Bitcoin Rally Hinges on Weekly RSI Breaking Above 60 – What's Next for BTC

Bitcoin is currently trading at $88.21K, up 1.90% over the past 24 hours, with the crypto market watching closely for a critical technical development: the weekly RSI breaking above 60. This threshold represents a crucial inflection point that could determine whether bulls successfully drive the price toward the $94,000 resistance level or face renewed selling pressure in the coming days.

Current Price Action and Technical Positioning

Bitcoin closed the past trading period as a doji candle, reflecting indecision between buyers and sellers at current levels. The price has fluctuated between its 24-hour high of $88.86K and low of $86.27K, currently sitting near mid-range. This consolidation phase is significant because it sets up the stage for the week ahead, where the Federal Open Market Committee’s rate cut decision on Wednesday could act as a major market catalyst.

The short-term outlook remains tilted toward buyers, though the recent price action has been somewhat muted. Market participants are keenly focused on whether Bitcoin can establish momentum above the $87,200 support level to challenge the overhead resistance at $94,000.

RSI Momentum: The Key to $94K Breakthrough

The relative strength index on the daily chart is showing positive signs, with higher highs forming off the 13-period simple moving average. For bulls to maintain control, the weekly RSI above 60 becomes the critical benchmark. This indicator threshold signals genuine bullish momentum and would indicate that buying pressure is building on a longer time frame.

If the weekly RSI manages to climb above 60, it would provide strong conviction for traders to target the $94,000 level. A successful break above this resistance would open the path to $101,000 as the next major objective. However, sellers will likely attempt to slow momentum above the $96,000 level, creating a zone where profit-taking typically emerges.

Beyond $101,000, the next substantial resistance zone sits between $104,000 and $107,000 to $110,000. These upper levels represent thick resistance, meaning price discovery becomes increasingly difficult the higher Bitcoin climbs.

Support and Resistance Framework Guiding Bitcoin’s Path

On the downside, the $87,200 level must hold to prevent a retest of the critical $84,000 support. Multiple touches on this lower support zone would weaken it and make a breakdown more probable. Should $84,000 fail, Bitcoin would likely explore the $72,000 to $68,000 support zone as an intermediate floor.

Further below that, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level sits at $57,700. While this lower level is unlikely to be tested for several weeks, it represents the ultimate safety net should the current uptrend collapse completely. Currently, the 100-week simple moving average at $84,700 serves as a key reference point for determining whether Bitcoin maintains its longer-term footing.

Market Sentiment and Near-Term Catalysts

The overall market mood remains tilted bearish, despite recent bullish attempts over the past two weeks. Price action has been lackluster, and the bearish crossover on the monthly MACD oscillator continues to weigh on sentiment heading into December and January. This longer-term indicator suggests caution, though a substantial move higher could reverse the signal.

The FOMC rate cut announcement on Wednesday represents the most significant near-term catalyst. If the Fed delivers the anticipated rate cut, it could provide the spark for Bitcoin to reclaim momentum and drive higher. Conversely, if no rate cut materializes, expect the $84,000 support to come under immediate pressure.

What Traders Should Watch This Week

Bulls need to see the 13-period SMA continue providing support while the RSI climbs into bullish territory above 60 on both daily and weekly timeframes. This dual confirmation would signal that momentum is shifting decisively in favor of higher prices. As long as buyers maintain positions above key support levels heading into Wednesday’s FOMC decision, a move toward $94,000 becomes increasingly plausible.

Even if bulls manage to sustain momentum through the coming weeks, heavy resistance at $110,000 and above means any pullback would be significant and could signal the emergence of a convincing lower high on the weekly chart. Such a pattern would provide bears with renewed confidence that a longer-term top may already be in place.

The path forward depends on whether the weekly RSI can sustain momentum above 60 while Bitcoin holds its technical levels. Traders should remain vigilant around the FOMC meeting and watch for potential reversals if support fails.