1. OpenAI surprises with the launch of the AI short video application Sora App
OpenAI officially released Sora 2 today. This next-generation audiovisual generation model is not only more realistic and physically accurate, but it can also achieve synchronized dialogue and sound effects, with greater controllability. The newly launched Sora App allows users to create, remake, and interact with generated videos, even transforming themselves into the main character of the films.
The video generation technology has made significant breakthroughs. The Sora series was first released in February 2024, showcasing for the first time the capabilities of video generation models in aspects such as object persistence and scene continuity. Building on this, Sora 2 further enhances the ability to handle complex scenarios that previous models struggled to generate accurately, such as Olympic-level gymnastics movements, backflips on a stand-up paddleboard, and even completing a 3.5 rotation jump while balancing a cat on one's head during figure skating. Sora 2 offers a more realistic physical simulation, addressing issues where past video models often violated the laws of physics.
The launch of the Sora App will further unleash the creative potential of video generation. Users can not only create videos on their own but also interact with the generated content, such as through dialogue, adding sound effects, etc. In addition, the app also supports users uploading selfies to digitize themselves as the main character in the video. This immersive experience will bring new possibilities for film and television content creation.
The breakthrough in video generation technology will have a profound impact on content creation, virtual reality, and other fields. In the future, film production can leverage AI to reduce costs; fields like gaming and social media can also incorporate more immersive virtual scenes. At the same time, legal issues such as copyright ownership and intellectual property protection for AI-generated content will become a focal point of widespread societal concern.
2. JPMorgan Chase launches the world's first AI-driven super bank, Agentic AI.
JPMorgan Chase is transforming into an AI-driven enterprise, showcasing a robot that can create investment banking presentations in 30 seconds. This innovation is part of their LM suite, aimed at increasing efficiency and reducing staff while maintaining a competitive edge in the financial sector.
Agentic AI is referred to as the world's first "super bank" driven by artificial intelligence. It integrates advanced technologies such as large language models and conversational AI, enabling it to autonomously handle various business processes of investment banking, including report generation, data analysis, and communication with clients. This system not only saves a significant amount of manpower but also ensures consistency in service quality.
JPMorgan stated that Agentic AI is just the beginning of the bank's transformation towards AI. In the future, they will deploy AI systems in more areas of business to improve operational efficiency. Analysts point out that this approach will have a profound impact on the traditional financial industry. On one hand, the involvement of AI will significantly reduce banks' labor costs; on the other hand, it will intensify homogeneous competition in the banking industry, and service differentiation may become the new focus of competition in the industry.
At the same time, the safety and controllability issues of AI systems will receive widespread attention from all sectors of society. Once a loss of control occurs, it will pose a huge risk to bank operations and customer rights. Therefore, ensuring the safety and reliability of AI systems while improving efficiency will be a major challenge faced by the banking industry's AI transformation.
3. The US government shuts down again, gold and Bitcoin react strongly.
Due to Congress's failure to reach an agreement on federal government funding, the U.S. government shut down at midnight local time on October 1. This marks the second government shutdown in the U.S. since 2018.
Gold prices and Bitcoin prices reacted significantly after the news was announced. New York futures gold briefly broke through $3900 per ounce, setting a new historical high. Bitcoin also rose more than 3% in a short period. Analysts believe this reflects investors' concerns about the economic uncertainty brought about by the government shutdown.
The government shutdown will directly affect the salary payments of approximately 800,000 federal employees and may lead to disruptions in some government services. If the duration is too long, it could also impact the release of economic data and business operations.
At the same time, the government shutdown will exacerbate the opposition between the two parties on issues such as fiscal deficits and the debt ceiling. The Republican Party hopes to cut government spending, while the Democratic Party advocates for maintaining current spending levels. If both sides cannot reach a compromise, the government shutdown may last for a while.
Analysts point out that while the government shutdown has limited short-term economic impact, if it lasts too long, it will exacerbate the market's risk aversion sentiment, thereby affecting the operation of financial markets. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor the subsequent political game dynamics.
4. The Ethereum ecosystem is under scrutiny, with continuous capital outflows triggering a crisis of trust.
Ethereum is undergoing an unprecedented wave of skepticism. Since the launch of the ETF, there has been a net sell-off/capital outflow of over $1.2 billion, leading to a significant trust crisis among Ethereum's core researchers/EF, the developer community, Consensys-related business entities, and external investors.
Vitalik needs to better guide different participants in terms of direction and goals, as Ethereum has already become a very large decentralized business entity in the entire cryptocurrency market and even in the traditional market. There has never been such a business entity in history, and the challenges for the entire Ethereum community and Vitalik will only become more severe, reaching a point where one must break in order to establish anew.
The most discussed topic in this 2049 discussion turned out to be the Ton ecosystem. Currently, Western funds are generally not optimistic about Ton and Web2 platforms; however, they have not answered the question of whether to invest or not.
The Ethereum ecosystem is facing unprecedented challenges. Continuous outflows of funds and a lack of confidence among participants regarding its future development will severely impact the progress of Ethereum. Vitalik Buterin needs to provide a clear direction for the entire ecosystem and rebuild the confidence of participants.
At the same time, other public chain ecosystems such as Ton are emerging, attracting the attention of some investors. In the future, whether Ethereum can maintain its leading position largely depends on its ability to resolve the current trust crisis and launch attractive innovative applications.
5. The crypto gaming sector is in trouble, and the industry is calling for innovative breakthroughs.
The gaming track has become exceptionally difficult, with all participants losing confidence. Crypto games are forcing participants to leave or innovate with more challenging products and fun games. Of course, we are still looking for teams that have faith in the games and consensus in the Crypto market.
Here I advocate for adjustments to the practicality and unlocking terms of tokens. The current unlocking mechanism and practicality have significant issues, and I call for broader discussions and research within the industry. The traditional IPO investment lock-up period only requires 6 months to a year, while the liquidity lock-up for investments in ultra-early-stage seed round companies in crypto astonishingly reaches 3 to 4 years.
The crypto gaming sector is facing numerous challenges. Participants have lost confidence in the prospects of this sector, and the quality and innovation of the games are lacking, leading to user attrition. Meanwhile, there are many issues with the token economic model, including prolonged lock-up periods affecting liquidity and low practicality.
