#加密市场回升 I personally lean towards — a high probability of short-term easing, but the long-term confrontation logic will not disappear.

1️⃣ Regarding “20-year pause vs short-term compromise”
From a realistic perspective, the possibility of Iran making phased concessions exists, but it’s more like strategic buffering rather than a complete shift.
Geopolitical games have reached this stage, and everyone needs a “time window,” not a one-time solution.

2️⃣ The ceiling of this rebound
This wave of increase is essentially driven by risk expectation decline leading to capital inflow, not by fundamentals.
So I would define it as a “rebound rally,” not the start of a new cycle.

In the short term:
If market sentiment continues to improve, BTC may test a wave near previous highs

But without sustained positive news, it’s easy to see sideways movement or even a pullback at high levels

3️⃣ How to adjust asset allocation?
In the current situation, I prefer a “defensive with offensive” portfolio:

Crude oil: Short-term volatility will be high, but it’s not suitable for chasing highs

Precious metals: Continue as a hedge allocation, keep the position

Crypto assets: Increase appropriately, but not all in

Simply put:
Keep some positions to catch the rebound, but leave room for uncertainty