Market Analysis and Trading Strategy: High-Confidence Opportunities in a Bearish Trend

Current Market Key Interpretation: Absolute Dominance of the Bearish Trend
1. Trend Status: Price has moved far away from all key EMAs (144 to 676), and moving averages are in a perfect bearish alignment (EMA144: 2,867.90 > current price). This is a strong signal of a one-sided downtrend.
2. Price Position: The current price is in the upper-middle part of the 24-hour range (2,156.43 - 2,395.59), currently in a "weak rebound correction after a sharp decline."
3. Core Definition: 2,395.59 (24h high) is the current strong resistance ceiling for the rebound and the critical point to determine whether the rebound can turn into a reversal.
Core Trading Opportunity: Weak Rebound for Shorting (Follow the Trend)
Logic: In a strong bearish trend, any rebound provides a better entry point for shorting. After the current price rebounds from the absolute low, it is approaching the first strong resistance zone, making it a good opportunity to follow the trend and enter short positions.
Trading Plan: Short at the resistance level during the rebound (Risk-Reward Ratio ≥ 1:2)
• Direction: Short
• Ideal Entry Zone: 2,370 - 2,390 USDT
◦ (Price rebounds near the 24-hour high resistance, which is also the golden ratio pressure zone of the recent decline rebound).
• Stop Loss: 2,420 USDT
◦ (A successful break above the 24-hour high of 2,395.59 would leave room for the rebound to continue; a break would mean the short-term downtrend structure is broken).
• Target Price: 2,180 USDT
◦ (Previous low support area, also a natural target in the downtrend).
Risk-Reward Calculation (using an entry at 2,380 as an example)
• Risk $ETH R(: 2,420 - 2,380 = 40 USDT
• Reward )R(: 2,380 - 2,180 = 200 USDT
• Risk-Reward Ratio = 1 : 5, far exceeding the 1:2 requirement.
Key Risks and Response Strategies
• Main Risk: Rebound extends beyond expectations
◦ Scenario: Price strongly breaks above 2,420 stop-loss level, continuing upward to test 2,500 or higher.
◦ Market Implication: Indicates short-term bearish momentum is exhausted, possibly entering a larger oscillation or rebound cycle.
◦ Response: Strict stop-loss. After closing the short position, switch to observation and avoid adding positions against the trend. Wait for signs of stagnation at higher levels (e.g., 2,500-2,600) before reassessing short opportunities.
• Secondary Risk: Direct breakdown and decline
◦ Scenario: Price drops below 2,156.43 (24h low) without touching the entry zone.
◦ Response: Never chase shorts. Since the space below opens but without cost advantage, wait for the first breakdown, then consider light short positions when a rebound to 2,200-2,230 occurs.
Key Price Matrix
• Resistance above: 2,395.59 )24h high, key → 2,450 → 2,500 ( psychological levels.
• Support below: 2,200 ) psychological level → 2,156.43 ( 24h low, key → 2,000 ) major psychological level.
Trade Execution and Psychological Guidelines
1. Be patient and wait for the price to reach the zone: The current price (2,340) may still have room to rebound, do not rush into the market. The core strategy is to wait for the price to rebound to the 2,370-2,390 resistance zone before looking for short signals.
2. Confirm signals: In the planned entry zone, combine 1-hour or 4-hour charts to look for signs of weakening rebound, such as long upper shadows, bearish engulfing, or MACD/DIF divergence, to improve entry success rate.
3. Position management: Given the strong trend but high volatility, recommend using a lighter position (e.g., half of usual size). Trend trading prioritizes survival over quick profits.
4. Profit protection: If the price declines as expected, near the first target of 2,180, consider reducing the position by 50% to lock in profits, and move the stop-loss of the remaining position to the entry price (break-even), aiming to test or even break below the previous low of 2,156.
Summary:
The market has entered an extreme phase dominated by the bear trend. Traders should abandon all "bottom-fishing" illusions and strictly follow the highest principle of "trend-following trading." The current plan offers an opportunity to short at the optimal risk-reward position (rebound resistance). Maintain patience and discipline. If the market rebounds beyond expectations and hits the stop-loss, accept small losses calmly, protect capital, and wait for the next trend opportunity.