3.17 Tomorrow's Core Market Strategy

If friends find this article helpful, please give a like, support, and tips. 100 points (2 yuan) may not cover the minimum transaction fee, but it helps my articles rank higher, connect with more good friends, and write better content. [Taogu Bar]

The essence of short-term trading is “leveraging to make quick money”—using hot topics, capital synergy, and trend inertia.

You must adhere to three iron rules:

Only trade strong stocks, avoid weak ones;
Go long online, observe offline, exit if breaking support, buy and sell quickly;
Focus on core stocks, stay away from miscellaneous ones.

1. What is the core, and what are the miscellaneous stocks?

2. How to identify and operate on the “core”?

Step 1: Lock in the strongest sector of the day
After 30 minutes of opening, check the “Sector Gain List” on Tonghuashun or Eastmoney.
Exclude one-day speculative themes, choose sectors with policies, events, and logical continuous catalysts.
Pay attention to sectors with ≥3 stocks hitting the daily limit, and complete tiers (first limit, second limit).

Step 2: Find the core within the strongest sector
Space Dragon: The stock with the highest number of consecutive limit-ups within the sector (e.g., 5 consecutive limit-ups).
Popularity Dragon: The stock with the largest trading volume and highest discussion within the sector (not necessarily the most consecutive limit-ups).
Trend Dragon: The solid stocks in the sector that are steadily rising along the 5-day/10-day moving averages.

Step 3: Implement the ultimate discipline of “focusing on the core”
Buy only the first place: If conditions permit, only buy the top stock in the sector. If you dare not buy the leader, better not trade this sector.
Buy on divergence, sell on consensus:
Buy point: When the core leader first shows healthy divergence (e.g., rapid rebound after sharp decline at open, quick recovery after breaking support).
Sell point: When the core leader accelerates and consensus turns bullish (e.g., first large volume after a continuous limit-up, or high-level volume stagnation).
Cut loss immediately if the stock breaks support: For stocks with consecutive limit-ups, if they fail to hit the limit the same day (break support), exit immediately the next day without hope.

3. How to thoroughly “stay away from miscellaneous stocks”?

Proactively block: Only keep core targets in your watchlist, do not look at the gain list beyond the last few pages.
Resist temptation: When miscellaneous stocks suddenly surge, ask yourself: “Is it the leader? If not, why is it rising?” (Usually: to unload).
Position constraint: Even if trying small positions to test miscellaneous stocks, strictly limit single-stock position to no more than 2% of total capital, to prevent large losses.
Review and reflect: If losses come from miscellaneous stocks, record it in your trading journal, reinforce the “miscellaneous = loss” muscle memory.

Core philosophy

In short-term markets, capital and attention are scarce resources, always gathering where the most dazzling. “Core” stocks enjoy liquidity and sentiment premiums, while “miscellaneous” stocks bear liquidity discounts and selling pressure fears. Your task is not to find undervalued stocks but to dance with the market’s strongest funds in full view, and leave first before the music changes.

Remember: In short-term trading, every mercy or luck on miscellaneous stocks is a betrayal of your capital. The biggest profits come from the core, and the biggest losses often stem from refusing to cut losses on miscellaneous stocks.

There are only a few stocks to choose from each day. Memorizing buy points isn’t hard; otherwise, you can copy them during trading, buy when strategy signals appear, and stay out otherwise. This is much more efficient than most people busying themselves with various activities daily.

Today’s position: No holdings

Yesterday’s strategy:

1. China Power Energy did not hit the limit all day, not in line with strategy, PASS

2. Jinniu Chemical hit the limit early but lacked turnover, so no buy point. Wait until turnover is sufficient. The chemical sector then plunged, so no buy points appeared. I also closed all positions at the end of the day.

3. Zhongnan Culture is similar to Wangli Security; I explained this in last weekend’s article. Friends who read carefully wouldn’t be fooled.

Tomorrow’s strategy:

Market analysis for March 16

1. Sentiment cycle positioning

Today’s market showed extreme features: “Index divergence, sentiment at the ice point.”
Shanghai Composite Index declined slightly by 0.26% with low volume; ChiNext led gains at 1.41%. Total market turnover was 2.33 trillion yuan, about 75 billion less than last Friday. Funds withdrew from high-level cyclical resource stocks (precious metals, steel, coal) and flowed into low-level tech growth sectors.

Core sentiment indicators show the market is near the end of a retreat phase:

Loss effect spreading: Zhongnan Culture (5 limit-ups) hit the limit-down; popular stocks like Yunnan Energy, China Power Construction also hit the limit-down, showing strong negative feedback on high-priced stocks.

Consecutive limit-up ecosystem near collapse: Only 44 non-ST stocks hit the limit today, with only 6 stocks maintaining consecutive limit-ups, and the success rate of upgrading to consecutive limit-ups is only 25% (excluding ST stocks). Even more severe, the overall success rate (yesterday’s limit-up stocks successfully hitting the limit today) is only 10.17%, with a break rate of 32.35%. This means 90% of yesterday’s limit-up stocks cannot continue today, making short-term relay trading extremely difficult.

Cycle judgment: The market is in a chaotic “old cycle (power, resources) retreating at the end, new cycle testing at the beginning” phase. Under extreme risk aversion, active funds are forced into “island-style” grouping in two logical directions: robotics/ intelligent manufacturing and storage chips. This is the riskiest phase with the fewest opportunities; operation should focus on trial and error and defense, with protecting capital as the top priority.

