Gate News, March 23 — Since March 17, XRP has declined approximately 15%, currently trading around $1.38. Technical charts indicate that the asset is in the right shoulder area of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. If the current support holds, there is still potential for an upward breakout; if it fails, the entire bullish structure risks collapsing.
The daily chart shows that this inverse head and shoulders pattern has been forming gradually since late February, with a target price suggesting about 20% upside. The current price is in the right shoulder area, about 8% below the pattern’s head at $1.26. If the price breaks below this head, the pattern will invalidate, and the trend may continue downward.
On-chain data supports the technical bottom. Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap shows approximately 203 million XRP clustered between $1.35 and $1.37, forming a dense support zone. A deeper zone between $1.28 and $1.29 contains about 497 million XRP, located above the pattern’s head. These two zones hold over 700 million XRP, composed of recent entrants during the decline, who are motivated to defend their holdings.
Net position change indicators show that despite a 15% price drop over the past five days, addresses holding for over 155 days have continued to accumulate, increasing from 236.4 million XRP on March 17 to 240.3 million on March 22. In derivatives, open interest has decreased from $909 million to $722 million—a 20% decline—indicating that the sell-off was mainly driven by leveraged position liquidations. Funding rates have also declined, suggesting cautiousness among new longs.
From a price path perspective, the first key resistance for XRP’s rebound is at $1.45. A daily close above this level would confirm the right shoulder. The more critical breakout point is at $1.57; surpassing this would lead to tests of $1.63 and $1.70. On the downside, $1.37 is the immediate support; if broken, the $1.28–$1.29 zone will be tested. The $1.26 level, as the pattern’s neckline, is the last line of defense—if the daily close falls below it, the bullish structure will be invalidated.
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