Raoul Pal memperingatkan: Jika The Federal Reserve (FED) tidak mencetak uang lagi, QE "Likuiditas akan kekurangan", atau akan terulang kembali krisis keuangan pasar repo tahun 2018.

The Federal Reserve and the Treasury are competing for liquidity control before the end of the year. The market is worried about a repeat of the 2018 crisis, and funding pressures are tightening the bank repurchase market. Investors are turning their attention to enkripsi as a safe haven, with liquidity being key. (Background: The first commandment of trading: Discuss clear risk control and stop loss) (Supplementary background: From leverage turun ke nol to stable profits: Six years of experience and lessons from a crypto trader) After more than a month of the U.S. government shutdown, Wall Street is shrouded in the shadow of a potential rupture in the “funding pipeline.” Macro observer Raoul Pal warns that if the Federal Reserve does not ease liquidity before the end of the month, the market may see a repeat of the 2018 repurchase crisis. The usage of the standing repo facility (SRF) surged to $50.35 billion on October 31, highlighting the banking system's thirst for short-term funding. However, the “stigma effect” makes banks reluctant to seek help frequently, causing the funding gap to remain hidden beneath the surface calm. Pipeline tightening: Rapid depletion of reserves The most direct trigger for the liquidity tension comes from the Treasury's general account (TGA)'s wild fluctuations and quantitative tightening (QT)'s dual pressure. When the government issues bonds or spends, the TGA pulls funds from the banking system within days; QT continues to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, causing bank reserves to be squeezed out like toothpaste. The current situation is strikingly similar to the prelude to the surge in overnight repurchase rates from 2018 to 2019. The Federal Reserve has urgently convened large banks to meet with the New York Fed to discuss why the SRF has not become the “last buyer.” The liquidity tug-of-war between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve Liquidity management is no longer just a matter of monetary policy, but a political tug-of-war involving elections and fiscal deficits. Market participants point out that the Treasury hopes funds reach the real economy through bank loans to strengthen employment and wages, thus gaining an edge in the elections before 2026. This route is fundamentally different from the Federal Reserve's traditional quantitative easing (QE): the former points to Main Street, while the latter often flows to asset markets. BlackRock's analysis emphasizes that the TGA's revenue and expenditure can change bank reserves in a short period, intensifying market fluctuations; conversely, while QE is massive in scale, it is often criticized for “not reaching the corner coffee shop.” Raoul Pal believes the Treasury's approach is akin to using a “devalued smoke bomb” to pay for the massive deficit, with Wall Street benefiting indirectly from the rising collateral prices. Short-term bailouts and eSLR long-term impas The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to possibly expand repurchase operations or increase SRF dimensions this month to inject temporary oxygen into banks. However, what can truly lift the constraints is the rumored eSLR reform in the first quarter of 2026. The eSLR's upper limit on large banks' holdings of government bonds and reserves is like a tightening spell; once relaxed, banks will be able to absorb more government debt and re-leverage their balance sheets. Raoul Pal describes this reform as a “giant liquidity rocket launcher,” believing it will converge in 2026 with the release of funds from TGA and the easing of QT pressures to form a “flood of liquidity.” The cow bell and the role of enkripsi Currently, enkripsi is like a safety valve trapped in a pressure cooker, with trading volume and prices simultaneously reflecting funding anxiety. However, as long as the liquidity gates open in 2026, fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries. Raoul Pal describes the future scene: “The sound of cow bells in the distance is getting louder and closer.” This is driven by $7 trillion in interest payments and debt expansion, marking the next cycle. For investors, high liquidity and high volatility will come together, and the core of the “everything crypto” lies in understanding when and by whom liquidity is released. The current situation seems merely a technical “pipeline adjustment,” but is actually intertwined with monetary policy, fiscal deficits, and electoral interests. Short-term bailout measures may avoid a funding chain break at the end of the year, but if the eSLR is ultimately relaxed, the global market will inevitably face a new wave of asset price inflation. Understanding this power game is key for investors to hold their positions and seize opportunities amid the tumultuous end of 2025. Related reports: Arthur Hayes predicts: $ZEC will rise to $1000! Is the Privacy Coin race a big win or reckless speculation? Buying ZEC to dump BTC? The four industry truths behind the surge of Privacy Coins. Leap Therapeutics transforms into “Privacy Coin ZEC Reserve Company”: has bought 200,000 Zcash, receiving a $58 million investment from the founder of Gemini. (Raoul Pal warns: If the Federal Reserve does not print money for QE, “liquidity will be short,” or a repeat of the 2018 repo market financial crisis.) This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential Blockchain news media.