💭Some thoughts:

Been bearish on stocks since early 2026. Got good profits on shorts in the past few weeks, thanks to uncertainty reaching new ATHs and the looming possibility of global supply chain destruction / energy crisis.
What we're seeing now however ($Q & $SPY almost back to ATH, SMH literally printing ATH) makes people lose their minds on the timeline. Most went short AFTER Trumps "we delete a civilization" escalation rhetoric, we took some profits at that point. It's all about timing and zooming out to understand what are "real moves" and what not imo:
The whole rally doesn't surprise me too much. I did not expect it to be this violent and fast tbf, but I've surely expected a rally of some sort. If you study my last few tweets, I was trying to point out exactly the root cause.
➡️Here's imo the playbook we're looking at:
1) The energy crisis is real, but scale depends entirely on blockade duration (as explained in my easter update article & the update to it last week)...
I pointed out in both updates: up to 8 weeks of Hormuz disruption can be mitigated by IEA reserves. And they actively communicate that to the market nonstop (just yesterday another article on reuters, right at NYO).
Short-term, the supply side of oil gets openly 'managed', helping risk assets to breath - which is normal and exactly why I barely trade oil but use it as a VIX for risk assets.
2) Any previous crisis follows a recognizable pattern:
a) Crisis emerges => market sells off

b) Situation improves but does not really get resolved => market bounces violently
c) [we are here] Short sellers need to cover as price pumps higher => bounce extends into a rally
d) Markets price the whole situation as fully solved, drift back to pre crisis range (this assumes the Iran-US ceasefire holds long enough though(!) - expiry is apparently ~April 22 (if not moved again), still fragile)
e) Actual economic fallout shows up (already happening, which makes it imho even more likely, that the real downside is still ahead of us): GDP is already printing at 1.3% & curling lower. CPI just jumped to 3.3%, almost entirely energy driven. This puts the Fed in an impossible position: inflation too high to cut, growth too weak to hike. Previous crises had a backstop. This one does not really.
If history repeats we can watch the May CPI print & Q2 GDP or the next earnings season (as energy will show up in growth metrics and CAPEX spendings are priced in to perfection) as the concrete triggers for when the real sell-off begins.