[Red Envelope] March 13 sentiment cooling, short-term empty position; focus on earnings growth and agriculture;

I’ve been on the forum for half a year and have held 13 live streams, three of which are about emotional cycles. I understand that market changes happen quickly, but the essence of cycles remains unchanged. Therefore, discipline is about cycle prediction and position sizing, and decision-making involves whether to hit the first board, go one-two, two-three, or aim for the highest target, or even break the board and rebound. [Taoguba]
I personally believe my biggest progress is a deep understanding of cycles combined with timing and rhythm, which has significantly increased my success rate.
If you only look at stock selection and trading, it’s not very meaningful. I base my decisions on predicted cycles—what to buy and sell (several boards). I think in such a tough environment, the success rate is still very high, including Thursday’s green power, Rees-Kanda, both of which yielded good returns. Yesterday I made three moves, and all hit the limit up.
Why is that? It’s because of extreme sensitivity and prediction of cycles. You might focus more on main lines or sectors, but during chaos and ice periods, focusing on these is pointless. When the cycle emerges, it will inevitably become the main line and core sector. People say you can’t do board hits anymore, but that’s not true. I still hit the boards quite often weekly, with a good success rate.
Therefore, I’ve always loved talking about cycles in my live streams, and my biggest improvement is timing. Currently, the cycle duration is relatively short. It’s not that it doesn’t start, right?
So, I take fewer days, a one-day trip—early morning cuts, still making money. For example, I sold green electricity at the limit-up today, while many are still watching. Why? Because the cycle isn’t right and can’t support multiple limit-ups. Clearly, Huayuan Electric Power, in the same sector, hit the limit today but lost the PK, so it needs to exit. I locked in over 8% profit; what about you? The gap is in cognition. In my mind, each step of this position represents what I’ve mentally simulated. If it’s smooth, I stay; if not, I exit. It’s that simple.
Similarly, Ningbo Construction. I really did it for the competition, sharing every step of my analysis, reaching the ultimate level of transparency. That’s why I could almost exit without loss in the early session—extreme cognition and prediction. This stock, entry point, exit point—very sharp. I believe no one else does better than me in buying and selling the same stock on the same day. Not to brag, but it’s practically a textbook. You should learn from these, not just watch the rise and fall.
My entry and exit points are very precise. If you learn these, you won’t suffer big losses even if you do it perfectly. I’m better at stock selection and timing.
If you do it well, any cycle or market has stocks to trade, and you won’t lose much—at most, you won’t earn much. That’s the confidence in your cognition.
Just like being a top player in a field, no matter how bad the market, you’ll only earn less, not lose money—same principle.
You should focus on whether you are sufficiently excellent and whether your cognition is solid enough. The rest is just riding the wave (main rising period) and making big money!
If this system is ineffective or useless, I wouldn’t work so hard. Any stock I recommend at key points is okay. So, I care more about timing.
Wouldn’t survive in wartime? Therefore, if the timing isn’t right, you need to adjust your approach—earn less or play for break-even—just stay alive.

Again, high points and low points are moving downward, what does that mean? It’s another cold snap—spring isn’t warm this year.
I’ve been asking you, what cycle are we in? The most accurate answer is: late winter, early spring. A cold snap in spring means it’s still snowing, so it’s like winter.

The intraday chart held for a day but also plunged at the close. Because quant strategies dislike holding positions over the weekend; they profit from information gaps. Who knows what news will ferment over the weekend?
They keep telling everyone to do value investing, but quant strategies are just day-trading—cutting on the left, cutting on the right. You value it, right? They just cut, never considering the bigger picture. Now you see the funds are following the hot money, at least still drinking the soup. Quant strategies are about digging into the roots—eating your flesh, drinking your blood—no concept of a bigger pattern.
Why has there been no mainline market trend or warming up? Because they cut too aggressively. The big players can’t push prices up, waiting for the flowers to bloom. Got it? Now you know who the bad guys are. At least the hot money still cares about growth (main line formation).

Today’s market continues to oscillate and adjust, accelerating downward at the close.
Chemicals and wind power are the two main sectors attracting capital, while the previously hot computing sector is retreating collectively. The market’s structural features are becoming more extreme.

· Index performance: Shanghai Composite down 0.01%, Shenzhen Component down 0.65%, ChiNext down 0.22%. All three indices oscillated lower throughout the day, with signs of accelerated plunge at the close.
· Volume: Total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.4 trillion yuan, shrinking by 416 billion compared to yesterday. Liquidity remains ample, but the reduced volume indicates decreased risk appetite.
· Sentiment divergence intensifies: Over 3,800 stocks declined across the market, with more than 3,000 stocks falling for the third consecutive day. However, some stocks still hit daily limits, with extreme concentration in main lines (chemical, wind, nuclear fusion). Non-mainline stocks suffered heavy losses, with significant loss effects. 59 stocks hit the limit up, 13 hit the limit down. Market sentiment is cooling; cash is preferable.

