Triple bottom is about to rebound, March 17 core chemical and new energy stocks repair!

Good evening everyone. Today, the market opened low and moved higher throughout the day. Under quantitative harvesting, any chasing or holding through highs without taking profits would be subject to being harvested. Except for a few core stocks supported by institutional and retail groupings (Chitianhua, Jinniu Chemical, Shun Na Shares), including those with strong independent trends like “Farsight,” which can outperform quant strategies, all other stocks were thoroughly harvested by the quantitative “scythe.” I personally hold some positions in Jinniu Chemical and Chitianhua. Unfortunately, my China Power Construction position, opened on Friday, hit the limit down—an unexpected event. Retail investors aiming to survive under quant strategies must follow three points: [TaoGuBa]

1. Favor a certain institutional stock and hold long-term for a year—don’t look at it often, but most in TaoGuBa probably won’t hold long-term.
2. Possess strong stock selection skills, capable of identifying sector leaders like Jinniu Chemical.
3. The ultimate trick is to buy stocks with high recognition and “踩” (踩 meaning to “step on” or “push down” for accumulation), then buy low and sell high!

In fact, the “break and rebound” strategy is very effective. “Jinniu Chemical + Chitianhua + Shun Na Shares + Hanlan Shares” are stocks we bought after the first two limit-ups, which is also a major reason I’ve made good profits on Jinniu Chemical recently. Therefore, I’ve provided an in-depth explanation and analysis of the “break and rebound” and main force shakeout logic, hoping it’s helpful to you!

This post specializes in catching strong stocks through break and rebound, deeply exploring core themes and predicting mainline logic. Skilled in early identification of market core directions, using powerful tactics like high-volume shadow reversals, large-volume bullish reversals, and break-and-rebound strategies to precisely capture early-stage opportunities. Has a systematic framework for analyzing the volume-price relationship in break and rebound, clearly identifying key phases like initiation, shakeout, retracement, and acceleration from dimensions like volume, chips, and patterns, enabling proactive layout and trend following. Committed to using patterned, systematic thinking to strengthen stocks, focusing on capturing main upward waves, and helping grasp trend markets with practical systems.

1. Market Summary for March 16:

The market showed typical “structural differentiation” and “high-frequency rotation” features. Sector rotation accelerated further, with previously strong pro-cyclical sectors and the recovering tech growth sectors performing a “fire and ice” switch. The main market themes shifted between “AI industry chain” and “future energy,” with high-low switching within the “electricity and computing” sector!

On one hand, the pro-cyclical chemical sector centered on price increases experienced a significant pullback, becoming the main drag on the Shanghai Composite Index today. Non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and steel sectors led declines. Despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts (like the Strait of Hormuz situation) pushing up global energy price expectations, cost transmission logic remains, but within the chemical sector, differentiation appeared—strong stocks remained strong, and the sector’s correction is mainly technical. Under high oil prices and global supply chain uncertainties, resource revaluation and earnings realization in pro-cyclical chemicals are not invalidated, but short-term trading becomes more challenging (requiring high stock-picking skills).

On the other hand, the “electricity and computing” and “computing hardware” sectors, led by the “core technology” theme, made a strong comeback, contrasting sharply with the weak Shanghai Index. The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rose 0.83%, with storage chips, PCB, and CPO concepts leading the market. This reversal was driven by strong catalysts, notably the upcoming Nvidia GTC conference, with funds pre-positioning for AI hardware opportunities. Among these, storage chips surged most vigorously, with stocks like GigaDevice and Langke Technology hitting the daily limit, reflecting market expectations for AI-driven high-performance data storage transformation. PCB concepts also performed actively, with liquid cooling and server-related stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and XinYiSheng seeing significant net inflows. As mentioned yesterday, those who missed the initial move last Friday should avoid chasing now.

The core theme “electricity and computing” was somewhat overshadowed today by traditional power equipment like energy storage and green power, but its deep logic is fermenting. The essence of this concept is addressing the “power cost” and “green power consumption” bottlenecks for AI computing needs. Its scope has extended from power infrastructure to IDC cooling, high-efficiency power supplies, and new energy installations. Today’s strength in new energy stocks (e.g., Fuhua Fluid, BYD with a net inflow of 1.588 billion yuan) largely reflects expectations for green power demand driven by “electricity and computing” synergy and the positive surprise in wind power installation bidding. Although traditional power stocks corrected, this is normal sector rotation in the short term. From a mid-term perspective, energy storage and wind power equipment companies with strong earnings are still high-value choices under the dual themes of “energy security” and “digital economy.”

Market Expectations for March 17:

1. The tech sector (computing hardware) still has upward momentum but watch for “profit-taking” risks: The GTC conference may push related concepts to a sentiment high. If Jensen Huang’s speech is not beyond expectations, funds that pre-positioned today (especially in optical modules and PCB) may face short-term profit-taking tomorrow. Focus should shift from thematic hype to core stocks with earnings support, overseas order potential, or accelerated domestic substitution.

2. The pro-cyclical and future energy sectors may see recovery and rotation. Today’s sharp declines in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, etc., could be overdone, especially if tech stocks pull back after rising. Funds might flow back into leading chemical stocks or power equipment related to “electricity and computing” with policy support. The “electricity and computing” and “future energy” themes will likely be repeatedly hot.

3. The trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan can only support localized rallies, not a broad market rise. If tomorrow’s volume continues to shrink, both cyclical and tech sectors will struggle to sustain a trend. The strategy should be to “stay steady in changing times,” avoiding chasing highs in pulse-like surges, and patiently waiting for core assets to dip for low-cost entry. Managing positions, focusing on core stocks, and switching between high and low positions remain key to navigating rotation markets.

It’s still difficult to do continuous limit-ups; currently, we are all focusing on low buying!

Core themes: chemical + electricity and computing synergy, nuclear and wind energy recovery, AI hardware rallying then retreating;

Expected continuous limit-ups on March 17:

1st wave: Huadian Liaoning Energy, Shun Na Shares

2nd wave: Jingtou Development

Break and rebound stocks for Tuesday and Wednesday, focusing on selected stocks like “Jinpu Titanium,” “Red Star Development,” “Baofeng Energy,” “Baichuan Shares,” “Xinjiang Tianye,” “Zhongtai Chemical,” etc.

This concludes today’s review and tomorrow’s outlook. These are my personal insights; no stock recommendations. The stock market involves risks—invest carefully!

Basic points for retail beginners to watch: https://www.tgb.cn/a/2mMTc7FXQK7

Retail trading system logic: https://www.tgb.cn/a/2mYwg3v7E5a

Dragon head turnaround and limit-up with huge volume shadow: https://www.tgb.cn/a/2mBn1ixdByO

Limit-up with huge volume shadow: https://www.tgb.cn/a/2lEUa47ymQ2

Previous high resistance level: https://www.tgb.cn/a/2lBLGVcOrao

Short-term volume-price minute chart: https://www.tgb.cn/a/2nZLYgF3Bj9

Enhanced break and rebound strategy: https://www.tgb.cn/a/2ogiO91wRZj

Details of the break and rebound strategy: https://www.tgb.cn/a/2oqmISWbF4A

Details of large-volume shadow reversals: https://www.tgb.cn/a/2oQTYc3NLrj

Deep analysis of break and rebound: https://www.tgb.cn/a/2pYJLHwOnaT