Kalshi raises $1 billion in funding! Leading prediction market valued at $22 billion, attracting Wall Street attention

Author: Fenrir, Crypto City

Kalshi completes $1 billion funding, valuation soars to $22 billion
The U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi officially confirms the completion of a new $1 billion funding round, bringing the company’s valuation to $22 billion, making it one of the most watched startups in fintech and the crypto market in recent years. This funding also signifies that prediction markets are officially transitioning from niche speculative tools to mainstream financial capital.
According to Bloomberg, the main use of this round of funds will be for institutional market expansion, regulatory compliance, global market deployment, and building larger trading and clearing infrastructure. Kalshi also clearly states that the next phase’s core goal is to attract more traditional financial institutions and professional investors into the prediction market ecosystem.
Kalshi is currently one of the few legitimate event trading platforms in the U.S. regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing users to bet on elections, interest rates, inflation, wars, sports events, and even economic data. The platform is not a traditional cryptocurrency exchange but more akin to a “probability trading market.”
After this funding news was announced, the market’s attention was once again drawn to the trend of “financialization of prediction markets.” Events once seen as entertainment or gambling, such as event trading, are now gradually evolving into new information pricing tools.

From Trump elections to Federal Reserve interest rates, prediction markets begin to influence Wall Street
Over the past year, as the U.S. presidential election, Middle Eastern conflicts, and Federal Reserve policy uncertainties increased, the influence of prediction markets has rapidly expanded. Many investment institutions have started incorporating data from Kalshi and Polymarket into their trading and risk assessment models. Especially during the U.S. presidential election, the probabilities of Trump and Democratic candidates on Kalshi sometimes reflected market sentiment faster than traditional polls, making prediction markets increasingly viewed as “real-time public opinion and risk pricing systems.”
Unlike traditional financial markets, the core logic of prediction markets is not corporate earnings reports but “event occurrence probabilities.” Investors directly bet on future events through buying and selling contracts. The closer the price is to 100%, the more likely the market believes the event will happen.
This model has also attracted many quantitative trading teams and institutional funds to research. Some Wall Street funds have even begun using prediction market data to position themselves early in stocks, energy, and bonds. Market analysts point out that Kalshi’s skyrocketing valuation essentially reflects a re-pricing of “information trading” in the capital markets. As AI and social media accelerate information dissemination, platforms capable of instantly reflecting market sentiment are also beginning to possess new financial value.

Kalshi pushes for institutionalization, trying to distance itself from crypto prediction markets
It is noteworthy that after this funding round, Kalshi’s direction clearly diverges from that of native crypto prediction markets. While Polymarket has high traffic and discussion, it cannot legally serve U.S. users due to regulatory issues; in contrast, Kalshi emphasizes full compliance and actively aligns with traditional financial systems.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has repeatedly emphasized that prediction markets should not just be speculative tools in the future but should become “information infrastructure” in financial markets. This is why Kalshi has been actively building clearing systems, risk control frameworks, and institutional APIs in recent years.
According to reports, Kalshi may further launch institutional-grade products in the future, including large macroeconomic event markets, corporate earnings prediction markets, and more contracts linked to interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical issues. To some extent, Kalshi is trying to repackage “betting on the future” into a legitimate asset class within financial markets.

Regulatory and ethical controversies grow behind the prediction market boom
However, the rapid rise of prediction markets has also sparked regulatory and ethical debates. Recently, there was a case where active military personnel used classified intelligence to profit from betting on Venezuelan military actions in prediction markets, once again drawing attention to insider trading and national security risks. Some U.S. lawmakers are even discussing whether to restrict government officials and certain individuals from participating in event market trading. Moreover, as prediction markets involve wars, assassinations, pandemics, and political events, there are concerns that markets might influence real-world outcomes.
Supporters argue that the true value of prediction markets lies in their ability to reflect collective cognition faster than polls, media, and analysts. Some scholars even believe that in the future, government and corporate decision-making could rely on prediction market prices as risk indicators.
Today, Kalshi’s $22 billion valuation also signifies that Wall Street has started betting on one thing: that the most valuable asset in the future may not be stocks, but “the ability to price probabilities of the future.”