Macro Trends

The market is anticipating the year-end "Santa Claus Rally": during periods of loose monetary policy and abundant liquidity, Bitcoin has typically outperformed gold. However, this year's macroeconomic environment and the structure of market participants are different. This article compares the differences between Bitcoin and gold in terms of liquidity, buyer categories, and holiday trading characteristics, exploring which asset is more likely to become the star performer during the year-end period.

The article presents comprehensive data and case studies to examine the evolving landscape of Bitcoin, stablecoins, and DeFi. It details how these changes affect market participants.

Gate Research Daily Report: On November 17, BTC remains in a short-term weak downward consolidation structure, with 92,976 USD forming a key short-term low and serving as the core defense for bulls. ETH is also in a short-term weak consolidation pattern but has shown a clear rebound signal after touching the 3,004 USD low. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a historic third-highest weekly net outflow of 729 million USD. ZEC contract positions surpassed 1.5 billion USD, reaching a record high, with significant increases in privacy network trading activity. Meanwhile, Japan’s regulators plan to reclassify BTC, ETH, and other cryptocurrencies as financial products, potentially reducing tax rates to 20%.

In October 2025, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization exhibited a “rise-then-fall” pattern, reflecting weak market confidence and a stabilizing trend. Driven by the “BTCFi” narrative, Starknet saw new highs in both capital inflows and on-chain activity, with TVL rising from $170 million at the end of September to $245 million. Prediction markets heated up, with Polymarket and Kalshi recording a combined monthly trading volume exceeding $7 billion. Privacy coins made a strong comeback, with ZEC surging more than 440% for the month and leading the rally. On the funding side, the Web3 sector completed 130 deals totaling $5.12 billion, up 28.43% month-over-month, with total capital raised jumping 104.8% — the second-highest level in nearly a year — with funds primarily flowing into DeFi ($2.15 billion) and core infrastructure.

Gate Research Daily Report: On November 14, after a period of volatile decline, BTC found short-term support near $98,000; ETH showed signs of a short-term rebound; GT stabilized with support around $10.9 and began to recover; while LUMINT became the market spotlight with a surge of over 670%. The first XRP spot ETF, launched by Canary Capital, began trading on Nasdaq; the Czech National Bank made its first-ever Bitcoin purchase, establishing a $1 million digital asset pilot portfolio; and Emory University doubled its Bitcoin holdings, investing $52 million to increase its stake in the Grayscale BTC ETF.

Gate Research Weekly Report: Bitcoin has fluctuated between $100,300 and $107,500 over the past week, and its consolidation phase is expected to continue. Visa has launched a stablecoin payment pilot, enabling platforms to pay content creators and freelancers directly in USDC. VCI Global plans to invest $100 million to acquire the OOB token of Oobit, a crypto payments company backed by Tether. The number of Ethereum validators has fallen back to April 2024 levels, while the exit queue waiting time has reached a new high. Meanwhile, Solana’s active address count has dropped to 3.3 million, the lowest level in a year. The x402 Network facilitators have processed more than 18.82 million transactions, marking a 35-fold increase since May.

The article examines historical investment cases and urges readers to remain humble and vigilant during periods of market exuberance, warning them not to overlook potential risks due to short-term gains.

This report presents comprehensive data and charts that demonstrate the correlation between the growth of the total market capitalization of the crypto market and the expansion of global risk asset market capitalization. It also analyzes how large-scale asset supply affects pricing.

The article provides an in-depth analysis of the "3/30" fee model’s rationale, explores the roles and challenges large funds encounter in the cryptocurrency market, and highlights the potential advantages of smaller funds and family offices.

The article not only explains the mechanism of quantitative easing but also discusses its uniqueness in the current economic environment, particularly its role in stimulating bubbles.

Gate Research Daily Report: On November 12, the cryptocurrency market remained in a weak consolidation phase with overall sentiment staying subdued. BTC edged up 0.36% to 103,261 USDT, while ETH rose 0.87% to 3,448 USDT, with technical indicators showing signs of weakening downside momentum. Among trending tokens, Lisk (+52.65%) led the market on strong inflows driven by its EMpower Fund and emerging market expansion; Allora (+10.54%) gained traction as its mainnet launch and multi-chain deployment reignited interest in the AI + Web3 narrative; and Canton Network (+11.81%) stood out in the enterprise blockchain sector with its new “Cantonics” economic model and developer incentive program. Meanwhile, Gate Connect launched the first-ever Apple Pay crypto-off-ramp feature, advancing Web3 payment adoption. Additionally, whale wallets accumulated over 36,000 BTC in the past two weeks, helping support Bitcoin’s consolidation around the $100,000 level.

Gate Research Daily Report: Bitcoin rebounded from the $100,000 support level, forming a bullish trendline around $104,000. Ethereum stabilized and bounced back from the $3,200 zone after experiencing a major liquidity shock. A centralized exchange listed the SEAM/USDT trading pair, expanding trading channels and driving SEAM up 74.17% within 24 hours. WLFI rose 18.75% in 24 hours, supported by an improving macro environment, political tailwinds, and technical momentum. The Ethereum Foundation launched the dAI team’s 2026 roadmap, reinforcing market focus on the AI+Web3 narrative. Meanwhile, the Senate approved a bill to end the government shutdown, potentially concluding the longest shutdown in history.

Gate Research Daily Report: On November 10, BTC stabilized around $103,000 before accelerating upward, reaching a short-term high of $106,683; ETH found support near $3,480 and initiated a new upward leg, hitting a short-term high of $3,658. ORE’s single-day revenue surpassed $1 million, with the V2 protocol igniting a Solana mining frenzy; x402 protocol’s ecosystem transaction volume plummeted 90% within half a month; Filecoin partnered with Avalanche to build a native cross-chain data bridge, accelerating the deployment of modular infrastructure.

Gate Research Daily Report: On November 7, BTC remained in a short-term weak consolidation pattern, trading narrowly around $101,500; ETH continued its downward trend, currently consolidating near $3,310. Meanwhile, yield-bearing stablecoins recorded their largest weekly outflow since the Luna collapse, totaling $1 billion. Gate launched a decentralized Web3 Launchpad, introducing a new fully on-chain token issuance model; and Google Finance announced plans to integrate prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket, bridging traditional finance with Web3 data ecosystems.

In October 2025, Layer2 and high-performance blockchains saw a rebound in activity, while on-chain structures remained differentiated. Arbitrum led the trend, with transaction volume up over 34% and more than $1 billion in net inflows driven by DRIP incentives and asset tokenization, solidifying its position as the leading Layer2 network. Starknet rose on the back of the BTCFi narrative, attracting a steady return of capital and users. Bitcoin entered a technical correction after retreating from its highs, with short-term positions stabilizing and long-term holders resuming accumulation, indicating a market rebalancing phase. Polymarket gained momentum with its narrative of merging prediction markets and traditional finance, surpassing $2.7 billion in monthly trading volume, while Humanity Protocol focused on “AI + DID” and zero-knowledge identity verification, with its token $H up over 300% in the past month, becoming a leading project in the decentralized identity sector.