Is Guangzhou and Shenzhen Real Estate Market Experiencing a "Minor Spring"? Second-hand Home Transactions Far Exceed New Homes, with Some "Bargain Deals" Closing in Less Than a Week

March has traditionally been the peak season for the real estate market, and the strength of the “Golden March and Silver April” directly influences the market trend for the entire year.

In early 2026, Guangzhou and Shenzhen successively emerged from the low transaction period after the Spring Festival holiday, with both viewing and transaction volumes rising in tandem, and market warmth continuing to spread.

According to visits to some properties, conversations with real estate agents, and insights from multiple research institutions, the current “small spring” in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has effectively arrived. Meanwhile, the market logic has also undergone significant changes: some popular “bargain listings” (properties with prices significantly lower than similar properties in the same area, offering high cost-performance) are gradually disappearing, and the bargaining space for listed properties is shrinking.

Both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are leading the secondary market, becoming the main drivers of this warming trend. The new home market, however, shows a deep divide: Shenzhen’s new home supply has decreased year-over-year since the beginning of the year; luxury homes in core Guangzhou are hot, while first-time buyers are still relying on discounts to drive sales. The market pattern has reversed between the primary and secondary markets, with structural changes in supply, forming the most distinctive feature of this “small spring.”

A sales office of a property for sale in the Xin’an area, Bao’an, Shenzhen. Image source: Daily Economic News reporter Chen Ronghao

Secondary Market Leads the “Small Spring”

This round of Guangzhou-Shenzhen real estate “small spring” is primarily driven by the secondary market, with the fundamental market logic rewritten.

From data to frontline experience, secondary homes are leading the recovery.

Shenzhen’s secondary market was the first to ignite the trend, becoming the core engine of this revival. According to monitoring by LeYouJia, after the Spring Festival, secondary home contract volumes surged by 132% month-over-month, reaching the highest level since late March 2024. As of February 2026, the average transaction price for Shenzhen secondary residential properties has rebounded to 62,000 yuan per square meter.

Image source: Shenzhen LeYouJia Research Center

Data from Beike Research Institute also shows a clear trend: from March 2 to 8, Shenzhen’s secondary home contract volume increased by 118% month-over-month, with a single-day transaction volume on March 8 reaching a nearly one-year high, continuing to rise for two consecutive weeks.

Additionally, market sentiment is improving in tandem. According to the latest data from Shenzhen Beike Research Institute, in February, the number of secondary homes listed by their partner stores decreased by 3.3% year-over-year, with irrational selling significantly reduced, and the market gradually entering a healthy cycle of “expectation strengthening—supply optimization—price stabilization.”

Image source: Beike Research Institute

“Currently, high-quality school district homes and properties with low total prices and high rental yields are recovering most noticeably. For example, in our area, the Liyuan main campus school district homes, like the 83-square-meter three-bedroom at Yuanling Garden, are in higher demand after the holiday, with both inquiries and transactions increasing compared to before the holiday,” said Liu Anying, a senior agent in the Yu Lin area of Futian, Shenzhen, on March 14.

Liu Anying mentioned that the transaction speed for “bargain listings” in the secondary market has been compressed into a relatively short cycle, with some listings selling in less than a week. “For example, at Hanling Court in Futian, a roughly 108-square-meter three-bedroom, the owner’s listed price is generally above 8.2 million yuan, which translates to about 77,400 yuan per square meter. Some owners are eager to sell, and a listing at 7.55 million yuan can be sold in about a week,” Liu said.

Image showing some secondary listings in CuiZhu area, Luohu, Shenzhen. Image source: Daily Economic News reporter Chen Ronghao

In fact, similar phenomena are also present in Luohu, Shenzhen. As transaction volumes increase, owners’ attitudes become more stable, and they are less anxious to sell, which narrows bargaining space.

For example, a two-bedroom unit of 47.84 square meters in CuiZhu Yuan, Luohu, visited by the reporter at the end of last year, was initially listed at 2.45 million yuan. An agent indicated that the lowest price could be around 2.3 million yuan. By March this year, the agent told the reporter that the lowest asking price was 2.37 million yuan.

