Economic Daily Commentator: Refuting the "China's Economy Slowing Down Theory"

How does AI reflect strategic resolve in China’s economic growth targets?

This year’s “Government Work Report” sets the expected economic growth target at 4.5% to 5% and emphasizes “striving to achieve better results in practical work.” This target setting is grounded in the current situation, leaving room for optimizing the economic structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms; at the same time, it closely aligns with the phased requirements of our country’s 2035 long-term goals, releasing a signal of steady growth. The strategic composure and wisdom to respond steadily and go far ahead, continually update China’s economic coordinates toward something new and better, and also muffles the voices claiming that China’s economy is “losing momentum.”

As a large economy, with a higher base and a larger economic foundation, a slowdown in growth is generally a rule. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the total size of China’s economy has continued to step up to new levels, exceeding 140 trillion yuan in 2025. In the past 5 years, with annual growth averaging 5.4%, the added value of more than 36 trillion yuan has been realized—nearly “rebuilding” an economy among the world’s leading ranks. With the 4.5% to 5% growth target, the GDP increment in 2026 is expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan—equivalent to “growing out” the full-year GDP of a moderately sized developed economy. With an economic size of about 140 trillion yuan, a 1-percentage-point increment is comparable to an increment of roughly 3 percentage points during the previous phase of rapid growth.

Looking globally, China’s proposed growth target is truly “a standout.” The World Bank’s report on “Global Economic Prospects” predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 2.6% in 2026. China is not only still a “growth highland,” but also matches expectations in academia. Most scholars in our country estimate that China’s potential growth rate from 2026 to 2030 will be around 5%. The World Bank estimates that from 2020 to 2030, China’s potential growth rate will be about 4.5%. The potential growth rate is the maximum sustainable growth the economy can achieve under conditions of rational resource allocation, steady technological progress, and optimized institutional environment. A growth target of 4.5% to 5% neither blindly “raises the bar” beyond reality nor conservatively “holds it down”; instead, it is consistent with the economy’s inherent laws.

The 4.5% to 5% growth target demonstrates patience and resolve. First, it reflects a prudent response to the current situation. This year is the opening year of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” and it is also a critical period to “lay a solid foundation and make comprehensive efforts to” basically realize socialist modernization. To advance high-quality development, China needs to complete a series of difficult actions—such as restructuring and transforming growth drivers—while maintaining economic growth, including steadily resolving risks in areas such as real estate and local government debt. At such a time, if an excessively high rigid growth target is set, it will inevitably push some localities to generate ideas of “seeking speed” and “seeking visible results” to secure growth, leading to short-term stimulus that will run down long-term potential.

Second, it shows a composed response to the overall development strategy. To achieve the goal that China’s per capita GDP reaches the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, the economy needs to maintain long-term steady growth. Based on an estimated average annual growth rate of about 4.17%, setting a growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026 is highly aligned with the phased requirements of the 2035 long-term vision and also leaves room for flexibility in subsequent development.

In the opening year of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” if the growth rate is set too high, it may lead to resource misallocation or risk accumulation, affecting the realization of long-term goals; if it is set too low, it may fail to provide the necessary support for industrial upgrading and technological innovation. The 4.5% to 5% range target both maintains a reasonable band for economic operation and, with a proactive and forward-leaning pace, creates the conditions to lay a solid foundation before 2030 and bring about qualitative changes before 2035.

Third, it reflects a cautious response to risks from external uncertainties. Today, risks are rising—such as global geopolitical conflicts, the growth of trade protectionism, and the restructuring of industrial chains—and the instability of the external environment may impact China’s economy. Setting a target that matches the potential growth rate not only leaves buffer space to deal with external risks, but also strengthens market confidence by stabilizing growth expectations, helping avoid major economic fluctuations.

The latest economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first two months of this year, China’s industrial production accelerated noticeably, the industrial structure improved and upgraded, and economic performance got off to a strong start. Against the backdrop of many economies around the world either being trapped in inflation’s stickiness, bogged down by growth losing momentum, or struggling amid the lingering effects of deindustrialization, China’s steady progress is particularly striking.

At present, more positive factors are also gathering momentum, giving greater confidence in achieving the full-year growth target—

Emerging productive forces of new quality are increasingly becoming the core engine driving high-quality development. From the “new three” that include electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products—selling well worldwide—to this year’s “Government Work Report,” which clearly proposes “developing emerging pillar industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace and aviation, biomedicine, and the low-altitude economy,” and plans for future industries such as future energy, quantum technology, and embodied intelligence. Behind this is by no means a simple replacement of industries, but a full-scale evolution—from technological breakthroughs to complete commercial closed-loop development.

A super-large market has become a new blue ocean for upgrading consumption tiers and accelerating scenario iteration. During this year’s Spring Festival, growth in offline physical consumption in China exceeded that of online for the first time in recent years. In Beijing, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, outbound tax-refund sales (amount) increased by 94.3%, 1.5 times, and 3.4 times respectively, and “vacation-style Chinese New Year celebrations” drove nearly 600 million domestic trips. The data reflect the release of consumption capacity and a shift in lifestyles. With a super-large market, a complete industrial system, and abundant application scenarios, it provides “fertile ground” for accelerating the iteration of new technologies and new products.

A strategic resolve to work through one five-year plan after another turns the blueprint for Chinese modernization into reality—transforming institutional advantages into governance effectiveness. Stable, coherent, and predictable policy implementation creates comprehensive advantages in today’s industrial ecosystem. For example, China’s forward-looking layout of information infrastructure and continued investment have provided “highways” for the explosive growth of mobile payments, short videos, and the industrial internet. Likewise, the layout of “new infrastructure” such as new energy charging piles and computing power centers is also paving the way for a new round of industrial upgrading.

The dynamic balance between speed and quality is key to China’s high-quality development—steadily moving forward and going far. In a context where external uncertainties are rising, maintaining a reasonable growth rate enhances resilience to risks; by improving quality to optimize the structure, long-term competitiveness can be cultivated. Coordinating the effective improvement in the “quality” of the economy and the rational growth in the “quantity” will ensure that China’s economic ship navigating through deep waters remains both full of momentum and precisely headed, and will ultimately sail toward an even more far-reaching journey. (This article is sourced from Economic Daily. Author: Economic Daily commentator)