Recently, I found that before placing an order, I tend to glance at the interest rate expectations first. I'm not pretending to be a macro expert... it's just that it quietly embeds the question of "dare to withstand drawdowns" into everyone's mind. When expectations of interest rate cuts heat up, risk appetite is like being turned on by someone opening a water tap, and positions unknowingly become heavier; when the sentiment wavers, even those who usually talk about long-term strategies start to itch to run.

There's also a pretty strange point: lately, people keep talking about the dollar index moving in the same direction as risk assets, basically meaning that capital doesn't follow logic very well, and they just find a place to band together first. My approach is pretty simple: when emotions are very hot, I instead split my positions into smaller parts and keep some bullets; I don't gamble on "macro definitely going this way," I just focus on whether I can sleep well... for now, that's it.