The industry is calling for innovative adjustments to the token economic model, shortening the lock-up period and improving the utility of tokens to attract more users to participate. At the same time, developing more creative and appealing gaming products is also key to revitalizing this sector.
Overall, the crypto gaming sector is in a downturn and requires collective efforts from the entire industry to break through the bottlenecks, drive innovation, and rebuild confidence for sustainable development. The power of individual companies or teams is limited, and there is a need to strengthen internal communication and cooperation within the industry.
2. Industry News
1. Bitcoin returns to the $118,000 mark, triggering bullish sentiment in the market.
The price of Bitcoin broke through the $118,000 mark on October 2, with a daily increase of 4.47%. This rebound is seen as a signal of recovery in the cryptocurrency market. Analysts expect that if Bitcoin can maintain above this level, it may trigger a new bull market.
The rise of Bitcoin is mainly driven by several factors. First, the ongoing government shutdown in the United States has intensified uncertainty in traditional financial markets, leading investors to turn to safe-haven assets like Bitcoin. Second, the significant activity of large whale addresses on cryptocurrency exchanges has also injected liquidity into the market. Additionally, the accelerated approval process for cryptocurrency ETFs by regulatory agencies has boosted the confidence of institutional investors.
Analysts point out that after Bitcoin broke through the $118,000 mark, the next key resistance level is $120,000. If it can break through this threshold, it will pave the way for Bitcoin's price to reach $130,000. However, some analysts also remind that Bitcoin faces the risk of profit-taking at high levels, and investors should operate cautiously.
Overall, the rebound of Bitcoin has sparked bullish sentiment in the market, but there is still uncertainty regarding future trends. Investors need to closely monitor the fundamentals and regulatory developments, and carefully seize investment opportunities.
2. Ethereum faces capital outflow, ETF approval may trigger a new round of selling
Despite the overall recovery trend in the cryptocurrency market, Ethereum has shown signs of capital outflow. Data indicates that $1.6 billion in stablecoins have flowed out of the Ethereum network in the past 24 hours, which may put pressure on Ethereum's price.
Analysts believe that the large outflow of stablecoins reflects a decline in investor confidence in Ethereum. On one hand, the congestion of the Ethereum network and high gas fees have been pain points criticized by users; on the other hand, some popular projects within the Ethereum ecosystem have also recently experienced a loss of users.
In addition, news about regulatory agencies soon approving the first Ethereum ETF may also exacerbate capital outflows. Once the ETF is approved, institutional investors may choose to invest through the ETF rather than holding Ether directly, triggering a new wave of sell-offs.
However, some analysts are optimistic about this. They believe that the outflow of stablecoins may just be a temporary adjustment, reflecting a reallocation of funds within the Ethereum ecosystem. With the continuous advancement of Ethereum 2.0 and the incubation of more innovative applications, the long-term prospects of Ethereum still look promising.
Overall, Ethereum faces both challenges and opportunities. Investors need to closely monitor regulatory trends and technological advancements, and cautiously seize investment opportunities.
The Solana ecosystem has recently performed brilliantly, with its token SOL price breaking through the $220 mark on October 2. Analysts believe this is mainly driven by optimistic expectations for the approval of the Solana ETF.
It is reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is about to make a ruling on the Solana ETF application. Once approved, it will benefit institutional investors' participation in the Solana market, thereby injecting new momentum into the rise of SOL prices. In addition, the continuously emerging innovative applications within the Solana ecosystem also add confidence to its long-term development.
However, some analysts are cautious about the continued rise in SOL prices. They point out that the Solana ecosystem has recently encountered multiple security incidents, which could affect investor confidence. At the same time, the uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market remains high, and the SOL price faces the risk of profit-taking.
Overall, the development prospects of the Solana ecosystem are broad, but potential risks must also be heeded. Investors need to comprehensively assess the fundamentals of Solana and the regulatory landscape, and cautiously seize investment opportunities.
4. Altcoins are performing remarkably, reflecting investors' enthusiasm for innovative projects.
Against the backdrop of a general recovery in the cryptocurrency market, some altcoin projects have stood out remarkably. Data shows that popular altcoins like Pudgy Penguins saw double-digit gains on October 1, significantly outperforming mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Analysts believe that the strong performance of altcoin projects reflects investors' enthusiasm for innovative projects. Compared to mature projects like Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoins often have greater room for development and imagination, attracting a considerable amount of speculative funds.
However, some analysts express concerns about the bubble of altcoin projects. They point out that many altcoin projects lack practical application scenarios, and their price increases are primarily driven by speculative trading. Once market sentiment changes, these projects may face the risk of a sharp decline.
Overall, the performance of altcoin projects is worth paying attention to, but investors should also remain rational. While embracing innovation, they should carefully assess the actual value of the projects to avoid blindly following trends.
5. XRP price stabilizes above 3 dollars, regulatory expectations may trigger a new round of increases.
Recently, the price of XRP has stabilized above $3 and shows signs of further increase. Analysts believe this is mainly driven by regulatory expectations.
It is reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is about to make a ruling on the securities nature of XRP. If it rules that XRP is not a security, it will be beneficial for the development of XRP in the U.S., thereby injecting new momentum for its price increase. In addition, the approval of XRP ETFs by regulatory agencies may also drive institutional funds to flow in.
However, some analysts remain cautious about the continued rise in XRP prices. They point out that XRP has faced the shadow of regulatory uncertainty in recent years, and even if it gains approval from regulators, it is difficult to completely reverse the negative market sentiment. At the same time, the relative lag in XRP's technological innovation may also restrict its long-term development.
Overall, the regulatory outlook for XRP may see a turnaround, but its long-term development still requires time. Investors need to comprehensively assess the fundamentals and regulatory situation of XRP and cautiously seize investment opportunities.
6. Shiba Inu coin is in a state of fluctuation, and the key support level may determine the next price movement.
Shiba Inu Coin ( SHIB ) has recently shown lackluster performance, hovering around the key support level of $0.00001150. Analysts believe that whether this support level is broken or not may determine the future trend of SHIB.
If SHIB can gain strong support at the position of $0.00001150, it will provide an opportunity for its price to stop falling and stabilize. At that time, SHIB may look for resistance levels in the range of $0.00001940 to $0.00002400.
