A-shares "V-shaped recovery" for the third time in half a month! Each rebound, this direction is gaining momentum

On March 16, the market bottomed out and rebounded, with the Shenzhen Component Index closing in the green and the ChiNext Index rising over 1%. By the close, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component rose 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index increased 1.41%.

In terms of sectors, storage chip concepts collectively surged, deep-sea technology concepts strengthened, PCB concepts were active, and shipping stocks rose in the afternoon. On the downside, energy storage and green electricity concepts continued to adjust, and the coal sector declined.

Over 2,800 stocks in the entire market rose. The combined trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.33 trillion yuan, shrinking by 75 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day.

Following March 4 and March 9, today (March 16) marks the third deep V reversal of the month in A-shares.

Compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, we recommend using Wind All A or the All A average stock price as a reference↓

It’s not hard to see that the 60-day moving average, often regarded as the “bull-bear dividing line,” has been repeatedly tested three times in the past half month and remains an effective support level so far.

How should we interpret this phenomenon?

We all know that the Middle East conflict has been a continuous new negative factor suppressing the market over the past half month. No one can predict when or how it will end, nor how long the rebound will last — but the market is clearly adapting to it.

The first level of adaptation is to find the most logically fitting themes for the current situation.

Some analysts say that recently, the market has gradually clarified that the common carriers of policy support and geopolitical catalysts are related to energy security and energy substitution. For example, new energy sectors like wind power, energy storage, nuclear power, as well as coal chemical and chemical industries with “price increase logic.”

The second level of adaptation is psychological desensitization, finding a reasonable balance between “blind optimism” and “excessive panic.” When the mindset is properly adjusted, asset allocation will also become more rational.

For example, Zhonghang Securities’ research report states that, looking ahead, the Middle East conflict is unlikely to end in the short term, and oil prices may remain high. The contest for control of the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the U.S. may intensify, and A-shares will still experience volatility and fluctuations. Structurally, it is recommended to focus on dividend, stable styles, and energy-related investment opportunities.

It is worth noting that, by reviewing the market-leading directions during the last three deep V reversals, we find that some themes are indeed more proactive. Using the “Wind Hot Concept Index” as a distinction—

On March 4, the market led a rebound with “power grid equipment” and “storage chips”;

On March 9, photovoltaic equipment, computing hardware, and “small lobsters” performed well;

And today, the leading sectors again include semiconductors (including storage chips) and AI hardware, with sectors like liquor and shipping also contributing support.

Overall, as the market bottoms out and rebounds, specific sub-themes in technology tend to perform actively.

On the news front, after storage chips and packaging, the semiconductor industry chain may usher in a new wave of price increases. Mature process wafer foundries like UMC, World Advanced, and Powerchip are expected to raise prices starting as early as April, with increases of up to 10% or more.

On the other hand, Nvidia’s annual developer conference (GTC 2026), known as the “Spring Festival Gala of AI,” will be held in San Jose, California (local time March 16-19), where Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech.

CITIC Securities points out that with GTC 2026 approaching, Nvidia’s chip product lineup is expected to expand further. In addition to the full set of six core chips for the Vera Rubin AI platform, more details about Rubin Ultra chips and server cabinets may be disclosed at the conference, bringing innovations in data connectivity and power supply architecture. The launch of new products like orthogonal backplanes and CPOs is also expected to become more visible. Nvidia may also unveil the LPU inference chip, which will expand its inference capabilities alongside the Cpx chips. Furthermore, Nvidia might outline the next-generation Feynman architecture upgrade, sharing insights and judgments on future computing infrastructure and AI industry development. The market is optimistic that GTC 2026 will further strengthen confidence in the sustained growth and incremental logic of the AI industry.

Guotai Haitong Securities believes that recent geopolitical conflicts have caused significant disruptions in the secondary market, with Asia-Pacific indices experiencing various degrees of correction, and core A-share indices also affected. As the situation eases, the willingness of funds to return to technology stocks is beginning to show, and the market is gradually returning to its original investment themes.

They state that the market disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts are ultimately short-term factors. Comparing the current situation to the post-2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict market trend, short-term adjustments may serve as key opportunities for asset allocation adjustments. After the correction, the market is likely to continue along its original main line. Based on the current environment, the key areas for secondary market investment in 2026 are:

• Technology main line: Focus on core areas such as computing power, optical communications (including CPO), and AI computing hardware — these are the main directions for market funds to return and are among the long-term growth themes.

• Resources main line: Pay attention to energy storage, chemicals, power equipment, and copper, which are relatively certain sectors. Be cautious about short-term pulses in photovoltaic, wind power, and coal chemical sectors. Long-term prospects for rare earths are positive, but short-term caution is advised.

• Value stocks main line: Reconstruct investment logic by using low-volatility dividend stocks and CSI dividend indices as core holdings to obtain relatively stable dividend returns. Traditional consumption stocks are more suitable for long-term allocation, while short-term opportunities can be found in incremental service consumption.

(Source: Daily Economic News)