Nothing fuck to say...

Today’s decline doesn’t have an exact explanation. Currently, the somewhat normal explanation is related to gold and silver, especially silver. Silver’s market value is comparable to Nvidia, but silver trading is mainly futures with leverage, equivalent to several Nvidia. A sharp drop in silver requires pulling blood from the global market liquidity to provide margin for silver. So, it directly caused a market crash on Monday, and today’s key point is the Shanghai Silver Night Session at 21:00 in the East 8 Zone. I checked, and it also crashed; the March contract has already hit the limit down.[Taoguba]
If Shanghai Silver continues to hit the limit down, the global market’s capital pressure remains high, and liquidity will tighten. If a strong V-shaped rebound occurs, massive funds will be reallocated back into various markets.
——————
Overview of daily limit-ups in the two markets:
Announcement: Min Exposure Electric (proposed issuance of shares to purchase assets),
Smart Grid: Shun Na Shares, Hang Electric Shares, Sanbian Technology, Baiyun Electric, Jicheng Electronics, Baobian Electric, Hanlan Shares, Senyuan Electric, GD Electric, Dalian Electric Porcelain, China Academy of Electronics, Zhongchao Holdings, Tongguang Cable,
Mass Consumption: Hengdian Film & TV, Sanfu Outdoor (camping economy + performance), Tongda Chuangzhi (camping economy), Xinhua Department Store, Pearl River Piano, Youyou Food, Maoye Commercial,
Liquor: Huangtai Distillery, Jinhui Liquor

Performance: Sanfu Outdoor (camping economy + performance)

Chemicals: Wanfeng Shares
CPO: Tongding Interconnection
Shipping: Wanlin Logistics,
Robotics: Lianyue Shares
AI Marketing: Yaowang Technology (loss reduction year-over-year)
Lithium Batteries: Jinying Shares, West Shanghai
Cultivated Diamonds: Yellow River Cyclone
Real Estate: Mingdiao Shares
Computing Power: Qunxing Toys (computing power + liquor), Litong Electronics
Equity Transfer: Tianpu Shares
————————

1. Smart Grid: CCTV reports that many transformer factories are operating at full capacity, with orders scheduled until 2027. This is the logic being hyped.
   Currently, this sector is considered the strongest trend in the two markets, but its sustainability is questionable because it has already been hyped once before. The front runners will definitely benefit, but the later ones are uncertain. Many of the stocks being hyped are basically selected based on the previous wave of continuous limit-up stocks.
   There is no so-called logic; the most authentic concept stocks are actually those without a limit-up. From this, we can see a problem: A-shares are quite something.
   Of course, short-term trading emphasizes quick gains and doesn’t focus on logic. If it develops into a main trend later, then we will start to sift out the genuine from the fake. Let’s observe first.
2. Mass Consumption: This sector is basically everyone doing their own thing. For example, Hengdian Film & TV hit three consecutive limits, but no other film stocks followed. Other large consumer stocks are also fighting on their own. It’s not that this sector isn’t united, but because mass consumption covers too broad a range—clothing, food, housing, transportation, and even more. It’s already divided into four segments.
   So, this part can only rely on luck with stocks that have already adjusted well earlier. That’s all.
3. Nothing much to say about the rest. The current market situation is really speechless, and the whole world is falling. Even Korea has hit the circuit breaker… The number of limit-down stocks is nearly three times the limit-up stocks. It’s recommended to watch more and act less, mainly resting.
   ——————
4. Guotou Silver LOF: Since February 2, it has been reasonably revaluing the fund assets based on the price changes of major international silver futures markets.
   It’s like running a noodle shop mainly selling beef noodles. You price the beef noodles daily based on the beef in your warehouse. But one day, beef prices plummet 30%. Due to holidays or price caps, the cost still appears the same.
   At this point, if you still sell beef noodles at the original price, customers will think the price is too high because outside beef has dropped 30%. So from today, although the beef is locally sourced, the price of beef noodles will reference the international beef trend. For example, if beef in the warehouse drops 30%, I will reprice the beef noodles based on the real 30% change.
   This makes the true net value of the beef noodles more accurate, preventing misleading customers and avoiding manipulation for high prices.
   Beef noodles = Guotou Silver LOF fund
   Beef = Silver futures contracts
   Local wholesale market = Shanghai Futures Exchange (lagging prices)
   International market = COMEX and others (reflecting the real plunge)
   Re-estimating raw material value = reasonable revaluation of fund assets
   The essence of this is: although we trade domestically, prices should follow the global real market, not pretend the big drop didn’t happen.
   As for the outcome, it’s too cruel, and I don’t want to say.
   Hope silver recovers, which is good for everyone.
5. Oracle plans to issue up to eight tranches of USD bonds, aiming to raise $20-25 billion. I checked the bond terms; the longest is already 40 years, and the shortest starts at 3 years, indicating that the market rumors of Oracle being rejected by banks are true. Otherwise, such desperation wouldn’t happen.
   Because the bond yields are 2.25 percentage points above U.S. Treasury yields. Currently, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is 4.23%, and the 30-year is 4.86%. If calculated on a 30-year basis, the interest paid would be around 7%.
   Compared to Apple and Microsoft bonds at 5%, Oracle’s yield is about 2% higher. Even the negatively viewed Intel is only at 6.5%. Oracle’s cost is higher than Intel’s, indicating its credit rating is BBB with a negative outlook—well deserved.
   If AI giants are like a flock of sheep, Oracle is the sick sheep that must catch up with the herd to find lush pastures, or it risks being eaten by wolves (shorts). Just look at Oracle’s stock price to see.
6. Trump plans to establish a $12 billion strategic reserve for critical minerals. This targets rare earths. From this news, it’s clear that the U.S. is heavily developing its rare earth industry chain. Stocks related to rare earths in the U.S. market surged, which isn’t particularly good news for domestic rare earths.
7. SpaceX is reportedly in deep negotiations with xAI regarding a merger. If they merge, it will boost valuation and benefit SpaceX’s industry chain.
   Some may wonder, can a merger of these two companies really create a “1+1>3” effect? Actually, on the surface, it’s just an integration of two companies, but in essence, it’s Musk’s struggle for dominance over AI infrastructure. He tries to send AI into space to bypass physical and institutional restrictions on Earth, establishing technological hegemony on a new track.
   Additionally, if everyone places AI data centers in orbit, it will have a huge impact on liquid cooling and related technologies. This is something to watch carefully and is very important.
   ——————
   Today, I experienced two limit-downs, feeling a bit upset. After market close, my wife took me to pray. Over the years, I’ve visited many temples and prayed to many gods, but I also know that the most effective temple is my flesh and blood—outside of it, the gods are within.
   Good night!