On the contrary, if SHIB falls below the key support level of $0.00001150, it may trigger further declines. Analysts expect that in this case, the next support level for SHIB could be around $0.00001000.
The key factors affecting the SHIB trend include changes in the supply on exchanges, the activity of whale addresses, and the progress of the Shiba Inu team's promotion of the Shibarium upgrade. Overall, SHIB will continue to maintain a oscillating pattern in the short term, and investors need to closely monitor its fundamental changes.
7. Privacy coins collectively strengthened, reflecting the market's emphasis on privacy protection.
On October 2nd, privacy coins performed impressively, with several tokens experiencing double-digit increases. Among them, ZEC had a daily increase of as much as 57.2%, while DASH and XVG saw increases of 42.9% and 25.9%, respectively.
Analysts believe that the collective strength of privacy coins reflects the market's increasing emphasis on privacy protection. As regulatory agencies intensify their scrutiny of cryptocurrencies, the demand for privacy protection among investors is also growing day by day.
However, some analysts are cautious about the long-term development prospects of privacy coins. They point out that privacy coins are often vulnerable to misuse by criminals, which could attract significant attention from regulatory agencies. At the same time, the relatively lagging technological innovation of privacy coins may also restrict their long-term development.
Overall, the short-term performance of privacy coins is worth paying attention to, but investors should also be wary of potential risks. While pursuing privacy protection, one should also carefully assess the compliance and technical strength of the projects.
8. The Aptos ecosystem is developing rapidly, and the token price may fluctuate in the short term.
Aptos is a recently highly regarded emerging public chain project, and its ecosystem is developing rapidly. According to data, the price of the Aptos token APT hovered around $4.55 on October 2, increasing by 8.2% during the day.
Analysts believe that the rapid development of the Aptos ecosystem is mainly due to its technological innovations and financial strength. As an emerging public chain project, Aptos has made several innovative attempts in areas such as consensus mechanisms and scalability, attracting considerable attention from investors.
However, some analysts remain cautious about the continued rise in APT prices. They point out that the Aptos ecosystem is currently still in its early stages of development and faces many uncertainties. At the same time, APT prices may experience fluctuations in the short term due to profit-taking.
Overall, the Aptos ecosystem
3. Project News
1. Announce major protocol upgrade, launching millisecond-level underlying chain
is an on-chain derivatives protocol that has accumulated over $300 billion in trading volume since its launch in 2021. Recently, the protocol announced a major upgrade that will introduce a new high-performance underlying chain, achieving millisecond-level order execution and institutional-level liquidity depth.
This upgrade will be powered by a brand new modular engine, achieving order execution speeds in the single-digit millisecond range while maintaining complete on-chain transparency, and integrating institutional-level liquidity to support large transactions. This innovation is expected to provide traders with a top-tier trading experience while upholding the open spirit of DeFi.
It is emphasized that this upgrade aims to implement the core concept of "Trader First, Zero Compromise." The protocol will start internal testing in October, working hand in hand with core partners to refine the infrastructure and prepare for the full launch. The community will be at the heart of the upgrade process, and a series of activities will be launched in the future to invite traders to participate in the construction.
Analysts believe that the upgrade of this protocol is expected to further enhance the competitiveness of on-chain derivatives. Millisecond-level execution speed and institutional-grade liquidity depth will attract more institutional participants, driving the development of the DeFi derivatives market. At the same time, the fully on-chain transparency characteristic is also beneficial for increasing user trust.
2. The Sui ecosystem welcomes USDC stablecoin support, promoting ecological development.
Sui is an emerging blockchain network created by former Meta employees. Recently, the Sui ecosystem has received major good news, as Grayscale Trust announced that it will launch the USDC stablecoin on Sui. In addition, Sui and its listed company SUI Group will also launch the suiUSDe stablecoin.
The addition of stablecoins will bring liquidity support to the Sui ecosystem, which is beneficial for attracting more DeFi applications and users. Grayscale Trust is one of the largest institutional investors in the cryptocurrency industry, and its USDC has a wide influence in the industry. Meanwhile, suiUSDe is supported by the well-known institution BlackRock.
In addition to stablecoin support, the Sui ecosystem has made other noteworthy progress recently. Sui set up the largest game booth at the KBW conference in South Korea, showcasing its ambitions in the GameFi sector. Furthermore, Sui has launched innovative products such as SuiPlay.
Analysts believe that the addition of stablecoins signifies that the Sui ecosystem has initially established the necessary infrastructure for DeFi development. In the future, Sui is expected to become another important public blockchain following Ethereum and Solana. However, Sui currently has relatively few tradable assets and a limited number of star projects, and it still needs to further incubate ecosystem projects.
3. Consensys founder elaborates on the key points of Ethereum's development
At the Token2049 conference in Singapore, Consensys founder Joseph Lubin outlined three key areas of development for the future of Ethereum: scalability, optimizing user experience, and foundational research and development.
Regarding scalability, Lubin stated that Ethereum will achieve "million-level TPS" to support mainstream applications by optimizing the mainnet Gas limit and utilizing Layer 2. In terms of user experience, the focus will be on addressing pain points such as the complexity of private key management and fluctuations in Gas fees. Basic research and development will emphasize zero-knowledge proof technology to ensure privacy and security.
In addition, Lubin also mentioned the potential for the fusion of AI and blockchain. He believes that Ethereum smart contracts can address the pain point of "unverifiable" AI inference results, while AI can optimize Ethereum gas fee adjustments and node selection. He urged developers to pay attention to the needs of the real economy and emphasized that Ethereum needs to establish a trust system without intermediaries through vertical and horizontal decentralization.
Analysts say that the three key points articulated by Lubin hit the pain points and needs of Ethereum's current development. Scaling and optimizing user experience will enhance Ethereum's performance and usability, while foundational research will help improve security and privacy protection. The integration with AI will also bring new development opportunities for Ethereum.
4. Kalshi plans to launch mainstream crypto applications
Kalshi is a regulated prediction market platform in the United States. Recently, John Wang, the head of cryptocurrency at Kalshi, revealed that Kalshi will launch on "every major cryptocurrency application and exchange" within the next 12 months.
Kalshi is building a utility-focused diversified builder ecosystem that includes real-time event data being pushed to the blockchain for developers to use. Other efforts also include building complex data dashboards, AI agents, and new information arbitrage platforms.
