Emotion at Rock Bottom—Would You Enter the Game? Choosing Direction is Key! (2026.03.16 Review)

Data Review: [Taogu Ba]
Today’s Shanghai Composite Index -0.26%, ChiNext Index +1.41%, STAR Market 50 Index +0.83%, total market turnover 23.253 billion yuan, 2,843 stocks up, 2,494 stocks down, market-wide turnover decreased by 75 billion yuan compared to yesterday.

Overall Market Sentiment: Weak Rotation
Number of limit-up stocks: 46 (yesterday: 59)
Number of stocks hitting the 20% limit-up: 5 (yesterday: 2)
Number of consecutive limit-up stocks: 6 (yesterday: 8)
Number of limit-down stocks: 5 (yesterday: 13)
Today’s break rate: 32.4% (yesterday: 23.4%)
Success rate of first limit-up board upgrade: 8.7% (yesterday: 11.3%)

Today’s Major Decliners
Luhua Technology -13%, Chemical Industry
Before 9:45 AM opening, whether major decliners from the previous day can quickly recover is an auxiliary signal for sector recovery.

Today’s Unusually High Trading Volume Stocks in Bidding
None

Overall Sector Chain Summary:
3-limit: Sanfangxiang (PTA, Chemical), Farsight (Optical Modules)
2-limit: Yaxiang Integration (Chips & Semiconductors), Xihua Technology (Wind Power Storage), Jingtou Development (Restructuring), Chitianhua (Methanol, Chemical)

1. Sentiment Cycle and Key Node Analysis:
Decrease in limit-up stocks at low positions approaching the limit, decrease in consecutive limit-up stocks at low positions, significant increase in break rate, decrease in limit-down stocks at low positions, the ratio of total limit-up transaction amount to market total is around 0.25, approaching the limit zone. Compared to yesterday, the notable change is the sharp increase in break rate, indicating continued divergence and weak market sentiment. The focus is on today’s multiple data approaching historical extreme levels, with all funds in a resting phase. Currently, it is judged as a chaotic cycle rotation at a turning point.

Sentiment Temperature: Ice Point at 10

Tomorrow’s Short-term Market Sentiment Anchor Stocks:
Shun Na Co., Jinniu Chemical
Before 9:45 AM opening, the positive/negative feedback and extreme sentiment anchoring of these stocks serve as signals for ultra-short-term bullish or bearish market temperature.

Recent Strong Sector. The Most Strong Sector of the Day. Intra-day Recognizable Stocks Summary:

Recent Sector Effect Timeline:

2. Capital Flow Analysis:

Loss Effect -
Concentrated in sectors like chemicals, electricity, wind power storage, indicating recent weak divergence in hot topics.
Position and structure: mid-to-high trend structures in partial distribution, represented by Yunnan Energy Investment, China Power Construction, China Energy Construction.

Profit Effect -
No obvious profit effect; partial distribution across digital currency, storage, aquaculture, planting, chips & semiconductors, indicating sector rotation and capital hedging.
Position and structure: no clear profit effect; some trend and low-position structures, represented by Baiwei Storage, GigaDevice, Agricultural Development Seed Industry.

Capital Flow Summary:
Recent hot topics like electricity, wind power storage, chemicals show weakening divergence and capital realization. Funds are shifting into digital currency, storage, agriculture, aquaculture, PCB, chips & semiconductors, shipping, with local sector rotation. Overall, the divergence stage of hot topics shows random and disorderly capital switching, lacking strong logical or continuous expectations. Continued observation is recommended.

3. Sector Analysis:
Today, sectors or concepts showing a continued benign trend include wind power, batteries—representing recent profit effects and higher recent capital involvement, suitable as ultra-short-term stock selection directions.

Chemicals -
In the third phase of the trend cycle.
First phase: Led by Hongbaoli, Runtu Co., Baichuan Co., with follow-up stocks.
Second phase: Led by Yuntianhua, Jinjingda, with follow-up stocks.
Third phase: Led by Jinniu Chemical, with follow-up stocks.

