When Is the Next Crypto Bull Run? Bitcoin at Critical Crossroads Near $100,000

The million-dollar question haunting crypto investors everywhere is simple: when is the next crypto bull run finally going to kick off? Right now, Bitcoin sits at a critical juncture that could provide the answer. After months of grinding higher from its lows, BTC is approaching a level that seasoned analysts believe could unlock the next major leg higher. Currently trading around $88,380 with a daily gain of 1.18%, Bitcoin is facing its biggest test yet at the $95,000 resistance zone before potentially reaching the psychologically important six-figure mark.

Widely followed analyst Dave the Wave recently highlighted the pivotal nature of this moment. According to his analysis, if Bitcoin can break through the $100,000 level—a symbolic barrier for both retail and institutional participants—the setup for an “all in” bull run scenario becomes significantly more compelling. The path forward isn’t just about technical charts; it’s about market psychology and whether bulls can finally reclaim the narrative.

Why $100,000 Is the Line in the Sand for the Bull Run

The $100,000 threshold represents far more than a nice round number. It’s a psychological watershed moment that traders and investors have been watching closely since Bitcoin first approached this level. Breaking above this price point would signal to the market that the multi-month correction from October’s $127,000 peak has truly ended and a new bull run chapter is beginning. Until Bitcoin proves it can hold above this level, many participants remain skeptical about calling an official bull run.

The path to six figures requires Bitcoin to first navigate the $95,000 resistance, which has been acting as an immediate hurdle. If bulls can clear this barrier, the psychological $100,000 mark comes into clearer focus. The broader implication? A break above $100,000 could attract fresh capital and accelerate momentum toward higher levels.

Technical Signals Point to Fading Bear Pressure

Behind the scenes, several technical developments are working in the bulls’ favor—though the picture remains mixed. Bitcoin has recently broken through a steep descending trendline that had previously constrained price action, suggesting that bearish momentum may finally be losing steam. This is a subtle but meaningful shift in market structure.

More importantly, the price action has created a “higher low” formation around the $80,000 mark. This pattern is textbook for traders watching for potential trend reversals. However, there’s a caveat: Bitcoin remains below the long-term ascending logarithmic trendline (shown in yellow on most technical charts), indicating that a decisive breakout still needs to confirm this recovery narrative.

The technical setup suggests conditions are ripening for the next crypto bull run, but confirmation requires Bitcoin to break decisively above both $95,000 and then $100,000 to shift the probability picture substantially.

Market Data: What Are the Real Odds of a Bull Run?

So what do the numbers actually say about the likelihood of the next bull run? According to prediction market Polymarket, there’s an 82% probability that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 at some point this year. That’s a remarkably high consensus among traders betting real money on the outcome.

However, the market isn’t yet pricing in a full-blown “supercycle” scenario. The odds of BTC reaching $120,000 currently stand at 50%, suggesting that while bulls are optimistic about $100,000, conviction weakens significantly at higher levels. This tells us the market believes the next crypto bull run is possible, but potentially capped at more modest levels than the explosive rallies of previous cycles.

The divergence between 82% odds for $100,000 and 50% for $120,000 reveals market psychology: participants expect the next bull run, but they’re also cautious about extrapolating too far beyond the symbolic six-figure mark. Until Bitcoin delivers on these levels, the bull run narrative remains a question mark rather than a confirmation.