Analysis: For the Fed to cut interest rates, the unemployment rate must rise.

According to foreign media analysis on August 1, Jin10 reported that Powell has repeatedly told reporters this week that he believes the best indicator of economic health at present is the unemployment rate. He pointed out that the unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, which has changed little over the past year, while the inflation rate is further away from the Fed’s target. Therefore, he stated that most policymakers believe this situation indicates there is no reason to adjust the interest rate. Meanwhile, Powell refused to commit to a rate cut in September in advance, and Thursday’s inflation data exceeded expectations, casting a shadow over the prospects of when to resume rate cuts. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the unemployment rate data for July on Friday, and the Fed is unlikely to cut rates unless there is a deterioration in the labor market; to prompt a rate cut from the Fed, the unemployment rate must rise.