Dong Chengfei, latest statement! The market will be very "chaotic" this year, also discussed real estate stocks

On March 14th, Ruijun Asset held the 2026 Strategy Exchange Conference in Shanghai.

Partner and Chief Research Officer of Ruijun Asset, Dong Chengfei, delivered a keynote speech, sharing his latest thoughts on investment from both himself and Ruijun. When discussing market outlooks, Dong Chengfei summarized with the word “chaos,” focusing on the smart automotive and real estate sectors. He believes smart cars are likely to become a profitable business, while risks in the real estate sector have been fully released, making real estate stocks currently high-risk, high-reward investments.

Smart Cars Will Become a Profitable Business

In this year’s “RuiSuoSi” (Ruijun Asset’s investment research column), Dong Chengfei posed three major questions: 1. What changes will automotive intelligence bring? 2. Real estate or real estate industry chain? 3. Where are the once-hot stocks now?

During his speech, Dong Chengfei dedicated more time to the smart automotive industry. He believes that the electrification of vehicles is nearing its end, with domestic brands rising and intense competition, but the intelligence of cars has just begun.

To explore how intelligence might change the automotive industry, Dong Chengfei reviewed the development of smart phones, TVs, and cleaning tools, drawing a series of insights and conclusions. He summarized that the process of intelligence is essentially increasing the proportion of software and algorithms in product added value; it brings new value to consumers, thus improving business models to some extent. The degree of improvement depends on the difficulty of smart products, the depth of iteration, and the extent of functional expansion. There appears to be no direct correlation between intelligence and industry concentration. Intelligence can enhance corporate profitability and secondary market valuation levels.

Dong Chengfei believes that current smart cars are still in their infancy, but in the future, smart cars are likely to be a profitable business, similar to smartphones—where the winners may be AI companies disguised as car manufacturers. He further analyzed that automotive intelligence is a process of AI reshaping the automotive industry, representing AI’s first entry-level application in the physical world. Once consumers are freed from driving tasks, the interaction experience between cars and consumers becomes key, which will change the current homogenization and widen the differentiation among brands. The process of intelligence also involves rapid iteration and brutal reshuffling; capable companies can gain premium pricing and industry chain influence through differentiated product experiences, while less capable ones may become OEMs or exit the market entirely. If smart cars can provide services beyond basic driving, like a good dedicated driver, consumers will pay for it, and companies can earn stable value-added service income.

Real Estate Stocks Are Now High-Risk, High-Reward Investments

Dong Chengfei has been paying attention to the real estate industry since 2024, having previously proposed the idea of a bottoming phase. However, last year’s real estate data—sales volume and prices—fell below his expectations. Since 2025, the residential market has continued to de-stock, with new and second-hand home transactions stabilizing, and rental yields supporting home prices. Currently, Dong Chengfei remains highly focused on real estate.

He analyzed that over time, the beta options for real estate upward movement are increasing. Looking at international cases, the decline in the domestic market has been significant, and there are clear signs of policy shifts. In the real estate industry, a winner-takes-all scenario may emerge. Based on the US experience, industry concentration will increase, market recovery is underway, and relevant companies have growth potential. The upstream and downstream building materials industry also offers safe allocation options, with stabilized revenues, restored profits, and improved asset quality. The willingness of related companies to pay dividends is also strengthening.

Regarding the real estate sector, Dong Chengfei provided his latest thoughts and conclusions. He believes that both volume and prices in the industry are near bottom levels, but there is no particular view on when a reversal might occur—it’s more like an option. Risks in the real estate sector have been fully released; some companies may survive as winners, but due to the sector’s leverage characteristics, it remains a high-risk, high-reward investment. The related industry chain offers medium-risk, moderate-return opportunities.

In the final part of his speech, Dong Chengfei reviewed several major historical rallies in A-shares. He believes that this AI wave could enable China’s capital markets to produce more outstanding companies.

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Editor: Shi Xiuzhen SF183