AST SpaceMobile Faces New Competition as Blue Origin Enters the Satellite Communications Race

The satellite communications industry just got more crowded. AST SpaceMobile shares fell 13.4% today following Blue Origin’s announcement of TeraWave, a new space-based broadband network that positions the company as a formidable competitor in the market. The news also weighed on EchoStar, another player in this sector. For AST SpaceMobile, which trades under the ticker ASTS on NASDAQ, this development represents both a challenge to its market position and a validation of the massive opportunity in space-based connectivity.

Blue Origin’s TeraWave: A Technical Deep Dive

Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’s space company, unveiled TeraWave today as a fully optically interconnected satellite constellation consisting of 5,408 satellites. The network is designed to deliver 6 terabits per second (Tbps) of capacity, targeting enterprises, data centers, and government entities across vast geographic regions.

The deployment timeline is critical to understanding the immediate market threat: Blue Origin won’t begin constellation deployment until the fourth quarter of 2027—nearly two years from now. This extended runway gives existing players like AST time to establish market presence and customer relationships before facing direct competition from a well-funded newcomer.

What This Means for AST SpaceMobile’s Growth Trajectory

AST SpaceMobile has been moving aggressively into monetization. The company brought in $14.7 million in revenue during the third quarter of 2025, with guidance suggesting $35-50 million for the fourth quarter. These early revenue streams demonstrate that the business model is functional, which matters as the competitive landscape intensifies.

The broader context reveals AST already operates in a competitive environment. Elon Musk’s Starlink already dominates consumer and enterprise markets, and now Blue Origin enters as a deep-pocketed competitor with government backing and aerospace expertise. Yet AST has carved out its niche by focusing on direct-to-device satellite connectivity, differentiated infrastructure that complements rather than directly duplicates Starlink’s approach.

Understanding AST’s Valuation in a Competitive Market

Here’s where investor sentiment becomes critical. AST SpaceMobile’s stock carries what analysts describe as a “sky-high valuation”—trading at approximately 200 times sales. This means the market has priced in extraordinary growth expectations. The company’s revenue is projected to reach nearly $200 million in 2026, representing roughly 13x growth from 2025 guidance midpoints.

Even at these lofty revenue targets, the 200x price-to-sales multiple reflects extreme optimism. This valuation suggests that any slowdown in execution, competitive pressure, or slower-than-expected adoption would trigger significant downward volatility. The stock’s sensitivity to news events like Blue Origin’s announcement demonstrates how thinly these growth expectations are held.

Evaluating AST SpaceMobile as an Investment

Before considering AST SpaceMobile for your portfolio, it’s worth acknowledging the investment thesis. The stock carries meaningful risk proportional to its upside potential. Historical context matters here: when The Motley Fool Stock Advisor team identified Netflix in December 2004, a $1,000 investment would have grown to $470,587 by January 2026. Similarly, identifying Nvidia in April 2005 would have yielded $1,091,605 on the same initial investment.

AST SpaceMobile presents a similar profile—high risk, potentially transformative returns if execution succeeds. However, the consensus among analyst teams is that AST SpaceMobile currently ranks outside the top-10 stock recommendations for investors seeking balanced risk-reward profiles. The Stock Advisor’s average historical return of 930% versus the S&P 500’s 192% demonstrates that careful stock selection matters significantly.

The pullback in AST’s share price today reflects existing valuation concerns more than an immediate competitive threat. Blue Origin’s late-2027 deployment date provides a window for AST to establish market leadership and customer switching costs. Still, expect continued volatility as new developments in the space communications sector emerge and investor sentiment fluctuates around execution milestones.