Seeing many traders in the market getting excited about Bitcoin's rise, believing that an uptrend channel has opened and a reversal is imminent! Especially with sanctions relief and falling oil prices, it seems all signs are pointing in a positive direction.

But is this really an "uptrend channel" opening, or a typical "bull trap"?

My view is that this rebound has indeed opened a short-term channel, but it's premature to call it a trend reversal.

First, why I consider it "opening a channel." Bitcoin rebounded from its March 11 low of 67,000 all the way up, touching a high of 71,800, and is currently holding in the 70,000-71,000 range.
A bull flag pattern is forming on the 4-hour chart. If volume breaks through 71,800, it would technically trigger programmatic buying, with targets pointing to 73,000-74,000. Additionally, ETFs have seen net inflows for four consecutive weeks, accumulating over $2 billion since March—this is real capital providing support.

But why say it's not a trend reversal? Because there's too much resistance ahead: 71,800 is the first hurdle, 72,150 is the 50-day EMA, and 74,000-76,000 is the previous high zone. Current trading volume can only sustain oscillation, insufficient to break through these resistance levels in one go. More importantly, geopolitical situations and oil prices are still steering the market, and macro uncertainty hasn't been eliminated.

So my conclusion is: the rebound channel has opened, but it's very narrow. Even every 100 points above could be a hurdle. For a true reversal, we need oil prices to stabilize first, ETFs to maintain inflows, and then volume breaking above 74,000. Until then, continue treating this as a short-term rebound trade, not as the start of a bull market to chase.