Last month, Kalshi launched an ecosystem support network in collaboration with Solana and Base, providing special funding for off-chain and on-chain innovators. This indicates that Kalshi is increasing its investment in the blockchain ecosystem.
Analysts believe that Kalshi's move will further drive the development of prediction markets in the crypto space. Prediction markets are seen as an important DeFi innovation that can provide an efficient price discovery mechanism for various events. As a regulated platform, Kalshi's entry into mainstream crypto applications will help enhance user trust.
However, Kalshi is still a newcomer in the blockchain field, and whether its ecosystem development can progress as scheduled remains to be seen. Nevertheless, Kalshi's entry will bring new vitality to the crypto prediction market.
4. Economic Dynamics
1. The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is increasing, casting a shadow over the economic outlook.
The current U.S. economy is maintaining a moderate growth trend overall, with a year-on-year annualized growth of 2.1% in GDP for the second quarter, slightly below expectations. The inflation rate has receded but remains high, with the core PCE price index rising 4.9% year-on-year in August. The job market remains strong, with an unemployment rate of 3.7% in August and an increase of 315,000 in the employed population.
However, the U.S. government is facing the risk of a shutdown, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. Congress has failed to reach an agreement on the fiscal year 2024 spending bill, resulting in government funding running out on October 1. If the shutdown lasts too long, it will freeze certain government expenditures, affect the operation of public services, and may hinder economic growth.
Goldman Sachs analysts stated that if the government shutdown lasts for a week, it could drag down GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points for the quarter. S&P Global Ratings warned that a prolonged shutdown would exacerbate economic uncertainty and could trigger turmoil in the financial markets.
American economist Mark Zandi believes that the risk of a government shutdown has heightened concerns about an economic slowdown. He pointed out that although the job market remains strong, consumer confidence is declining, corporate investment is weak, and trade disputes are casting a shadow over economic growth.
Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Cohen emphasized that a government shutdown could affect the release of economic data, increasing the uncertainty of monetary policy decisions. He urged Congress to resolve their differences as soon as possible to avoid further impacts on the economy.
2. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points, raising concerns over high inflation in the Eurozone.
The European Central Bank recently raised interest rates by 75 basis points, increasing the benchmark rate to 3.25%, the highest level since the Eurozone was established in 1999. This move aims to curb rising inflation, as the inflation rate in the Eurozone reached 10% in September, far exceeding the ECB's target of 2%.
High inflation is eroding the purchasing power of European consumers and increasing cost pressures on businesses. Soaring energy prices and supply chain disruptions are the primary causes of rising inflation. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated this situation, with the EU imposing sanctions on Russian energy, leading to skyrocketing prices for gas and electricity.
European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that the inflation outlook is "extremely uncertain" and that there may be further interest rate hikes in the future. She emphasized that the central bank is determined to firmly re-anchor the inflation rate at the 2% target.
However, a rapid rate of interest rate hikes may push the Eurozone economy into recession. According to data from Eurostat, the Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 4.1% year-on-year in the second quarter, but economists expect a contraction in the coming quarters.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank claim that the European Central Bank is "struggling to catch up" with rising inflation and expect the eurozone economy to enter a mild recession next year. Goldman Sachs also predicts that the eurozone economy will begin to contract in the second half of 2023.
3. The Bank of Japan maintains an accommodative policy, and the depreciation of the yen has triggered inflationary pressures.
As major economies around the world raise interest rates to cope with inflationary pressures, the Bank of Japan insists on maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy stance, leading to a significant depreciation of the yen against the dollar, which has increased Japan's import costs and inflationary pressures.
Japan's core inflation rate reached 3% in September, the highest level since 2014, significantly exceeding the Bank of Japan's target of 2%. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that the rise in inflation is mainly due to the increase in import prices, and domestic demand has not shown a sustained increase. He emphasized that the central bank will maintain its accommodative policy until the inflation rate stabilizes around 2%.
However, the depreciation of the yen has raised concerns within Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that the government will take necessary measures to address the depreciation of the yen and will work to ensure that inflation does not spread.
Citibank analysts pointed out that the Bank of Japan's stance sharply contrasts with other major economies, which may exacerbate the depreciation pressure on the yen. They expect that by the end of 2023, the yen to dollar exchange rate may fall to 150.
Goldman Sachs believes that the Bank of Japan will ultimately have to tighten its policy to prevent inflation expectations from rising. The bank expects the Bank of Japan to start raising interest rates by the end of 2023.
Overall, the Bank of Japan's determination to maintain an accommodative policy is being questioned both domestically and internationally. If inflation continues to rise, the central bank may have to adjust its stance.
5. Regulation & Policy
1. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reshapes the cryptocurrency ETF approval process.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) has recently made significant adjustments to the approval process for cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds ( ETF ). This move aims to streamline the approval procedures and provide institutional and retail investors with more convenient access to cryptocurrency asset investment channels.
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated that the new approval standards will unify the review process for cryptocurrency ETFs with that of traditional ETFs, eliminating the special review requirements that previously applied to cryptocurrencies. As long as they meet the general requirements of securities law, cryptocurrency ETFs can be approved.
This transformation stems from the SEC's re-examination of cryptocurrency regulatory policies. Regulators have recognized that crypto assets have gradually integrated into the mainstream financial system and need to provide investors with compliant and transparent investment channels. At the same time, the SEC also hopes to promote the standardization of the cryptocurrency market through ETFs.
Market participants generally welcome this. Cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase and Bitcoin Base plan to apply for cryptocurrency ETFs as soon as possible under the new policy. Analysts expect that the first cryptocurrency ETF is likely to be approved by the end of this year or early next year, which will clear the obstacles for institutional funds to enter the crypto market.
However, some experts have expressed concerns about the new policies. Former SEC commissioner Robert Jackson pointed out that cryptocurrency ETFs face risks of manipulation and money laundering, and the SEC needs to establish strict review standards to prevent related illegal activities.
2. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission accelerates the promotion of the virtual asset regulatory framework.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission ( is accelerating the construction of the regulatory framework for virtual assets. The chairman of the Securities and Futures Commission, Leung Tin-leung, revealed at the latest press conference that the Commission has received stablecoin issuer license applications from 36 institutions and expects to complete the first batch of approvals by the end of this year.
