3.9 Review, Prawn Seesaw

The two markets’ total transaction volume reached 2.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 440 billion yuan. Most individual stocks are declining, with fewer gains. In the morning, overseas markets in Japan and South Korea plummeted sharply, but after an initial drop, the A-shares rebounded. Compared to Japan and South Korea, our market remains resilient. [Taogu Ba]

Regarding themes, the most intense fermentation over the weekend was in oil and “lobster farming.” In the morning, oil stocks opened with several straight-line upward moves. During the session, Brent crude oil and domestic oil futures both surged significantly. However, early on, the market guru Dong Wang made a statement saying conflicts would end within a week. Also, the morning surge in oil stocks was quite intense, triggering a quantitative sell-off, leading to a high open followed by a decline. The plunge of China Merchants Bank’s stock, Moluo, in Hong Kong also dragged down the A-shares Moluo. Funds rotated into sectors like electricity and computing power for recovery. Currently, in the evening session, US WTI crude oil is rising sharply, and Brent crude and crude oil futures 2604 are also up. Tomorrow, we will see if the rotation and recovery continue.

Regarding oil, regardless of whether the Strait of Hormuz will open in the near future, many Middle Eastern countries’ oil reserves are now full. They will have to cut production or halt output later. To gain better negotiation leverage, both sides of the conflict are unlikely to end it quickly. The logic of oil prices remains valid, and it’s possible Brent crude will hit new historical highs. Overall, those optimistic should hold their stocks patiently, as divergence and selling pressure are common.

In terms of computing power, electricity, and lobster farming, these can be viewed as a sector. Recently, electricity stocks have shown good sustained growth, with core stocks like Shun Na hitting four consecutive limit-ups from low levels. Combined with accumulated profits in the electricity sector, tomorrow’s performance will depend on divergence. For computing power, the core stock Meili Cloud was pushed down by the sector today, losing three limit-ups. If tomorrow it can turn strong and break through Shun Na, there’s a chance for continued rise. However, the closing session saw a small climax in computing stocks. If the sector remains strong tomorrow, it might trigger more quantitative sell-offs. It’s best to buy on dips rather than chase highs.

Regarding lobster farming, a brief note: media exposure has increased interest in lobster farming recently. For individuals wanting to farm lobsters, a simple program or demo needs to be installed first. After installation, it requires significant time and money for maintenance, feeding with large amounts of tokens, and addressing many issues. If just for casual play, the results won’t be impressive. This isn’t a sector everyone can handle; it requires high professional knowledge. For now, consider it a new theme, but I have no high expectations. We’ll see how it develops.

In commercial aerospace, demand was intensively announced in March, with key meetings emphasizing this sector. After the first wave, there was a month-long adjustment. I believe the second wave is approaching. Those who favor the early stage can start paying attention now.

The above opinions are personal notes for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

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