Analysis: The projected market size by 2035 may reach $95.5 billion, with an annual compound growth rate of nearly 47%

December 29, 2025, the prediction market reaches a critical inflection point. The weekly trading volume of major platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and Myriad has surpassed $2 billion. This sector has rapidly evolved from previous regulatory uncertainties to become an important new infrastructure in the crypto and financial markets. Looking back at the end of 2024, the US presidential election became a turning point for the prediction market. Polymarket accurately bet on Trump winning the presidency, setting new records in trading volume and influence, but also faced regulatory pressures such as bans in France and FBI investigations. Subsequently, the US CFTC shifted its stance, publicly reflecting on previous regulatory approaches that created a “legal uncertainty trap,” and cleared obstacles for platforms like Kalshi.

Entering 2025, prediction markets have quickly become mainstream: Robinhood partnered with Kalshi to launch the NCAA “March Madness” prediction market. Polymarket invested $112 million to acquire CFTC-licensed exchange QCX, paving the way for re-entry into the US market. ICE (the parent company of NYSE) invested $2 billion, boosting Polymarket’s valuation to $9 billion. Trump Media Group and CEX launched Truth Predict. Industry reports forecast that the prediction market size could reach $95.5 billion by 2035, with an annual compound growth rate of nearly 47%. Meanwhile, emerging platforms like Limitless and Myriad have achieved several-fold increases in trading volume within months. Although states like Texas and New York still face regulatory friction, it has not hindered industry expansion. Industry insiders point out that prediction markets are similar to the early stages of DeFi, with ecosystems around trading terminals, data aggregation, collateral applications, and more beginning to take shape.