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潜在的空头消息
明天,最高法院将裁定特朗普时代的关税是否合法。
如果法院判定基于IEEPA的关税非法,美国政府可能被迫向进口商退还超过1335亿美元的关税。
据Polymarket显示,目前大约有75%的概率裁定关税非法。
市场的确切反应难以预测:
• 市场可能最初会积极反应,因为关税通常被视为对增长不利
• 或者他们可能关注美国政府巨额的退税义务,转向避险(更可能)
预计本周末将出现巨大波动