Today’s chemical sector path:
Core stocks in bidding: Jinniu Chemical, Baofeng Energy opened flat; Jinjingda and Sanfangxiang quickly hit the limit-up after opening; followed by Jinputa, Hushenghua, Liuguo Chemical, Chitianhua also hitting the limit-up. Jinniu Chemical again shows a weak-to-strong shift, with Baofeng Energy, Chuanjinnuo strengthening. The chemical sector’s unexpected continuation of attack signals ongoing momentum. Meanwhile, industry giants like Wanhua Chemical and capacity stocks like Yuntianhua showed weakness, leading to a collective pullback after initial high.

The immediate reason for the sector’s rise and fall is the index’s sharp decline and negative feedback from the market sentiment. From thematic positioning, chemicals are fundamentally driven by price increase logic, and after continuous rises, the market enters a normal profit-taking phase, making acceleration and relay difficult.

In summary, the chemical sector operates on various sub-logic of price increases, with alternating local trends across concepts and stocks, making participation challenging and requiring good rhythm. The key is the break of the 5-day trend line; if further participation is considered, observe for stabilization and low buy-in after 10-20 days of bottoming.

AI Power (Electricity, Computing & AI Collaboration) -
In the third phase of the trend cycle.
First phase: Led by China XD Electric, followed by Sanyuan Technology, Boda Electric.
Second phase: Led by China XD Electric, Dongfang Electric, followed by Boda Electric, TBEA.
Third phase: Led by China Energy Construction, GCL New Energy, Jinkai New Energy, Hanlan Co., with follow-up stocks.

Core trend: China Energy Construction, GCL New Energy, Jinkai New Energy, Hanlan Co. showed anti-dip today, with some stocks pulling back after declines. The randomness is high; expect lower expectations, and consider stabilization signals on trend lines.
Limit-up stocks: Shun Na Co., leaning towards volume-controlled rise, currently in a range-bound structure, further observation needed for sector recovery signals.
High-position sentiment stocks: Yunnan Energy Investment, after completing tasks, showing a correction pattern. Unless a strong second wave in power sector emerges, expectations are limited.

Today’s AI Power path:
In bidding, yesterday’s bearish funds represented by Yunnan Energy Investment and Shun Na Co. opened slightly lower without major divergence signals. Defensive stocks like China Energy Construction, GCL Integration opened flat with no issues. China Power Construction’s continued contract orders led to a slight gap down, overall no continuation of divergence signals at opening; focus on whether funds will repair after the open.
Post-open, China Power Construction declined, China Energy Construction and GCL Integration weakened, despite some capacity stocks like Huadian Energy and Shun Na Co. showing resilience. The sector continued divergence led by capacity stocks, with some stocks like Hanlan Co., Jinkai New Energy rebounding, while wind power and energy-saving wind turbines like Goldwind, Tianshun Wind, Tongyu Heavy Industry weakened. Only Goldwind surged against the trend, with volume at the close indicating profit-taking.

Key signals for the power sector today:

1. Yesterday’s anti-dip capacity stocks showed feedback and correction, with some stocks rising against the trend, indicating high randomness and difficulty in technical analysis, dominated by volume-driven fluctuations.
2. Positive signals include Shun Na Co., Dongfang New Energy, Dingxin Communication hitting the limit-up, indicating some funds are maintaining sector heat.

In summary, despite some local sector effects, the power sector’s overall outlook remains uncertain. The low willingness of large-cap stocks like China Energy Construction and China Power Construction to continue buying suggests a lower expectation for a second wave. Continue to observe whether leading stocks like China Energy Construction, GCL New Energy, Jinkai New Energy, Hanlan Co., Shun Na Co. can stabilize and whether the sector shows resonance with the index to form a large upward move, confirming the second wave expectation.

Artificial Intelligence (Computing Power, Chips) -
In the 13th phase of the trend cycle.
First phase: Led by Haili Co., Chunzhong Technology, followed by Zhangjiang Hi-Tech.
Second phase: Led by Haili Co., Dongxin Co., followed by Zhangjiang Hi-Tech.
Third phase: Led by Chunzhong Technology, Huasheng Tiancheng, Yingweike, with follow-up stocks.
Fourth phase: Led by Huasheng Tiancheng.
Fifth phase: Led by Cambrian, Haiguang Information.
Sixth phase: Led by Huasheng Tiancheng.
Seventh phase: No core leader, partial rotation.
Eighth phase: Led by Industrial Fuzhou, Shenghong Technology.
Ninth phase: No core leader, alternating core stocks.
Tenth phase: Led by Demingli, Shannong Chipchuang, Jiangbolong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Shenghong Technology.
Eleventh phase: Led by Blue Cursor, 360 Security, Visual China.
Twelfth phase: Alternating rotation and testing.
Thirteenth phase: Led by Tongfu Microelectronics, Haiguang Information.
Fourteenth phase: Led by Changfei Optical Fiber, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Hangdian Co., etc.