Le Tianliang stated that the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission will develop a comprehensive regulatory framework for virtual assets based on the existing Securities Law. In addition to stablecoin issuers, the Commission will also regulate virtual asset trading platforms, wallets, and other related businesses.
The goal of this regulatory framework is to create a favorable environment for virtual asset innovation in Hong Kong while ensuring that investors are adequately protected. Lei Tianliang emphasized that the Securities and Futures Commission will adhere to the principle of "licensing first, regulation later" to provide clear guidance for industry development.
Li Ka-kit, Vice President of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, believes that the regulatory framework of the Securities and Futures Commission will lay the foundation for Hong Kong to become the virtual asset center of Asia. He stated that Hong Kong will leverage its existing financial infrastructure advantages to attract more virtual asset enterprises to establish themselves in the region.
However, some industry insiders have expressed concerns about the regulatory details. Chen Shouren, the chairman of the Hong Kong Cryptocurrency Association, called for the Securities and Futures Commission to maintain close communication with the industry and develop practical regulatory measures to avoid excessive regulation that hinders industry development.
) 3. Progress of the EU Digital Asset Regulatory Framework MICA
The European Commission is accelerating the legislative process for the regulatory framework for digital assets "Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation" ###MICA(. The aim of this legislation is to establish unified cryptocurrency regulatory standards for EU member states, ensuring investor protection and financial stability.
According to the latest news, the MICA bill has passed the review of the European Parliament and Council and is expected to come into effect in 2024. The bill covers multiple areas including cryptocurrency issuance, trading, custody, and also provides regulations for new digital assets such as stablecoins and NFTs.
The European Commissioner for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, Mairead McGuinness, stated that MICA will provide a unified set of rules for the development of digital finance in the EU, promoting innovation and protecting consumer rights. She emphasized that MICA is not intended to restrict cryptocurrencies, but to regulate and oversee this emerging industry.
Cryptocurrency exchanges and institutions like Coinbase welcome MICA. Thomas Chessman, Coinbase's Head of European Affairs, believes that a unified regulatory framework will facilitate the operation of crypto businesses across the European Union.
However, some members of the cryptocurrency community have doubts about MICA. Stani Kulechov, the founder of the decentralized finance ) DeFi ( platform Aave, is concerned that MICA may limit the development space for innovative models such as DeFi. He calls on regulators to fully listen to industry opinions when formulating detailed rules.
Overall, MICA is seen as a milestone in the EU's regulation of digital assets. The formulation of its final rules will determine the future development direction of the EU cryptocurrency industry.
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10.2 AI Daily Report: The Era of AI Has Arrived: OpenAI and JPMorgan Chase Ignite a Wave of Technological Revolution
1. Headline
1. OpenAI surprises with the launch of the AI short video application Sora App
OpenAI officially released Sora 2 today. This next-generation audiovisual generation model is not only more realistic and physically accurate, but it can also achieve synchronized dialogue and sound effects, with greater controllability. The newly launched Sora App allows users to create, remake, and interact with generated videos, even transforming themselves into the main character of the films.
The video generation technology has made significant breakthroughs. The Sora series was first released in February 2024, showcasing for the first time the capabilities of video generation models in aspects such as object persistence and scene continuity. Building on this, Sora 2 further enhances the ability to handle complex scenarios that previous models struggled to generate accurately, such as Olympic-level gymnastics movements, backflips on a stand-up paddleboard, and even completing a 3.5 rotation jump while balancing a cat on one's head during figure skating. Sora 2 offers a more realistic physical simulation, addressing issues where past video models often violated the laws of physics.
The launch of the Sora App will further unleash the creative potential of video generation. Users can not only create videos on their own but also interact with the generated content, such as through dialogue, adding sound effects, etc. In addition, the app also supports users uploading selfies to digitize themselves as the main character in the video. This immersive experience will bring new possibilities for film and television content creation.
The breakthrough in video generation technology will have a profound impact on content creation, virtual reality, and other fields. In the future, film production can leverage AI to reduce costs; fields like gaming and social media can also incorporate more immersive virtual scenes. At the same time, legal issues such as copyright ownership and intellectual property protection for AI-generated content will become a focal point of widespread societal concern.
2. JPMorgan Chase launches the world's first AI-driven super bank, Agentic AI.
JPMorgan Chase is transforming into an AI-driven enterprise, showcasing a robot that can create investment banking presentations in 30 seconds. This innovation is part of their LM suite, aimed at increasing efficiency and reducing staff while maintaining a competitive edge in the financial sector.
Agentic AI is referred to as the world's first "super bank" driven by artificial intelligence. It integrates advanced technologies such as large language models and conversational AI, enabling it to autonomously handle various business processes of investment banking, including report generation, data analysis, and communication with clients. This system not only saves a significant amount of manpower but also ensures consistency in service quality.
JPMorgan stated that Agentic AI is just the beginning of the bank's transformation towards AI. In the future, they will deploy AI systems in more areas of business to improve operational efficiency. Analysts point out that this approach will have a profound impact on the traditional financial industry. On one hand, the involvement of AI will significantly reduce banks' labor costs; on the other hand, it will intensify homogeneous competition in the banking industry, and service differentiation may become the new focus of competition in the industry.
At the same time, the safety and controllability issues of AI systems will receive widespread attention from all sectors of society. Once a loss of control occurs, it will pose a huge risk to bank operations and customer rights. Therefore, ensuring the safety and reliability of AI systems while improving efficiency will be a major challenge faced by the banking industry's AI transformation.
3. The US government shuts down again, gold and Bitcoin react strongly.
Due to Congress's failure to reach an agreement on federal government funding, the U.S. government shut down at midnight local time on October 1. This marks the second government shutdown in the U.S. since 2018.
Gold prices and Bitcoin prices reacted significantly after the news was announced. New York futures gold briefly broke through $3900 per ounce, setting a new historical high. Bitcoin also rose more than 3% in a short period. Analysts believe this reflects investors' concerns about the economic uncertainty brought about by the government shutdown.
The government shutdown will directly affect the salary payments of approximately 800,000 federal employees and may lead to disruptions in some government services. If the duration is too long, it could also impact the release of economic data and business operations.