2. Analysis of consecutive limit-up tiers and core main lines

3. Consecutive limit-up tiers (highly segmented, focus on low positions)

Three-limit-up stocks (highest market standard):

Farsight (000890): Fiber optic cables + environmental equipment. Closed at the limit in the afternoon, 16 days with 9 limit-ups, a high-level rebound pattern. As one of the top markers, it’s a sentiment indicator, but with complex chip structure, needs to test for volume explosion tomorrow.

Sanfangxiang (600370): Chemical (PTA) + robotics concept. Rapid early limit-up, relatively healthy pattern. Same height as Farsight but different branch, competing with each other.

Two-limit-up stocks:

Yaxiang Integration (603929): IC cleanroom + storage chips. Accelerated with reduced volume, key link in storage chip industry chain, with strong sector effect today.

Chitianhua (600227): Chemical (methanol/urea). Volume breakout and rebound, turnover 2.09 billion, high turnover rate of 34.48%, needs to weaken then strengthen tomorrow.

Jingtou Development (600683): Real estate (Beijing state-owned). One-word limit-up, good chip locking, but with strong independent theme.

Xihua Technology (603248): Wind power. End-of-day limit-up, moderate strength, sector rotation for supplementary gains.

High-level trend stocks: Shun Na Shares (5 limit-ups in 9 days). Today hit the limit, but the overall power sector is retreating; more of an individual stock behavior.

2. Market main line analysis (the only active line during the ice point)

The strongest main line: Storage chips. Today’s sector exploded with limit-ups, with stocks like Langke Technology (20cm), Zhaoyi Innovation, Taiji Industrial, Jintai Solar (20cm) hitting the first limit-up. The core logic is “storage chip price increase” (mainstream DDR4 contract prices up 83% by September 2025) and “domestic substitution driven by AI computing power demand.” This is the only new direction today with sector effect and tiers (Yaxiang Integration 2-tier + multiple first limit-ups).

Secondary main line: Robotics/ intelligent manufacturing. Represented by Sanfangxiang and Farsight, with first limit-ups from Yiben Technology, Victory Precision, Yutong Technology. Logic follows the “new quality productivity” policy expectation, becoming a fund grouping direction during the ice point.

Sub-lines and independent stocks: Deep Sea Technology (news-driven), shipping, agriculture, state-owned enterprise reform, etc., mostly individual stocks or one-day rotations, lacking sustainability and sector tiers, with lower value.

3. Tomorrow’s strategy

Core strategy: Focus on trialing new main lines, strictly control positions, avoid chasing highs.

The current market is in an extreme ice point; all operations must be based on strict discipline. The top priority is to prevent losses from retreating stocks at high levels.

① Main focus: Storage chips “1 into 2.” Tomorrow’s only worthwhile relay direction. Focus on stocks with early limit-up times, genuine logic, moderate size, such as Langke Technology, Zhaoyi Innovation, Taiji Industrial.

Buy point: Only on “volume-driven rebound.” Wait for full turnover (e.g., about 1.5 times today’s volume), confirm sector strength is not declining (no core stocks collapsing), then “break the limit” to buy. Absolutely avoid chasing high midstream.

② Observation focus: The competition between two 3-limit-up stocks. Watch Farsight and Sanfangxiang’s performance during tomorrow’s pre-market and opening. If one can strongly and volume-wise upgrade (not just a quick limit or one-word limit), and the sector supports, consider very small positions for trial. If both weaken, give up completely.

4. Risk control discipline

Avoidance directions:

Decisively avoid: all retreating high-level stocks and related sectors (power, cyclical resources).
Cautiously avoid: today’s low-volume accelerated consecutive limit-up stocks (like Yaxiang Integration), as volume decline during the ice point increases risk.
Abandon: non-main line first limit-ups or rotation sectors, do not watch.

Position management: During trial and error, reduce single-trade positions. If tomorrow’s overall consecutive limit-up success rate (especially 1 into 2) remains below 30%, or new high stocks hit limit-down, further shrink positions or stay in cash.

Conditions for staying out: If storage chip sector opens with multiple core stocks down, or Yaxiang Integration weakens rapidly, indicating failure of the new main line trial, abandon all buy plans and stay in cash.

Mindset: During the ice point, “not being able to buy is normal; better to miss than make mistakes.” Protect capital as the top priority, wait for clear market sentiment recovery signals (e.g., consecutive increase in limit-up success rate over 20%, sharp reduction in limit-down stocks, sustained new main line trends) before increasing positions.

Your support is mutual; your encouragement is my motivation to keep writing and updating. I hope we can all learn more from each other in the days ahead!

Thanks to the 11 friends @打死小强哥 @热辣韭菜 @摸鱼小L @冰山续集 @北极星112 @莫等闲人 @小老鼠142 @天体二十九 @RocLeo @天崩地裂惆怅 @老倒霉蛋咯 for their tips yesterday, and the 7 friends @RocLeo @先手寂寞 @多明智20220202 @Shmily96 @天体二十九 @冰山续集 @刘崇阳高端医美设备 for their support.

Disclaimer: The stocks and opinions involved do not constitute investment advice. They are personal review records, and any operations based on them are at your own risk. (Stock market involves risks; invest cautiously.)