Fidelity Digital Assets has published a research report indicating that the classic four-year bull and bear cycle in #البيتكوين has ended.

The key findings: Bitcoin's market capitalization reached $2.5 trillion at its peak in October 2025, but the realized volatility over a one-year period hit 17, setting a new record low in January 2026. This has never happened so quickly after reaching new all-time highs in previous cycles.
The demand structure has changed dramatically. Now, public companies and investment funds hold nearly 12% of the circulating supply, with most of this accumulation occurring after 2023. 49 public companies each hold more than 1,000 Bitcoin. The leading ETF reached $75 billion in assets under management in less than two years, while the GLD fund took about seven years to reach the same figure.
On the network, the MVRV ( indicator, which measures the relationship between market value and realized value, has remained around twice the realized value throughout the current bull market. In 2013, it reached 6 times; in 2017 and 2021, it reached 4 times. If it only reaches 4 times in this cycle, that implies a market cap of $4.5 trillion and a price of about $225,000 per Bitcoin.
Fidelity also created a new indicator called the "Profit-to-Volatility Ratio," which has remained above 0.015 since late 2023, the longest period of stability in Bitcoin's history. Even the dip in February 2026 below $70,000 did not affect this indicator.
Conclusion: Major declines of 80% and peak surges may be a thing of the past. What replaces them is a slower, gradual rise with less severe pullbacks. Bitcoin is beginning to behave less like a speculative gamble and more like a mature asset.