Bitcoin's drawdown from Casa does not mark the peak: historical data only reveal a mid-cycle correction.

One of the most debated questions in recent days concerns whether Bitcoin has actually reached its peak for this cycle. The movement from the $126,000 high last October to the current level of around $87,920 has sparked intense debate among bulls and bears. However, the size and duration of this drawdown tell a different story from that of a true cycle exhaustion.

When the 36% retracement looks more like a pullback than a true bear market

In the first 90 days from the October 8, 2025 high, Bitcoin experienced a 36% drawdown. At first glance, this might seem significant, but the historical context paints a very different picture. In the last three previous cycles, the steepest declines occurred within the first three months after cycle highs:

• In 2021: -51% in the first 90 days
• In 2017: -70% in the first 90 days
• In 2013: -71% in the first 90 days

This time, the drawdown has been considerably less pronounced. The depth and duration of the current retracement resemble mid-cycle pullbacks (above 30%) frequently observed during bull markets, rather than the full-cycle crashes characteristic of true bear markets.

Two previous declines over 30% in this bullish cycle: the context of the current drawdown

A crucial element in understanding the nature of this drawdown lies in the recent history of the same bullish cycle started in early 2023. In this phase, Bitcoin has already undergone two major corrections exceeding 30%:

• Correction of 2024 (post-launch of the US spot ETF): duration 147 days from peak to trough
• Correction of 2025 (related to US tariffs): duration 77 days

The current drawdown, on the other hand, has lasted 46 days assuming the $80,000 low was touched. This progression—147 days, then 77 days, now 46 days—suggests we are observing consolidation corrections rather than a true bearish phase shift.

The 50-day moving average: the bullish signal that changes the picture

A decisive technical element comes with reclaiming the 50-day moving average, currently around $89,400. This level represents a psychological turning point in the market. When the price recovers the 50-day moving average after a drawdown, analysts identify this movement as a powerful bullish signal. It suggests that buyers have regained control, momentum is turning upward, and the downtrend is losing strength.

Considering Bitcoin is already trading above this crucial level, the market is signaling a potential continuation to the upside, not exhaustion.

Institutional adoption via ETFs could invalidate the traditional four-year cycle

Bears continue to emphasize the historical pattern that Bitcoin peaks about 18 months after each halving of the mining reward (the last occurred in April 2024). However, a significant complication has emerged in recent years: institutional adoption through US spot ETFs.

Many analysts argue that this new flow of institutional capital could break the four-year boom-and-bust cycle that has characterized Bitcoin for nearly two decades. If institutional adoption continues to accelerate, it is plausible that Bitcoin will reach new highs this year, invalidating expectations based on previous cycles.

The role of dollar weakness and risk markets

A often overlooked aspect is Bitcoin’s behavior relative to the US dollar. Surprisingly, despite the recent weakening of the American currency, Bitcoin has not followed the expected pattern of revaluation. JPMorgan strategists have observed that this dollar weakness is driven by short-term flows and sentiment, not by structural changes in growth prospects or monetary policy.

As a result, Bitcoin is behaving more like a risk asset sensitive to liquidity than a reliable hedge against currency weakening. This explains why gold and emerging markets remain the preferred beneficiaries of diversification away from the dollar in this context.

The data verdict: a pause, not the end

While the debate remains lively among Bitcoin enthusiasts and skeptics, current data point toward one conclusion: we are probably facing a pause in Bitcoin’s rally, not its end. The magnitude of the drawdown, its duration, previous pullbacks within the same bullish cycle, and the technical recovery of the 50-day moving average—all these elements suggest that the feared bearish cycle may not have even begun yet. Investors would do well to pay attention to what charts and historical data are actually showing, rather than speculation about the future.