Bitcoin at the Forefront of Valuation Changes: The Institutional Shift in 2026

Amid global fears of danger, Bitcoin has begun to exhibit different behaviors compared to previous years. While gold and silver are surpassing their record-breaking prices for over a decade, Bitcoin remains somewhat sidelined in the market. This contrast is not a sign of waning confidence but the result of a fundamental shift in valuation and how institutional investors perceive the most popular cryptocurrency.

Falling Prices Amid Macro Stress

Bitcoin dropped to $88,340 in the past hour, down 1.04% over 24 hours as global markets undergo widespread risk-off selling pressure. In Japan, our guests, the BOND markets, triggered a liquidation cascade spreading across crypto markets. Ethereum experienced a larger decline, falling to $2,960 with a 1.67% correction during the day.

But the most significant part of this story is not Bitcoin’s price itself. It’s what’s happening behind the numbers. Derivatives data shows traders are holding more short positions than aggressive spot selling—an indication that selling institutional players remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term value.

“Bitcoin is no longer trading like a frontier asset,” says Philippe Bekhazi, CEO of XBTO, in a discussion. “It has become an institutional-grade asset with post-IPO characteristics.” This means that as institutional adoption begins, valuation becomes more stable and strategic rather than speculative.

From Venture Thrills to Institutional Stability: The New Phase of Bitcoin

This transformation deeply affects how Bitcoin’s valuation evolves. In recent years, the cryptocurrency profited from high beta exposure and directional bets. Now, large investors are buying Bitcoin for long-term value holding, not for quick gains from price spikes.

“We’ve moved beyond the venture-style volatility era,” Bekhazi says, comparing this new phase to the post-IPO market where institutions seek stability and risk management rather than raw upside exposure. This breakthrough directly impacts how prices move.

The change is visible in where returns are generated. In October, a tariff-driven liquidation cascade wiped out over $19 billion in leveraged positions in crypto markets. Such events show how sophisticated players use advanced risk-transfer strategies instead of simply choosing a direction.

“We have large investors wanting exposure to Bitcoin, but they also need to protect against severe downside,” Bekhazi explains. Our market structure—where active managers can act as liquidity providers during volatility—accelerates the cascade effect when system strain occurs.

How Bitcoin’s Valuation Is Changing Amid Major Shifts

The most important insight from XBTO’s CEO isn’t about Bitcoin’s absolute price. It’s about its relative valuation compared to other asset classes, especially gold.

Although Bitcoin has not moved significantly in the past six months, its valuation remains stable due to structural supply dynamics and long-term demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries. This situation is similar to a financial asset with predictable cash flows—the value is based on future utility, not daily price gymnastics.

But the key question is: does Bitcoin maintain its value story amid institutional adoption, or is it becoming purely speculative play?

Gold as the World’s Money: Where Value Is Created During Macro Stress

While Bitcoin remains calm, gold and silver are surpassing their historical price points. The LBMA forecast for 2026 is the most bullish ever, predicting nearly a 40% increase in the average gold price from 2025 levels, while silver is close to doubling.

Why this transition to gold? According to Bekhazi, gold remains “the ultimate safe-haven money” for governments and central banks lacking liquidity and needing rapid scaling capability. For many traditional investors, gold offers more direct exposure to macro risk mitigation.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is becoming more important than the absolute performance of either. Relative valuation tells more about market psychology than individual price action.

The Crypto Ecosystem on Different Fronts

Beyond Bitcoin and gold dynamics, other parts of the crypto markets show mixed signals:

XRP and Institutional Interest: Although XRP rose 1.23% over the past 30 days, the spot XRP ETF attracted $91.72 million in net inflows this month. This reflects ongoing institutional participation in altcoin markets, even as aggressive spot selling does not follow.

Pudgy Penguins: From Speculation to IP Platform: Pudgy Penguins has emerged as one of the strongest NFT-native brands, shifting from speculative “digital luxury goods” to a multi-vertical consumer IP platform. Through physical partnerships (>$13M retail sales, >1 million units sold) and games (Pudgy Party reached 500K downloads in two weeks), the project demonstrates how token-based projects can grow beyond pure speculation.

Regulatory Developments: The CFTC is seeking an expanded mandate for crypto regulation but with fewer resources, according to the Office of Inspector General. Kalshi faces potential enforcement action in Massachusetts regarding sports betting activities.

The Real Challenge: Maturation or Mispricing?

The fundamental question markets are asking now is whether Bitcoin’s tepid performance reflects mature institutional adoption or a significant mispricing of value.

XBTO’s CEO is clear in his stance: the structural demand drivers remain intact. ETF inflows, corporate treasury accumulation, and predictable Bitcoin supply continue to support the long-term valuation thesis. But short-term price action is certainly halted by macro volatility.

If Bitcoin continues to be sold as a high-beta tech asset during inflation stress, the digital gold narrative will falter. If ETF inflows persist even through regular 20% corrections, it will demonstrate deep institutional conviction. And if prices rise while on-chain activity and stablecoin usage decline, it will suggest speculation-based appreciation rather than utility-driven growth.

In the coming quarters, the market will test whether Bitcoin has truly graduated to an institutional asset class or if it’s simply following larger macro headwinds. Its valuation depends on how well it adapts to this new role.