#打榜优质内容# BTCLong After Wick Candle fell below $90,000, can it continue to bullish in the future?

After a brief rebound above $100,000 on January 7, the market quickly turned downward, with Bitcoin leading the cryptocurrency market in a general decline. At 22:00 last night, the Long Wick Candle of Bitcoin fell below $90,000, reaching a minimum of $89,256.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies also fell sharply. According to CoinGecko, the total market capitalization was $3.27 trillion at 22:00 yesterday, a decrease of about 13% compared to January 7th.
Why the sharp decline?
In fact, in addition to the cryptocurrency market, major financial markets have experienced a comprehensive correction recently. The Nasdaq index has fallen by 4.15% in the past five trading days, and the Nikkei has fallen by 2.8% in the past five trading days. The fundamental reason for this is that the non-farm data has greatly exceeded expectations, supporting the Federal Reserve's slowdown in interest rate cuts.
The non-farm data released on January 10th showed that the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the United States in December was 256,000, significantly exceeding the market's expected level of 160,000, reaching a new high since March 2024. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, compared to 4.2% in November. The market increasingly expects the Federal Reserve to only make a slight interest rate cut in 2025, while the US dollar index DXY is rising, and the risk markets are generally falling.
How is the expected interest rate cut?
On January 10th, according to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is 97.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.7%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate in March is 74.0% (59.6% before non-agricultural), the probability of cumulative interest rate cuts of 25 basis points is 25.4% (37.9% before non-agricultural), and the probability of cumulative interest rate cuts of 50 basis points is 0.6% (2.5% before non-agricultural).
According to Jintian's report, US interest rate futures pricing suggests that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates this year. Traders are increasingly betting on how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates from the current range of 4.25-4.50%, which in turn has boosted the exchange rate of the US dollar against most other major currencies. Against the background of rising inflation and borrowing costs, US bonds were sold off this month, pushing up the (10-year) Treasury yield and making investors more convinced that the Fed's room for interest rate cuts may not be as large as previously expected.
Brandywine Global portfolio manager Jack Mcintyre said the most crucial variable for the Fed and the market is still inflation. Next week's CPI data will be more important. (Note: CPI will be released at 21:30 this Wednesday.)
Institutional Viewpoints
Bf: Optimism about cryptocurrency regulation in the market may limit further decline in Bitcoin.
Bf's report analysis indicates that the reason for the decline in Bitcoin is the increasingly cautious sentiment in the market, driven by the soaring US Treasury yields and continuous outflows of spot Bitcoin ETF. It is worth noting that in the past 12 trading days, the ETF has experienced outflows for 7 days, with outflows of $718 million in just two days, a sharp contrast to the nearly $2 billion inflow in early January.
Despite macro pressures, Bitcoin has remained strong - up 42% since the US election - outperforming stocks, which have erased post-election gains. However, with signals from the Fed of fewer rate cuts and a tightening financial environment, Bitcoin may face greater volatility in the short term. However, under the leadership of newly elected US President Trump, optimism about cryptocurrency regulation may still limit further declines in Bitcoin and keep it in a strong position in the long run.
Analyst: Bitcoin 'January sell-off' is a common phenomenon, and a new high may appear after a significant adjustment.
Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Bitblaze said that historically, the January sell-off of Bitcoin is a common phenomenon in the years following halving, and cited examples of market reaching new highs after sell-offs in 2017 and 2021.
1. In January 2017, which is the year after the halving of 2016, the price of Bitcoin plummeted by 30%, from $1,130 to $784. That year, the price of Bitcoin soared by 2,400%, reaching a historic high of $20,000 in December.
2. In January 2021, the next latest year after the halving, the price of Bitcoin fell more than 25% from over $40,000 to slightly above $30,000 by the end of the month. By November, the price of Bitcoin surged 130%, reaching a historical high of $69,000.
Intouch Capital Markets Senior Forex Analyst: BTC has technical bearish signals, the next low point may be around $88,000.
Intouch Capital Markets Senior Forex Analyst Piotr Matys said that Bitcoin may now have formed a so-called head and shoulders pattern, indicating that the trend is shifting from bullish to bearish. Matys said that breaking below the key support level of $91,600 is a strong technical bearish signal for Bitcoin. Fxpro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich added that if bearish sentiment prevails, the next low point for Bitcoin could be around $88,000, and it could quickly rebound from there to around $74,000.
Last year, the debut of the U.S. ETF directly linked to Bitcoin, as well as President Trump's outspoken support for the digital asset industry, pushed Bitcoin to a new all-time high. However, this optimism has waned in 2025, with some analysts suggesting that traders are waiting for certainty after Trump's inauguration on January 20th.
Bloomberg Analyst: Trump will revive US stocks and is not worried about short-term Bitcoin pullback
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the biggest risk for Bitcoin is the downward trend in the stock market (also known as the "baby boomer market"), which has its pros and cons. The good news is that Trump may spare no effort to keep the stock market rising, so individuals are not too worried about these short-term pullbacks.
The future is bright, but the road is winding.
While Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have recently started net outflows, MicroStrategy is still "buying, buying, buying". Yesterday, MicroStrategy once again announced that it had increased its holdings of 2,530 BTC at a price of $243 million. At the same time, NASDAQ-listed Heritage Distilling, Nano Labs and others plan to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, and more large purchases may still be on the way.
On the other hand, the interest rate reduction path in the first half of the year seems to have been set in stone from the market's predictions, and the negative expectations have been digested. On January 20th, Trump will be inaugurated as the President of the United States, and his policy orientation and final landing will be the most critical factors affecting the trend of the cryptocurrency market.