Q-curve core: Philip Hua, Ping An Electric, Zhongcai Technology, Honghe Technology—entering correction, short- to medium-term uncertain expectations.
M9 Resin Materials: Dongcai Technology—correction phase, short-term uncertainty, medium-long term logic.
Copper Foil Core: Tongguan Copper Foil, Longyang Electronics, Fude Technology—correction phase, short-term uncertainty, medium-long term logic.
PCB Orthogonal Backplane Core: Shenghong Technology, Hudian Co., Shennan Electric—correction phase, short-term uncertainty, medium-long term logic.
Optical Fiber Core: Changfei Optical Fiber, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Hangdian Co., Zhongtian Technology—high-level oscillation and stagnation, trend line anchoring for expectations.
CPO/Optical Communication Core: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Dongshan Precision, Liante Technology—localized upward trend with relatively independent logic, trend structure anchoring for expectations.
Storage Chips Core: GigaDevice, Jiangbolong, Shannong Chipchuang, Demingli, Baiwei Storage—gradually releasing performance, likely to trend upward in waves, medium-long term logic.

Today’s tech sector path:
At open, storage chips led the movement, Baiwei Storage rose strongly, Demingli, GigaDevice followed. Yesterday’s suspected oversold stocks like Dongshan Precision also oscillated higher. Focus on Shenghong Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Hudian Co., which are near zero and showing resilience.
Around 11:20, storage chips re-accelerated, with Yinxin Development and Taiji Industrial hitting the limit-up, Baiwei Storage, Demingli, GigaDevice rapidly surged. Related chips & semiconductors also showed significant movement, with notable signals from SMIC, CPO, PCB stocks like Shenghong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Hudian Co. following the trend, resonating with the index.

Today’s tech hardware mainly divides into three directions:
First, storage chips—rising on price increase and performance release trends,
Second, CPO and PCB concepts—recently well-adjusted with anti-dip potential, driven by expectations from Nvidia GTC and OFC conferences,
Third, other chips & semiconductors—most corrected sectors, with rebounds representing oversold bounce rotation.

In summary, today’s tech sector shows a weak rebound in resonance with the index, driven by different factors across sectors. To understand whether to position for news or trend participation, one must consider different expectations and trial-and-error. Funds may target local opportunities, but overall, the sector remains in a consolidation phase, awaiting a reversal in the index for a larger trend.

4. Index and Market Outlook:

As shown, today’s major index dropped and then V-shaped recovered, forming a lower shadow. Is this a strong support signal?
In intraday charts, after a sharp decline, the index quickly rebounded in a straight line, unlike the March 9 rebound which showed a 20-degree orthogonal continuation pattern indicating bottom-fishing signals. The current rebound is followed by sideways consolidation; a truly strong V-shape would need to break the opening price. So, it’s too early to confirm a strong support structure; continuous observation of stabilization signals is needed.

Next support level is around 4020, in the lower center of the left-side zone. RSI is still above 20, not yet entering oversold; if future declines push RSI below 20 at support, that would be a clearer sign of stabilization.

Since the index has not stabilized, short-term expectations for the market should be lowered. During a downtrend, even sector recoveries tend to be short-lived, with quick pullbacks. Low-positioning and small-scale trial participation are recommended.

Pre-market Outlook for Tomorrow:
From the index perspective, short-term expectations are uncertain. To prevent a false stabilization followed by further decline, those with medium- or long-term strategies should avoid bottom-fishing at this point.

From sentiment perspective, the ultra-short-term sentiment temperature has been suppressed below 30 for four days, reaching an ice point today. This suggests a potential for sentiment recovery tomorrow, making it a key entry point for ultra-short-term trading. Funds can consider sectors like electricity and chemicals that are showing divergence and potential recovery, or focus on Nvidia GTC and OFC conference news expectations. The challenge is the high randomness and multiple options, with no clear directional certainty. The index’s weak recovery or potential for a rebound and pullback also suggests cautious positioning—either small positions for trial or waiting for sector explosions to participate.

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