At the same time, the government shutdown will exacerbate the opposition between the two parties on issues such as fiscal deficits and the debt ceiling. The Republican Party hopes to cut government spending, while the Democratic Party advocates for maintaining current spending levels. If both sides cannot reach a compromise, the government shutdown may last for a while.
Analysts point out that while the government shutdown has limited short-term economic impact, if it lasts too long, it will exacerbate the market's risk aversion sentiment, thereby affecting the operation of financial markets. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor the subsequent political game dynamics.
4. The Ethereum ecosystem is under scrutiny, with continuous capital outflows triggering a crisis of trust.
Ethereum is undergoing an unprecedented wave of skepticism. Since the launch of the ETF, there has been a net sell-off/capital outflow of over $1.2 billion, leading to a significant trust crisis among Ethereum's core researchers/EF, the developer community, Consensys-related business entities, and external investors.
Vitalik needs to better guide different participants in terms of direction and goals, as Ethereum has already become a very large decentralized business entity in the entire cryptocurrency market and even in the traditional market. There has never been such a business entity in history, and the challenges for the entire Ethereum community and Vitalik will only become more severe, reaching a point where one must break in order to establish anew.
The most discussed topic in this 2049 discussion turned out to be the Ton ecosystem. Currently, Western funds are generally not optimistic about Ton and Web2 platforms; however, they have not answered the question of whether to invest or not.
The Ethereum ecosystem is facing unprecedented challenges. Continuous outflows of funds and a lack of confidence among participants regarding its future development will severely impact the progress of Ethereum. Vitalik Buterin needs to provide a clear direction for the entire ecosystem and rebuild the confidence of participants.
At the same time, other public chain ecosystems such as Ton are emerging, attracting the attention of some investors. In the future, whether Ethereum can maintain its leading position largely depends on its ability to resolve the current trust crisis and launch attractive innovative applications.
5. The crypto gaming sector is in trouble, and the industry is calling for innovative breakthroughs.
The gaming track has become exceptionally difficult, with all participants losing confidence. Crypto games are forcing participants to leave or innovate with more challenging products and fun games. Of course, we are still looking for teams that have faith in the games and consensus in the Crypto market.
Here I advocate for adjustments to the practicality and unlocking terms of tokens. The current unlocking mechanism and practicality have significant issues, and I call for broader discussions and research within the industry. The traditional IPO investment lock-up period only requires 6 months to a year, while the liquidity lock-up for investments in ultra-early-stage seed round companies in crypto astonishingly reaches 3 to 4 years.
The crypto gaming sector is facing numerous challenges. Participants have lost confidence in the prospects of this sector, and the quality and innovation of the games are lacking, leading to user attrition. Meanwhile, there are many issues with the token economic model, including prolonged lock-up periods affecting liquidity and low practicality.
The industry is calling for innovative adjustments to the token economic model, shortening the lock-up period and improving the utility of tokens to attract more users to participate. At the same time, developing more creative and appealing gaming products is also key to revitalizing this sector.
Overall, the crypto gaming sector is in a downturn and requires collective efforts from the entire industry to break through the bottlenecks, drive innovation, and rebuild confidence for sustainable development. The power of individual companies or teams is limited, and there is a need to strengthen internal communication and cooperation within the industry.
2. Industry News
1. Bitcoin returns to the $118,000 mark, triggering bullish sentiment in the market.
The price of Bitcoin broke through the $118,000 mark on October 2, with a daily increase of 4.47%. This rebound is seen as a signal of recovery in the cryptocurrency market. Analysts expect that if Bitcoin can maintain above this level, it may trigger a new bull market.
The rise of Bitcoin is mainly driven by several factors. First, the ongoing government shutdown in the United States has intensified uncertainty in traditional financial markets, leading investors to turn to safe-haven assets like Bitcoin. Second, the significant activity of large whale addresses on cryptocurrency exchanges has also injected liquidity into the market. Additionally, the accelerated approval process for cryptocurrency ETFs by regulatory agencies has boosted the confidence of institutional investors.
Analysts point out that after Bitcoin broke through the $118,000 mark, the next key resistance level is $120,000. If it can break through this threshold, it will pave the way for Bitcoin's price to reach $130,000. However, some analysts also remind that Bitcoin faces the risk of profit-taking at high levels, and investors should operate cautiously.
Overall, the rebound of Bitcoin has sparked bullish sentiment in the market, but there is still uncertainty regarding future trends. Investors need to closely monitor the fundamentals and regulatory developments, and carefully seize investment opportunities.
2. Ethereum faces capital outflow, ETF approval may trigger a new round of selling
Despite the overall recovery trend in the cryptocurrency market, Ethereum has shown signs of capital outflow. Data indicates that $1.6 billion in stablecoins have flowed out of the Ethereum network in the past 24 hours, which may put pressure on Ethereum's price.
Analysts believe that the large outflow of stablecoins reflects a decline in investor confidence in Ethereum. On one hand, the congestion of the Ethereum network and high gas fees have been pain points criticized by users; on the other hand, some popular projects within the Ethereum ecosystem have also recently experienced a loss of users.
In addition, news about regulatory agencies soon approving the first Ethereum ETF may also exacerbate capital outflows. Once the ETF is approved, institutional investors may choose to invest through the ETF rather than holding Ether directly, triggering a new wave of sell-offs.
However, some analysts are optimistic about this. They believe that the outflow of stablecoins may just be a temporary adjustment, reflecting a reallocation of funds within the Ethereum ecosystem. With the continuous advancement of Ethereum 2.0 and the incubation of more innovative applications, the long-term prospects of Ethereum still look promising.
Overall, Ethereum faces both challenges and opportunities. Investors need to closely monitor regulatory trends and technological advancements, and cautiously seize investment opportunities.
3. Solana price breaks through $220, ETF approval expectations boost market confidence
The Solana ecosystem has recently performed brilliantly, with its token SOL price breaking through the $220 mark on October 2. Analysts believe this is mainly driven by optimistic expectations for the approval of the Solana ETF.
It is reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is about to make a ruling on the Solana ETF application. Once approved, it will benefit institutional investors' participation in the Solana market, thereby injecting new momentum into the rise of SOL prices. In addition, the continuously emerging innovative applications within the Solana ecosystem also add confidence to its long-term development.
