasonable estimate based on a 50%-64% retracement. For investors, the most important focus now is whether support levels can hold and whether market sentiment will further deteriorate.