Mid East tensions escalate, global risk aversion surges. While the US government pauses some military operations, it has also locked in 50 high-value targets, and multiple countries warn citizens to evacuate, with markets filled with uncertainty. This "quiet before the storm" situation is profoundly rewriting capital flows.

Gold and Bitcoin move in tandem, and this is no coincidence. Safe-haven funds continuously flow into "certainty assets," with BTC once breaking through 97,000 USDT, and spot trading volume soaring significantly for two consecutive days. The Fear & Greed Index remains high, institutional funds precisely position themselves in BTC, while altcoins are largely ignored—fully demonstrating that the market is re-pricing risk.

Historically, during the initial phase of US-Iran conflicts, BTC usually experiences short-term adjustments, but as geopolitical tensions escalate, rebounds often follow. The narrative of "digital gold" is further strengthened, and Bitcoin’s safe-haven properties are now clearly emerging, with capital flow patterns becoming more discernible.

However, risks are also brewing. If a sudden military escalation occurs, global risk assets may be sold off simultaneously, potentially triggering liquidity crunches and long liquidations. In extreme scenarios, a decline in risk appetite could intensify downward pressure.

It is crucial to monitor three variables: the intensity of Iran’s counterattack, fluctuations in oil prices, and the correlation of global risk assets. Any loss of control over these factors could rewrite market trends.