However, some analysts are cautious about the continued rise in SOL prices. They point out that the Solana ecosystem has recently encountered multiple security incidents, which could affect investor confidence. At the same time, the uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market remains high, and the SOL price faces the risk of profit-taking.
Overall, the development prospects of the Solana ecosystem are broad, but potential risks must also be heeded. Investors need to comprehensively assess the fundamentals of Solana and the regulatory landscape, and cautiously seize investment opportunities.
4. Altcoins are performing remarkably, reflecting investors' enthusiasm for innovative projects.
Against the backdrop of a general recovery in the cryptocurrency market, some altcoin projects have stood out remarkably. Data shows that popular altcoins like Pudgy Penguins saw double-digit gains on October 1, significantly outperforming mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Analysts believe that the strong performance of altcoin projects reflects investors' enthusiasm for innovative projects. Compared to mature projects like Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoins often have greater room for development and imagination, attracting a considerable amount of speculative funds.
However, some analysts express concerns about the bubble of altcoin projects. They point out that many altcoin projects lack practical application scenarios, and their price increases are primarily driven by speculative trading. Once market sentiment changes, these projects may face the risk of a sharp decline.
Overall, the performance of altcoin projects is worth paying attention to, but investors should also remain rational. While embracing innovation, they should carefully assess the actual value of the projects to avoid blindly following trends.
5. XRP price stabilizes above 3 dollars, regulatory expectations may trigger a new round of increases.
Recently, the price of XRP has stabilized above $3 and shows signs of further increase. Analysts believe this is mainly driven by regulatory expectations.
It is reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is about to make a ruling on the securities nature of XRP. If it rules that XRP is not a security, it will be beneficial for the development of XRP in the U.S., thereby injecting new momentum for its price increase. In addition, the approval of XRP ETFs by regulatory agencies may also drive institutional funds to flow in.
However, some analysts remain cautious about the continued rise in XRP prices. They point out that XRP has faced the shadow of regulatory uncertainty in recent years, and even if it gains approval from regulators, it is difficult to completely reverse the negative market sentiment. At the same time, the relative lag in XRP's technological innovation may also restrict its long-term development.
Overall, the regulatory outlook for XRP may see a turnaround, but its long-term development still requires time. Investors need to comprehensively assess the fundamentals and regulatory situation of XRP and cautiously seize investment opportunities.
6. Shiba Inu coin is in a state of fluctuation, and the key support level may determine the next price movement.
Shiba Inu Coin ( SHIB ) has recently shown lackluster performance, hovering around the key support level of $0.00001150. Analysts believe that whether this support level is broken or not may determine the future trend of SHIB.
If SHIB can gain strong support at the position of $0.00001150, it will provide an opportunity for its price to stop falling and stabilize. At that time, SHIB may look for resistance levels in the range of $0.00001940 to $0.00002400.
On the contrary, if SHIB falls below the key support level of $0.00001150, it may trigger further declines. Analysts expect that in this case, the next support level for SHIB could be around $0.00001000.
The key factors affecting the SHIB trend include changes in the supply on exchanges, the activity of whale addresses, and the progress of the Shiba Inu team's promotion of the Shibarium upgrade. Overall, SHIB will continue to maintain a oscillating pattern in the short term, and investors need to closely monitor its fundamental changes.
7. Privacy coins collectively strengthened, reflecting the market's emphasis on privacy protection.
On October 2nd, privacy coins performed impressively, with several tokens experiencing double-digit increases. Among them, ZEC had a daily increase of as much as 57.2%, while DASH and XVG saw increases of 42.9% and 25.9%, respectively.
Analysts believe that the collective strength of privacy coins reflects the market's increasing emphasis on privacy protection. As regulatory agencies intensify their scrutiny of cryptocurrencies, the demand for privacy protection among investors is also growing day by day.
However, some analysts are cautious about the long-term development prospects of privacy coins. They point out that privacy coins are often vulnerable to misuse by criminals, which could attract significant attention from regulatory agencies. At the same time, the relatively lagging technological innovation of privacy coins may also restrict their long-term development.
Overall, the short-term performance of privacy coins is worth paying attention to, but investors should also be wary of potential risks. While pursuing privacy protection, one should also carefully assess the compliance and technical strength of the projects.
8. The Aptos ecosystem is developing rapidly, and the token price may fluctuate in the short term.
Aptos is a recently highly regarded emerging public chain project, and its ecosystem is developing rapidly. According to data, the price of the Aptos token APT hovered around $4.55 on October 2, increasing by 8.2% during the day.
Analysts believe that the rapid development of the Aptos ecosystem is mainly due to its technological innovations and financial strength. As an emerging public chain project, Aptos has made several innovative attempts in areas such as consensus mechanisms and scalability, attracting considerable attention from investors.
However, some analysts remain cautious about the continued rise in APT prices. They point out that the Aptos ecosystem is currently still in its early stages of development and faces many uncertainties. At the same time, APT prices may experience fluctuations in the short term due to profit-taking.
Overall, the Aptos ecosystem
3. Project News
1. Announce major protocol upgrade, launching millisecond-level underlying chain
is an on-chain derivatives protocol that has accumulated over $300 billion in trading volume since its launch in 2021. Recently, the protocol announced a major upgrade that will introduce a new high-performance underlying chain, achieving millisecond-level order execution and institutional-level liquidity depth.
This upgrade will be powered by a brand new modular engine, achieving order execution speeds in the single-digit millisecond range while maintaining complete on-chain transparency, and integrating institutional-level liquidity to support large transactions. This innovation is expected to provide traders with a top-tier trading experience while upholding the open spirit of DeFi.
It is emphasized that this upgrade aims to implement the core concept of "Trader First, Zero Compromise." The protocol will start internal testing in October, working hand in hand with core partners to refine the infrastructure and prepare for the full launch. The community will be at the heart of the upgrade process, and a series of activities will be launched in the future to invite traders to participate in the construction.
Analysts believe that the upgrade of this protocol is expected to further enhance the competitiveness of on-chain derivatives. Millisecond-level execution speed and institutional-grade liquidity depth will attract more institutional participants, driving the development of the DeFi derivatives market. At the same time, the fully on-chain transparency characteristic is also beneficial for increasing user trust.
