Analysis: If the US-Iran conflict continues for several months, war expenditures and debt expansion could be bullish for Bitcoin.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that macro strategist Mark Connors states that if the conflict between the United States and Iran continues for several months, the increased fiscal spending, debt expansion, and falling interest rates brought by the war could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin. Connors points out that wars typically require financing through the issuance of more government bonds, which increases the supply of U.S. dollars in the financial system, thereby weakening the value of existing currencies and benefiting non-dollar assets like Bitcoin.

Since mid-2025, the annualized growth rate of U.S. federal debt has been about 14%. If this trend continues, the debt size could continue to grow by approximately 15% year-over-year. He believes that this ongoing debt expansion is essentially a form of “currency dilution,” which has historically been favorable for Bitcoin’s performance. Since the U.S. first launched strikes against Iran, Bitcoin’s price has increased by about 3.6%. As U.S. government debt rises and reliance on short-term Treasury financing increases, policymakers may be more inclined to lower interest rates in the future to reduce interest burdens. In an environment of “falling interest rates + ongoing debt expansion,” liquidity generally improves, which has historically been a strong macroeconomic backdrop for Bitcoin. (CoinDesk)