Recently, the market's expectations for a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have clearly intensified, and this judgment is based on several key factors.
First, market consensus has significantly strengthened. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders expect a probability of over 95% for a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Recent statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other senior officials have further reinforced this expectation.
Secondly, Federal Reserve officials are gradually shifting towards a dovish stance. Several senior officials have signaled support for interest rate cuts, including Governor Waller who publicly supports action in September, Atlanta Fed President Bostic who noted that current policies are somewhat tight, and Powell who stated that policies will be adjusted in a timely manner based on changes in the economic outlook.
There are obvious signs of a cooling job market. In July, the number of job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 7.181 million, and non-farm employment only increased by 78,000, below the critical growth threshold of 100,000, reflecting a slowdown in labor market demand.
Inflationary pressures are also showing a trend of easing. Although the core PCE price index is still above the policy target year-on-year, the upward momentum has weakened. The price impact from recent tariff measures is considered a short-term shock, creating conditions for interest rate cuts.
Several major investment banks, such as Morgan Stanley and Barclays, expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September and may cut rates again later this year. They believe that the monetary policy may continue to maintain an accommodative tone through 2026.
However, it is important to note that the Federal Reserve's final decision will still depend on the actual performance of economic data. If the inflation or employment data for August significantly exceeds expectations, the current expectations for interest rate cuts may still change.
Overall, multiple factors have jointly driven the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, but policymakers will still closely monitor economic indicators to ensure the timeliness and accuracy of policy adjustments.
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MetaverseLandlord
· 17h ago
New suckers are entering a position again.
View OriginalReply0
probably_nothing_anon
· 09-04 23:36
rise or fall, anyway, you all have to work for me
View OriginalReply0
ShitcoinConnoisseur
· 09-04 09:52
Is it going to rise again? The trend looks just like 2022.
View OriginalReply0
SnapshotDayLaborer
· 09-04 09:48
I smell the play people for suckers in this operation.
View OriginalReply0
LiquidityHunter
· 09-04 09:46
95.37% probability of pump, the calculator is worn out.
View OriginalReply0
AirdropFatigue
· 09-04 09:45
Cutting interest rates is all it takes! Beat the bearish traders.
Recently, the market's expectations for a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have clearly intensified, and this judgment is based on several key factors.
First, market consensus has significantly strengthened. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders expect a probability of over 95% for a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Recent statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other senior officials have further reinforced this expectation.
Secondly, Federal Reserve officials are gradually shifting towards a dovish stance. Several senior officials have signaled support for interest rate cuts, including Governor Waller who publicly supports action in September, Atlanta Fed President Bostic who noted that current policies are somewhat tight, and Powell who stated that policies will be adjusted in a timely manner based on changes in the economic outlook.
There are obvious signs of a cooling job market. In July, the number of job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 7.181 million, and non-farm employment only increased by 78,000, below the critical growth threshold of 100,000, reflecting a slowdown in labor market demand.
Inflationary pressures are also showing a trend of easing. Although the core PCE price index is still above the policy target year-on-year, the upward momentum has weakened. The price impact from recent tariff measures is considered a short-term shock, creating conditions for interest rate cuts.
Several major investment banks, such as Morgan Stanley and Barclays, expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September and may cut rates again later this year. They believe that the monetary policy may continue to maintain an accommodative tone through 2026.
However, it is important to note that the Federal Reserve's final decision will still depend on the actual performance of economic data. If the inflation or employment data for August significantly exceeds expectations, the current expectations for interest rate cuts may still change.
Overall, multiple factors have jointly driven the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, but policymakers will still closely monitor economic indicators to ensure the timeliness and accuracy of policy adjustments.