The highest potential stocks are in chemical and restructuring themes, with nearly 40% of consecutive limit-ups, but high-flying trend stocks are releasing risk.
· Leading stocks:
· Taurus Chemical: the absolute market sentiment icon. Today’s strong 6-limit-up in 10 days, with three consecutive limit-ups, and price reaching new highs. It has detached from fundamentals and become a standalone “monster stock,” a stabilizer for the chemical price increase theme.
· Chain of limit-ups:
· 5-limit-up: Zhongnan Culture. M&A and restructuring concept. Opened with a one-word limit-up but saw large volume throughout the day, indicating a loosening of chips. Will face significant divergence tomorrow.
· 4-limit-up: Huadian Energy. Power cooperation/green energy concept. Today’s 4-limit-up, but sector internal differentiation increased.
· 2-limit-up: Luhua Technology, Sanfangxiang (chemical), Dajin Heavy Industry (wind), Zhengzhou Coal & Electricity (coal), Farsun (8 limit-ups in 15 days, 2-limit-up).
Today’s market: avoid stocks with 2 or more limit-ups on Monday—absolutely avoid!
· Risk warning: High-flying trend stocks are under continued downward pressure. Zhangyuan Tungsten, Jiang Tung Equipment, Huasheng Tiancheng, Guangxun Technology, etc., hit the limit down. Be alert to further declines in high-level stagnating stocks.

⚡ Sector Breakdown

1. Chemicals (strongest main line): continued surge of limit-ups. The driving logic remains supply contraction expectations and price hikes caused by international geopolitical conflicts (methanol futures soared). Besides Taurus Chemical, Luhua Technology and Sanfangxiang hit 2-limit-ups; stocks like Jinjingda, Hongbaoli, Chitianhua also hit the limit. Sector chain remains intact, but beware of emotional transmission at the close.
2. Wind Power (policy + external demand dual drive): today’s hottest new sector. Driven by the UK’s removal of 33 wind power component import tariffs from April 1, aiming to release 22 billion pounds of investment. Dajin Heavy Industry hit 2-limit-ups; Tongyu Heavy Industry soared 20cm limit; TianShun Wind Power, Jixin Technology, and others hit the limit. Sector capacity is large, with resonance between institutions and hot money, showing potential to become a new main line.
3. Controlled Nuclear Fusion (event-driven): rapid strength during the session. Stimulated by China’s announcement of joining the “Triple Nuclear Energy Declaration.” Lansi Heavy Equipment, China Nuclear Construction, Jiangsu Shentong hit the limit. This theme is event-driven; sustainability remains to be seen, not suitable for chasing high. Basically, fear of quant liquidation, aiming for a wave like LED in optoelectronics!

⚠️ Risk Signals
· Large-scale declines in high-level stocks: computing leasing (Meili Yun, Huasheng Tiancheng hit limit down), non-ferrous tungsten (Zhongwuhigh, Zhangyuan Tungsten hit limit down), etc., indicating a collective retreat of previous hot sectors and spreading loss effects.
· Accelerated plunge at the close: Index plunged rapidly at the end of the day. If Monday can’t recover, more profit-taking may follow.
Today’s market is highly differentiated; focusing on main lines (chemical, wind) is bullish, missing them (computing, small metals) is bearish. Strategy: either focus on core leaders (like Taurus Chemical, Dajin Heavy Industry) or hunt for low-level rebound stocks (wind power chain). Avoid chasing high and getting left behind, and beware of high-level stocks’ further declines spreading to main lines.

Therefore, today I won’t pick stocks. Watch the opening of three stocks on Monday, choose the weak to leave the strong, or do a one-day arbitrage—no big gains, no limit-ups, sell everything.

If Monday’s market doesn’t warm up, I might go back to arbitrage in strong trend stocks.

Qianyu System’s six-word mantra: Timing > Trend > Stock!
Timing: Align with environment cycles and emotional cycles!
Trend: Follow the profit effect! Chain-ups, strong trends, trade with whoever is making money!
Stock: Select leading stocks! Sector leaders, trend leaders, all are fine;

Focus on main line market opportunities, stocks with market strength;
Use position management + emotional nodes + decisive action to achieve stable profits!
Dazzled by many options, he’s just distracting himself—while I profit!
Adapt to change, follow shifts, predict opponents’ predictions, and harvest their gains!

I’ve also written about basic knowledge systems in previous posts, which I will continue to update when I have free time. What else would you like me to write? Feel free to leave comments.
Click the links below to view:
How to analyze stock fundamentals ()
How to identify leading stocks and profit from them ()
How to understand auction bidding ()
How to quickly read intraday charts (trend stocks) ()
Sharing trend trading strategies suitable for office workers ()
How to understand the issue of missed opportunities ()

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