Gold Reclaims $5,000 as Middle East Risks Intensify

Khac Phu Nguyen

Fri, February 20, 2026 at 9:56 PM GMT+9 2 min read

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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Gold (GLD) has climbed for a third straight session, pushing back above $5,000 an ounce as investors weigh escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. President Donald Trump said 10 to 15 days were pretty much all he would allow for talks on a nuclear deal with Iran, while the US assembles its largest military deployment in the region since before the Iraq war in 2003. Bullion has gained more than 2% over the previous two sessions, trading on either side of the $5,000 level this week, with some Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year break. Oil has moved to a six-month high as traders assess the risk that a major US strike against the Islamic Republic could entangle Washington in another regional conflict and potentially reinforce haven demand.

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The recent rebound follows an unusually sharp bout of volatility. Earlier this month, gold tumbled from a record peak above $5,595 an ounce to almost $4,400 in just two days, after speculative buying that accelerated in January appeared to push a multiyear rally to breaking point. Even so, several structural drivers cited previously including a broader move away from sovereign bonds and currencies remain in place. Banks such as BNP Paribas SA and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have said they expect prices to resume their upward trend, while Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven noted that central banks continue building holdings as a hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, despite volatility that weighed on buying in December.

Monetary policy could also shape the next move. The path of US interest rates remains uncertain, and gold typically benefits from lower borrowing costs. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran recently dialed back calls for how deep rate cuts should be, citing stronger economic data than he had expected, according to Dow Jones. On the supply side, Newmont Corp. the world’s biggest gold miner said it expects to produce about 10% less gold this year, partly due to planned upgrades at some of its mines. As of 3:23 p.m. in Singapore, spot gold was up 0.4% at $5,015.99 an ounce, while silver rose 0.4% to $78.83, platinum gained 0.5%, palladium was steady, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat on the day but up 0.8% for the week.

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