The core logic of the Iran-U.S. conflict:

1. The nuclear issue is a deadlock: Iran wants the right to enrich uranium for civilian use, but the U.S. (especially Israel and Sunni neighboring countries) will never allow Shia to develop nuclear potential. This is the biggest disagreement in negotiations; the killing of Soleimani was also related to this.
2. The Strait of Hormuz is the chessboard: the U.S. wants to "co-manage" or blockade it, Iran wants to charge tolls for passage. From the U.S. perspective, maintaining Iran's threat to the Gulf monarchs but keeping it controllable best serves its interests (collect protection fees, sell arms, stabilize the dollar). Now Iran wants to develop nuclear weapons, which is like flipping the table.
3. Military confrontation has escalated: U.S. warships enter and exit the strait; Iran claims to have issued a 30-minute ultimatum to scare off U.S. forces; Trump has ordered the U.S. military to blockade the strait, banning Iranian ships from passing, attempting to cut off its revenue.
4. Negotiations are very lengthy: both sides want a ceasefire and have talked face-to-face for 20 hours, but disagreements are too big. This time, it’s likely to be a war of attrition with negotiations ongoing.
5. There is noise within the U.S.: some MAGA influencers (like Tucker Carlson) advocate for withdrawing troops from Iran, and Trump has publicly scolded them. The base is turning against, indicating that war pressure is indeed fermenting.
6. Economic impact: U.S. March CPI rose to 3.3% due to oil prices, squeezing discretionary spending. The Federal Reserve will be more hawkish, bearish on capital markets.
There has been progress in negotiations, but it’s still far from an agreement; the strait will remain tense, and capital markets will face pressure. The nuclear issue remains a bottom line.