Gold trading amid geopolitical tensions: Saudi Arabia's strategy to weaken the UAE's dominance in Sudan

In January 2025, a new dimension will emerge in the long-standing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – this time in the fight over Sudan’s valuable gold resources. Amid these growing tensions, Riyadh is attempting to undermine Abu Dhabi’s current market dominance in the gold exports of the war-torn country.

The Hidden Rivalry Between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi Over Sudan’s Resource Sources

The conflict is rooted in the deep geopolitical differences between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. For decades, the Emirates controlled Sudan’s gold trade through established channels and close economic ties. However, this situation is fundamentally changing after Sudan officially accused the UAE of meddling in its civil war and severed diplomatic relations. This opens a window of opportunity for Riyadh.

Gold Exports as Leverage: Why Sudan Is Seeking New Export Channels

The economic dimension is significant. According to official data, Sudan exported about 10.9 tons of gold worth $1.05 billion in the first nine months of 2024 – much of it originally destined for the UAE. With relations broken with Abu Dhabi, Khartoum is actively seeking alternative buyers. Sudan’s State Mineral Resources Authority announced that the Saudi Gold Refinery Company is ready to immediately begin purchasing Sudanese gold. A specific volume and delivery plan have not yet been disclosed.

Saudi Gold Refinery in Focus: Business Reality vs. Political Signal

Observers interpret this move as a clear political statement – a calculated escalation of trade competition amid existing regional tensions. However, analysts warn that Saudi Arabia cannot quickly replace the UAE’s central position in Sudan’s gold sector. Some see this initiative more as a symbolic gesture than a lasting overhaul of trade structures.

Sudan’s Gold Revenue Crisis: Smuggling and Missing Revenues

For Sudan itself, this realignment is of existential importance. In a country plagued by civil war and economic collapse, gold exports are a critical source of income. At the same time, authorities warn of massive losses due to illegal smuggling – an estimated 80 percent of the country’s gold production could leave the country this way, costing Sudan up to $5 billion annually. While Saudi Arabia is increasing its economic influence, it remains unclear whether new export routes can truly compensate for the chronic resource loss caused by smuggling.