Since May 1st, the overall cryptocurrency market has been operating within a typical bullish trend but with near-term resistance in the technical structure. Bitcoin (BTC) has strongly broken through the range bottom, solidifying the late April lows as a new support level; Ethereum (ETH), benefiting from the fundamental boost of the Glamsterdam upgrade, has shown relatively weaker upward momentum. The market's dominant narrative is shifting from "oversold recovery" to "trend confirmation," with bulls and bears repeatedly battling near key psychological thresholds.
This round of market movement is mainly driven by the resonance of four major factors: ongoing easing of external geopolitical tensions (U.S. Secretary of State Blinken officially announced on May 5th that the "offensive phase" of U.S. military actions against Iran has ended), data from Coinglass showing continuous net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, providing solid institutional support; the substantive compromise on the Clarity Act and the simplified disclosure procedures required by the SEC jointly form a positive regulatory framework; institutions previously deploying during the period of rate cut expectations have now entered a phase of profit-taking and trend confirmation.
Trend structure: After briefly retesting $76k at the end of April (once impacted by hawkish Federal Reserve statements causing a dip below key short-term moving averages), Bitcoin launched a significant "V-shaped" rebound in early May. On the daily chart, the price has effectively risen above the 50-day EMA ($74,945) and the 100-day EMA ($76,098), with the MACD indicator forming a bullish crossover, and RSI rebounding to around 48, maintaining a complete bullish position structure.
Key resistance and support levels: The first major resistance is near the 200-day EMA at approximately $81,918, along with a broad resistance zone between $82,352 and $85,777, mainly formed by the 100-week and 50-week EMAs. Glassnode also defines $85,200 as the "realized price"—the average cost basis of non-sleeping supply—once this level is broken with volume, it will mark the structural restart of the bull market. Short-term key support is at the psychological level of $80k, with deeper defenses at the Fibonacci zone around $76,000 and the macro trend bottom at $74,917.
Derivatives market signals: A highly notable abnormal signal is that the perpetual contract funding rate has remained negative for over two months, with recent added liquidations of about $326.71 million in long positions, including approximately $188 million in active Bitcoin liquidations. The negative funding rate combined with rising prices indicates the market has accumulated significant short positions. If spot buying continues, it could trigger a short squeeze in the short term. Meanwhile, market makers have positioned about $2 billion in "short gamma" positions around $82,000, with routine hedging operations due to underlying volatility, which could further amplify price elasticity.
Ethereum (ETH) technical analysis
Trend features: Ethereum completed the largest-scale Glamsterdam mainnet upgrade on May 1st, increasing the block gas limit from 60 million to 200 million in one go, significantly expanding on-chain computational throughput and effectively reducing the rollup settlement costs for Layer 2 solutions, keeping overall transaction fees low. However, on-chain data also shows some concerns: active users on the network have declined sharply from their peak in January, and gas fees have remained low at around 1 gwei, weakening the deflationary expectations of Ethereum tokens.
Key price level analysis: In the short term, ETH is repeatedly facing resistance around $2,300–$2,380. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement resistance at approximately $2,380 is the most critical technical test point recently. If the daily closing price breaks through this level effectively, the technical structure is likely to activate potential attacks toward $2,550 and even $2,800 zones. Support levels are at the 50-day EMA near $2,263 and the consolidation zone around $2,200. If the downward move breaks below, the next deep defense zone shifts passively to the $2,050–$2,070 range.
Currently, Bitcoin has clearly surpassed the psychological threshold of $80,000 and completed the most effective trend breakout in over three months. The market has transitioned from the purely "oversold recovery phase" to a neutral "trend confirmation phase," with major institutional players gradually building a structural accumulation framework. However, in the technical chart, a complete bull market restart still requires crossing the important structural threshold of $85,000—otherwise, the current upward effort may only remain within a phase of range-bound oscillation.
For Ethereum, the fundamental upgrade's long-term positive effects are gradually becoming evident. The continuous influx of institutional whale buying and ETF funds shifting from net outflows to net inflows are undoubtedly positive signals. But in the short to medium term, it is necessary to observe whether the actual token burn rate on the network resumes growth. Additionally, if the resistance zone between $2,380 and $2,400 can be further broken with a closing price, it will open an effective channel for bulls to expand their gains.
Risk warning: On the macroeconomic front, the non-farm payroll data to be released this Friday will be an external variable for short-term market re-pricing; meanwhile, the persistent negative funding rates in perpetual contracts, while implying potential short squeeze risks, also indicate that more professional traders remain cautious and defensive about further upward price movement. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. still pose potential volatility sources, which could impact short-term risk sentiment, so vigilance is required! $BTC
