BlockBeats message, April 7, Citadel Securities reported that retail investors net sold U.S. stocks and options last week, in contrast to the rare trend of sustained buying that has persisted for years.
Net outflows in March fell 55% versus February and 70% versus January’s peak. Options activity shifted toward defensive positioning, with increased demand for downside protection.
Historically, this kind of retail selling behavior often signals a strong near-term rally in the S&P 500, with an average gain of 4.1% over a two-month period. Behind this shift is that oil prices rose in March and market volatility was triggered by the Iran conflict, causing the S&P 500 to be down 5% year-to-date, while Brent crude oil prices rose by 80%.
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