The secondary market in Guangzhou is also experiencing a strong rebound.

Data from Beike shows that on March 8, Guangzhou’s secondary market closed 247 transactions, up 25.4% from the previous day; the total transactions from March 2 to 8 reached 849 units, an 118.8% increase week-over-week. Post-holiday demand has been released in full, with continued increases in viewings at agencies. The Guangzhou Real Estate Agency Association’s March manager index jumped 43.5 points to 71.78, indicating strong confidence in the “small spring.”

According to Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, both Guangzhou and Shenzhen show the core characteristic of “second-hand homes outperforming new homes.” The number of new listings for secondary homes has decreased year-over-year, market sentiment continues to improve, and this also stimulates demand for “selling old and buying new,” creating a smoother market cycle.

Xiao Xiaoping, director of Beike Research Institute in Shenzhen, also expressed similar views. He believes this revival is not a short-term policy-driven rebound but a resonance of policy optimization, confidence restoration, and concentrated release of demand for self-occupation. The continued volume increase in secondary homes and the simultaneous rise in new home sales make this “small spring” more solidly rooted.

Structural Trends in the New Home Market

Unlike the overall enthusiasm in the secondary market, the new home market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has not experienced a broad price increase but rather a typical “structural” trend.

For example, Guangzhou’s luxury market has repeatedly set new transaction records, boosting nearby new home viewing interest. In February, the Tianhe Ma Chang plot sold for 23.604 billion yuan at a premium of 26.6%, with a residential land price of about 85,500 yuan per square meter, setting a new record for Guangzhou.

On March 2, a 670-square-meter penthouse in Poly Yuexi Bay, Zhujiang New Town, sold for 187 million yuan, with a unit price of about 280,000 yuan per square meter, breaking the local record for top-tier luxury homes. On March 9, five units in Galaxy Bay Peninsula No. 5, totaling 7.187 billion yuan, sold in a single day, reflecting unprecedented demand for luxury homes in the core area.

In contrast, the primary market for affordable new homes in Guangzhou shows a clear “discount-driven” trend.

Real estate agent Luo Jiamin told reporters that many first-time buyer projects in Guangzhou are now using discounts and special offers to attract buyers. “Without discounts, it’s hard to sell,” he said.

“For example, the pre-sale price of the Haoyuan Bay in Huangpu has been reduced to starting at 19,000 yuan per square meter, with three options—raw, semi-furnished, and fully furnished—to attract buyers. The limited-time discount at Liwan New World Tiánfù is directly 14% off, as low as 38,000 yuan per square meter,” Luo added. “The market is very pragmatic now. If you don’t offer a fixed price or real discounts, even with many viewers, sales will be difficult.”

According to Zhongyuan Research’s data, as of the end of February 2026, Guangzhou’s narrow inventory was 14.164 million square meters, a decrease of 130,000 square meters from January. Due to reduced new supply in key areas in February, the market mainly absorbed existing stock, with inventory decreasing for four consecutive months.

In Shenzhen, since 2026, there has been a noticeable slowdown in new home supply. According to Midland Realty, only nine residential projects obtained pre-sale permits this year, far fewer than the 12 projects in the same period last year.

This slower pace of new project launches prevents large-scale market entry, resulting in overall new home transactions being significantly lower than secondary transactions. The market shows a pattern of core areas maintaining volume and stable prices, while first-time buyer areas rely on price reductions to drive volume, forming a structurally warming trend.

According to Centaline Data, as of March 12, Shenzhen’s total transactions for commercial residential properties reached 964 units, with 1,703 secondary units transferred.

Some Shenzhen projects released hot sales posters in March

Although overall new home transactions in Shenzhen are weaker than secondary sales, the reporter noted that many projects have released promotional posters for hot sales since March. For example, Longhua’s HongRongYuan GuanCheng sold 41 units on March 7-8; YuanYongCheng·ChengMing Garden sold 39 units last week; China State Construction’s PengChen YunZhu sold 32 units in one week.

“With high-quality land parcels in core cities gradually coming to market in 2025, and some developers increasing promotional efforts, market demand is expected to gradually release in March. The ‘small spring’ in core cities remains promising,” said Zhongzhi Research Institute.