#加密市场观察

Today marks the 594th day I’ve been posting updates without a break. Every post is prepared with care, not just rushed. [微笑] If you think I’m a serious person, you can follow me, and I hope my daily content can help you. The world is vast, and I am small. Hit follow so you don’t have to look hard. [微笑][微笑]

The impact of the gold and silver crash has also affected this circle. Funds not only did not flow back but also caused panic. Scams are even more tragic, with some prices approaching the 10.10 black swan level. Those who have managed to survive until now have surpassed 90% of the market.

Historically, there have been two super surges in gold and silver, and both ended badly. The first was from 1979 to 1980, when gold shot from $200 to $850 in a year. After reaching the peak, gold was halved in two months, and silver dropped by two-thirds, entering a 20-year long freeze period.
The second was from 2010 to 2011, when gold rose from $1000 to $1921, and silver again reached $50. After the surge, gold experienced a maximum retracement of 45%, and silver fell by 70%, followed by years of sideways decline.

The common point of these two instances is clear: they were not normal bull markets but emotional pricing under extreme macro pressure. Oil crises, hyperinflation, and post-financial crisis liquidity injections— the crazier the rise, the harsher the fall afterward, almost becoming a rule.
This time, the story has a new script: central banks buying gold, de-dollarization, and silver with industrial demand support. Many believe this time is different; with central banks involved, the decline will be limited. But history repeatedly shows one thing: whenever there’s such a massive surge, retracements are never gentle. Those who believe in a long gold bull run and those who think the crypto market will fall further are in the same camp.