Geopolitics acts as a high-risk investment asset, where its price decreases with falling stock prices and rises with increasing stock prices. However, the period from February 28 to April 14 contradicts this notion entirely. Stock prices stabilized, while gold and silver prices, the two assets presumed to absorb geopolitical fears, declined significantly. In contrast, Bitcoin's price increased by 17%.



Three possible explanations, none of which conflict with each other. First, financial institutions are moving toward Bitcoin as a more resilient and tradable store of value, replacing gold. Second, the Iranian war disrupted physical commodity markets, as gold and silver pass through supply chains directly affected by the conflict, whereas there are no supply chains for Bitcoin that can be disrupted. Third, the market may have decided that Bitcoin's scarcity argument is more sustainable than gold's in a world where the Strait of Hormuz could be closed overnight.

Data does not determine which explanation is correct but indicates that the decoupling occurred during the longest period of geopolitical tension in the Middle East since 2003.
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