What happened with Cambrian and Tencent... | Market Watch on Tuesday

During the trading session, Cambrian Explosion plummeted, taking my chips down with it, and even the index was temporarily turned green. I looked into the rumors and the small article circulating; I don’t know if I should write about it here. I’m afraid that releasing it might make me a rumor-monger. Anyway, it was rumors spread by the small article. [Taogu Ba]
The small article mentions two points:
First, Cambrian held an internal meeting and projected this year’s revenue guidance at 20 billion yuan, while institutional expectations are between 30 billion and 50 billion yuan.
Isn’t that just nonsense? Anyone with a bit of brain and a glance at Cambrian’s annual report would know that the revenue in 2025 is expected to be 6-7 billion yuan. If they could reach 20 billion in 2026, that would be a joke, let alone 30-50 billion. That’s just talking nonsense.
Second, it is said that there were issues with packaging and testing, leading to lost orders. This is even more stupid because Cambrian has no packaging and testing business at all; they focus on design and R&D. Isn’t that pure rumor-mongering?
Both points above are easily dismissed by anyone with a bit of common sense, but they still caused a stir. I’m truly speechless. I hope those spreading rumors are severely punished. (The company has already clarified this.)
Alright, let’s return to Tencent Holdings. Why did it plunge again? Including Alibaba in Hong Kong stocks also fell sharply. The rumors from the small article are:
Potential adjustment, as the financial sector (current tax rate 6%) and internet value-added services (such as in-game purchases, advertising) with high profit margins and light tax burdens may become the next targets for adjustment.
The financial sector’s ROE reaches 15%-30%, but with limited input deductions, giving it a clear tax advantage.
The gaming industry might face the risk of its tax rate aligning more with the liquor industry at 32%.
Transmission mechanism: If the tax rate increases, platforms like Tencent will find it difficult to pass on costs, squeezing profit margins.
This has affected the entire A-share gaming stocks as well. Whether true or not, that’s the situation.
——————
Market-wide limit-up overview:
Announcements: Min Exposure Electric (acquired PCB assets), Taihao Technology (terminated acquisition)
Beijing Urban Planning: Langfang Development, Urban Construction Development, Jingtou Development, Jidong Equipment, Jinyu Group,
Consumer Goods: Hengdian Film & TV (film and TV), Huangtai Liquor (white wine)
Space Photovoltaics: Shuangliang Energy Saving, Yujing Shares, Junda Shares, Lushan New Materials,
Commercial Aerospace: Tongyu Communications, Woge Optoelectronics, Dongfang Tantalum, Runbei Aerospace, Juli Sling, Aero Engine Control, Parker New Materials, Jiangshun Technology, Shenjian Shares, Aerospace Development, Hailanxin, Zaisheng Technology, Zhongchao Holdings (Smart Grid + Commercial Aerospace)
AI Marketing: Zhejiang Wenlian
CPO: Hangdian Shares (Smart Grid + CPO), Tiantong Shares, Kerei Technology, Autoway
Smart Grid: Hangdian Shares (Smart Grid + CPO), Shuna Shares, Southern Power Energy, Zhongchao Holdings (Smart Grid + Commercial Aerospace)
Chemical Industry: Wanfeng Shares, Hongbaoli, Baichuan Shares
Robotics: Jiuding Investment, Yuejian Intelligent, Xingyu Shares
Real Estate: Mingdiao Shares
Unclear: Kain Shares
————————

1. Beijing Urban Planning is a breaking news; whether it is sustained is unclear. Let’s observe for now. Based on the current market rotation rhythm, such positive news-driven speculation is hard to sustain.
2. Commercial aerospace, the logic comes from SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI, with a total valuation of $1.25 trillion. This segment is about continuing to hype space photovoltaics + commercial aerospace. As for sustainability, it mainly depends on subsequent news stimuli.
   To participate, try your luck with previously strong stocks; that’s about all you can do.
3. CPO, two logical points:
   First, Google continues to hit new highs, indicating ongoing demand for AI, which is positive for CPO.
   Second, SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI will boost AI infrastructure, where CPO is a key part. Elon Musk has repeatedly emphasized that the bottleneck for AI is not algorithms but power and heat dissipation. The core value of CPO is reducing energy consumption per bit transmission by 30%-50%, perfectly aligning with its strategy of deploying maximum computing power at the lowest cost.
   In summary, this is the situation. This segment is more suitable for medium to long-term investment; short-term trading is quite difficult.
   ——————
   That’s all. Also, note that the Hong Kong stocks are still in the red; the market may not have fully stopped falling. Be cautious. After all, there are still 18 stocks hitting the limit down. Stay alert to avoid big mistakes.