[US Stock Market] Three B52 Bombers Have Arrived in the UK, Heavy Bombing Possible, G7 May Release Oil Reserves if Necessary, Oil Prices Rebound (Updating)

G7 Finance Ministers Hold Emergency Meeting to Discuss Coordinated Oil Reserve Release by IEA to Address Surge in Oil Prices Following Gulf Conflict

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure stated that the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency oil reserves in response to potential US-Israel war developments.

After participating in an online G7 finance ministers’ meeting in Brussels, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is that, if necessary, we will use all available means to stabilize the market, including the possible release of reserves.” He indicated that governments are closely monitoring the situation, and currently, there are no supply issues in Europe or the US.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Katayama said, “The IEA has called on countries to coordinate the release of oil reserves. Given the current situation, the G7 has agreed to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including releasing oil reserves.” Katayama added that officials from the OECD, World Bank, and IMF also participated in the discussions. The G7 will soon hold a meeting of energy ministers to discuss further actions.

As of 2022, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under OECD control are estimated to exceed 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil.

According to IEA regulations, all member countries must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports. These government-controlled stocks must be sufficient to support the country’s normal consumption for at least three months.

The Iran conflict has driven oil prices higher, with Brent crude rising nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel at one point. The gains have since narrowed, with recent increases below 10%, hovering around $100.

The three major US stock indices narrowed their declines simultaneously. The Dow fell 886 points to a low of 46,615, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5% to 6,636, and the Nasdaq declined 1.5% to 22,061.

At midday, the Dow was down 343 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.1%.

The US dollar index rose 0.7%, reaching a high of 99.695, and is now up 0.1% at 99.13. Market concerns over rising oil prices fueling inflation have decreased the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations. The US long-term Treasury yield continues to rise, currently at 4.175%. Gold prices, affected by inflation fears, fell 1.4%, currently at $5,098.8.

According to BBC reports, US B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers have gathered at Royal Air Force Fairford in the UK. Today, three B-52 bombers landed, marking the first appearance of B-52s in the UK since the conflict erupted.

The B-52 heavy bomber is a typical “frontline deployment” for the US, signaling the imminent start of large-scale air campaigns or a sharp escalation of existing conflicts. As a heavily armed “old yellow cow,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, B-52s can deliver large quantities of conventional ground-attack munitions, conducting sustained, destructive strikes on infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

Technology stocks weakened, with Tesla (US: TSLA) down nearly 4%, Amazon (US: AMZN) and Meta (US: META) both falling over 2%.

Additionally, US markets have entered daylight saving time, opening one hour earlier at 9:30 PM Hong Kong time.

Swiss bank UBS noted that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits amid volatility. This appears mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not yet caused any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are primarily due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, leading to trade blockages rather than military blockades. However, it is expected that in the coming week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supplies could face shutdowns of up to 75%.

The bank said it will continue to closely monitor the situation. Currently, there is no substantial damage to energy infrastructure, and Iran’s military strength seems to be waning. Solutions such as ensuring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain feasible. Amid the fog of war, the bank reaffirms a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining the basic expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page

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Market Highlights:

【18:20】Dow futures down 492 points, Nasdaq futures down 1.1%. Oil surges over 10%, breaking $100. Markets open one hour earlier for daylight saving time.

【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points, at 46,511; S&P 500 futures down 130 points, at 6,613; Nasdaq futures down 542 points, or 2.2%, at 24,127.

【12:07】【Iran Crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets. Senior strategist Yardeni: Probability of a market crash in US stocks by year-end increases to 35%.

【11:15】【700】Tencent reportedly plans to acquire Warner Bros. via Paramount, exploring a deal worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

【10:33】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices break $100, with NYMEX crude soaring 30%. Major Middle Eastern oil producers cut output.

【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices surge, dragging down Asia-Pacific stocks. “Black Monday” in Japan and South Korea, both down over 7%. South Korea reportedly considers implementing oil price caps.

【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan: Middle Eastern oil capacity expected to decrease by 4 million barrels per day by next weekend.

【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Alex Tedder: Oil may reach $100. “I won’t reduce energy holdings in the next two or three years.”

【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000 level. Oil price surge intensifies inflation fears.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins; oil rises 20%, surpassing $111. Trump: “Small cost.” Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (ongoing updates).

【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and US inflation data. US markets open one hour early for daylight saving time.

【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and worse-than-expected US employment data caused a major sell-off last Friday. Dow fell 945 points to 47,009; VIX volatility index surged 21.6% to 28.88. Dow closed down 453 points, S&P 500 down 1.33%, Nasdaq down 1.59%.

See US Market Close for details:

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US stocks last week, for details see: 【US Market Close】 Iran fires missiles at “Lincoln,” Brent surpasses $92, weak employment drags Dow down 453 points, Nasdaq down 1.6%