Gate Latest Crypto Assets Market Analysis (October 17): Bitcoin is at 108,000 in the "fear" zone, with institutional holdings exceeding one million coins.

Gate's cryptocurrency market analysis on October 17 shows that the Bitcoin price is predicted to fluctuate between $107,000 and $112,000 in the short term, with the current quote at $108,800, a slight increase of 0.51% over the past 24 hours. The biggest highlight in the market is that the amount of coins held by listed companies has surpassed 1 million, institutional investments continue to increase, and the regulatory environment is gradually becoming clearer.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Institutional Million Coin Holdings as Key Support

The core variable in Bitcoin price prediction is the direction of institutional investment. Currently, the BTC price is $108,800, with a 24-hour pump of 0.51%, and a trading volume of $2.658 billion, indicating ample market liquidity. The key support level is at $107,000, which has been tested multiple times recently without being breached. The key resistance level is at $112,000, and a breakout will open up new upward space.

The most important fundamental change is that the amount of coins held by listed companies has surpassed 1 million BTC. According to data from Bitcoin Treasuries, listed companies such as Strategy and Tesla have collectively held more than 1 million Bitcoins, worth over 10.88 billion USD. This institutional-level long-term holding provides strong support for the price, as these companies adopt a buy-and-hold strategy and will not easily sell off.

The gradually clarified regulatory environment also provides positive support for Bitcoin price predictions. The approval of the spot ETF by the U.S. SEC has made Bitcoin a mainstream financial asset, allowing institutional investors to allocate BTC through compliant channels. This institutionalization process reduces policy risks and attracts more conservative institutions to enter the market.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Short-Term Trading Strategy:

Entry Range: 107,000 to 109,000 USD, current price 108,800 is within a reasonable buying zone.

Stop Loss Setting: 101.65 thousand USD (-5%), to prevent the risk of breaking down.

Take Profit Target: 114,240 USD (+5%), conservative target; after breaking 112,000 USD, can look up to 118,000 USD

Position Suggestion: 10-15% of total assets, avoid excessive leverage.

From a technical perspective, BTC has formed multiple support levels at 107,000 USD, indicating strong buying pressure. However, a breakthrough of the 112,000 USD resistance requires a higher trading volume. Currently, the daily trading volume of 2.658 billion USD is at a healthy level, but to break through, it needs to increase to over 3.5 billion USD.

Ethereum trading volume surpasses BTC Crypto Assets market analysis new signal

The most surprising data in the analysis of Crypto Assets market is that Ethereum spot trading volume has surpassed Bitcoin for the first time. The current price of ETH is $3,919, with a 24-hour pump of 0.63%, and the trading volume reached $1.29 billion. Although the absolute number is still lower than BTC's $2.658 billion, when calculating the proportion of spot trading volume, the activity of ETH spot trading has surpassed that of BTC.

This phenomenon reflects the increase in the ecological activity of Ethereum. With the maturity of Layer 2 solutions, the revival of DeFi protocols, and the warming of the NFT market, the actual use cases for ETH are expanding. The active participation of institutional trading is also a significant factor, as many hedge funds and family offices are starting to view ETH as “digital oil” for allocation.

The key support level for ETH is at $3,825, and the key resistance level is at $4,086. After breaking through $4,086, ETH will challenge its historical high of $4,878. From a technical perspective, ETH is performing stronger relative to BTC, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is building a bottom and rebounding.

Ethereum Short-Term Trading Strategy:

Entry Range: $3,800 to $3,950

Stop Loss Setting: $3,565 (-7%), ETH volatility is higher than BTC, stop loss needs to be relaxed.

Take Profit Target: $4,193 (+7%), can hold until $4,500 after breaking $4,086

Position Suggestion: 8-12% of total assets

The mid-term investment strategy suggests a configuration of 60% BTC, 30% ETH, and 10% other coins. This configuration enjoys the stability of BTC while capturing the growth potential of the ETH ecosystem.

Shanzhai Coin Pump and Market Sentiment Interpretation

Crypto Assets market analysis must pay attention to the fluctuations of altcoins. Moonchain (MCH) surged 53.93% in 24 hours, priced at 0.012 USD, with a trading volume of 86,900 USD. MCH is a Binance Alpha project, and there are strong expectations for its listing on the exchange. Binance Alpha usually consists of projects on the observation list before they go live on the Binance main board, and selected projects often receive a lot of attention.

WELL3 pump 33.02%, quoted at 0.000085 USD, with a trading volume of 18.6 thousand USD. CORL pump 31.57%, quoted at 0.038 USD, with a trading volume of 380.9 thousand USD. The common characteristics of these altcoins are low price, low market cap, and high volatility, making them suitable for short-term trading by investors with a high risk appetite.

However, the Fear and Greed Index is only 28, indicating a “fear” stage, showing that the overall market sentiment is cautious. This sentiment contrasts with the surge of altcoins, indicating that funds are seeking high-risk, high-return opportunities rather than being broadly optimistic. Historical experience shows that when the Fear Index is below 30, the market is often in a bottom area, indicating potential upward momentum.

The market liquidity health assessment shows that the daily trading volume of BTC and ETH is ample, with relatively stable prices and fluctuations within a controllable range. The arbitrage opportunities for mainstream coins are limited, indicating that the market is in a balanced state. This balance may be disrupted by external catalysts, such as SEC regulatory developments or large-scale institutional layouts.

Market Outlook and Risk Warning

The analysis of the Crypto Assets market outlook is as follows: Bull market probability 40%, ranging market probability 50%, bear market probability 10%. This probability distribution indicates that the market is leaning towards a ranging phase, but the likelihood of a bull market is significantly higher than that of a bear market.

Key catalysts include:

Clear Regulation: If the United States passes cryptocurrency legislation, it will eliminate the greatest uncertainty.

Institutional Large-Scale Layout: If more listed companies announce the purchase of BTC, it will drive the price to break through.

ETF Fund Inflow: Continuous net inflow into ETFs is a necessary condition for a bull market.

Core Risk Aspects:

Systemic Risk: Global economic uncertainty, especially the escalation of the US-China trade war, may trigger a risk aversion sentiment.

Regulatory Risk: A sudden shift in policy may undermine market confidence.

Liquidity Risk: Market sentiment fluctuations may lead to liquidity exhaustion.

Bitcoin price is expected to remain volatile in the short term. If the support at 107,000 is lost, the next target will be the psychological level of 100,000. If the resistance at 112,000 is broken, it will challenge 120,000. Investors should adopt a strategy of building positions in batches and implementing strict stop-loss measures, with a risk level assessment of moderate.