Recently, I've seen people compare the stablecoin supply curve to ETF net inflows, saying "Money is coming in, so it must go up"... I’m a bit skeptical. The correlation looks pretty close, but when it comes down to the market, off-exchange funds might first get caught in arbitrage/hedging, or just swap out old positions for new ones; causality isn’t that straightforward.

On the other hand, the new L1/L2 projects that launch incentives to boost TVL are starting to appear again. I can understand old users complaining about "mining, selling, and dumping," and I see the liquidity as lively, but it’s more like short-term arbitrage. Anyway, I prefer to think of stablecoins as a "risk appetite thermometer," not a switch. Gradually allocate, avoid chasing emotions... I still believe the cycle will reward patience.