Recently, I've seen people watching large on-chain transfers and hot/cold wallets on exchanges, shouting "Smart money is coming" whenever there's movement... I find it a bit funny but also a little anxious, so I won't jump to conclusions just yet. Many so-called "coincidental transfers" are actually just a few common paths: Address A first withdraws from the exchange → splits into several intermediaries → then goes into a contract/market-making pool, or simply internal exchange wallet arrangements, casually organizing everyone's emotions along the way.

I personally trust data a little more because intuition is too easily misled by memes (I'm no exception), and data at least can tell the story clearly: where the money came from, how many hops it took, and which pool it finally ended up in. As for whether it's "smart"... honestly, it might just be a move of residence. If you lose money, consider it a ticket bought for yourself, for now.