2. The Sui ecosystem welcomes USDC stablecoin support, promoting ecological development.
Sui is an emerging blockchain network created by former Meta employees. Recently, the Sui ecosystem has received major good news, as Grayscale Trust announced that it will launch the USDC stablecoin on Sui. In addition, Sui and its listed company SUI Group will also launch the suiUSDe stablecoin.
The addition of stablecoins will bring liquidity support to the Sui ecosystem, which is beneficial for attracting more DeFi applications and users. Grayscale Trust is one of the largest institutional investors in the cryptocurrency industry, and its USDC has a wide influence in the industry. Meanwhile, suiUSDe is supported by the well-known institution BlackRock.
In addition to stablecoin support, the Sui ecosystem has made other noteworthy progress recently. Sui set up the largest game booth at the KBW conference in South Korea, showcasing its ambitions in the GameFi sector. Furthermore, Sui has launched innovative products such as SuiPlay.
Analysts believe that the addition of stablecoins signifies that the Sui ecosystem has initially established the necessary infrastructure for DeFi development. In the future, Sui is expected to become another important public blockchain following Ethereum and Solana. However, Sui currently has relatively few tradable assets and a limited number of star projects, and it still needs to further incubate ecosystem projects.
3. Consensys founder elaborates on the key points of Ethereum's development
At the Token2049 conference in Singapore, Consensys founder Joseph Lubin outlined three key areas of development for the future of Ethereum: scalability, optimizing user experience, and foundational research and development.
Regarding scalability, Lubin stated that Ethereum will achieve "million-level TPS" to support mainstream applications by optimizing the mainnet Gas limit and utilizing Layer 2. In terms of user experience, the focus will be on addressing pain points such as the complexity of private key management and fluctuations in Gas fees. Basic research and development will emphasize zero-knowledge proof technology to ensure privacy and security.
In addition, Lubin also mentioned the potential for the fusion of AI and blockchain. He believes that Ethereum smart contracts can address the pain point of "unverifiable" AI inference results, while AI can optimize Ethereum gas fee adjustments and node selection. He urged developers to pay attention to the needs of the real economy and emphasized that Ethereum needs to establish a trust system without intermediaries through vertical and horizontal decentralization.
Analysts say that the three key points articulated by Lubin hit the pain points and needs of Ethereum's current development. Scaling and optimizing user experience will enhance Ethereum's performance and usability, while foundational research will help improve security and privacy protection. The integration with AI will also bring new development opportunities for Ethereum.
4. Kalshi plans to launch mainstream crypto applications
Kalshi is a regulated prediction market platform in the United States. Recently, John Wang, the head of cryptocurrency at Kalshi, revealed that Kalshi will launch on "every major cryptocurrency application and exchange" within the next 12 months.
Kalshi is building a utility-focused diversified builder ecosystem that includes real-time event data being pushed to the blockchain for developers to use. Other efforts also include building complex data dashboards, AI agents, and new information arbitrage platforms.
Last month, Kalshi launched an ecosystem support network in collaboration with Solana and Base, providing special funding for off-chain and on-chain innovators. This indicates that Kalshi is increasing its investment in the blockchain ecosystem.
Analysts believe that Kalshi's move will further drive the development of prediction markets in the crypto space. Prediction markets are seen as an important DeFi innovation that can provide an efficient price discovery mechanism for various events. As a regulated platform, Kalshi's entry into mainstream crypto applications will help enhance user trust.
However, Kalshi is still a newcomer in the blockchain field, and whether its ecosystem development can progress as scheduled remains to be seen. Nevertheless, Kalshi's entry will bring new vitality to the crypto prediction market.
4. Economic Dynamics
1. The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is increasing, casting a shadow over the economic outlook.
The current U.S. economy is maintaining a moderate growth trend overall, with a year-on-year annualized growth of 2.1% in GDP for the second quarter, slightly below expectations. The inflation rate has receded but remains high, with the core PCE price index rising 4.9% year-on-year in August. The job market remains strong, with an unemployment rate of 3.7% in August and an increase of 315,000 in the employed population.
However, the U.S. government is facing the risk of a shutdown, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. Congress has failed to reach an agreement on the fiscal year 2024 spending bill, resulting in government funding running out on October 1. If the shutdown lasts too long, it will freeze certain government expenditures, affect the operation of public services, and may hinder economic growth.
Goldman Sachs analysts stated that if the government shutdown lasts for a week, it could drag down GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points for the quarter. S&P Global Ratings warned that a prolonged shutdown would exacerbate economic uncertainty and could trigger turmoil in the financial markets.
American economist Mark Zandi believes that the risk of a government shutdown has heightened concerns about an economic slowdown. He pointed out that although the job market remains strong, consumer confidence is declining, corporate investment is weak, and trade disputes are casting a shadow over economic growth.
Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Cohen emphasized that a government shutdown could affect the release of economic data, increasing the uncertainty of monetary policy decisions. He urged Congress to resolve their differences as soon as possible to avoid further impacts on the economy.
2. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points, raising concerns over high inflation in the Eurozone.
The European Central Bank recently raised interest rates by 75 basis points, increasing the benchmark rate to 3.25%, the highest level since the Eurozone was established in 1999. This move aims to curb rising inflation, as the inflation rate in the Eurozone reached 10% in September, far exceeding the ECB's target of 2%.
High inflation is eroding the purchasing power of European consumers and increasing cost pressures on businesses. Soaring energy prices and supply chain disruptions are the primary causes of rising inflation. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated this situation, with the EU imposing sanctions on Russian energy, leading to skyrocketing prices for gas and electricity.
European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that the inflation outlook is "extremely uncertain" and that there may be further interest rate hikes in the future. She emphasized that the central bank is determined to firmly re-anchor the inflation rate at the 2% target.
However, a rapid rate of interest rate hikes may push the Eurozone economy into recession. According to data from Eurostat, the Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 4.1% year-on-year in the second quarter, but economists expect a contraction in the coming quarters.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank claim that the European Central Bank is "struggling to catch up" with rising inflation and expect the eurozone economy to enter a mild recession next year. Goldman Sachs also predicts that the eurozone economy will begin to contract in the second half of 2023.
3. The Bank of Japan maintains an accommodative policy, and the depreciation of the yen has triggered inflationary pressures.
As major economies around the world raise interest rates to cope with inflationary pressures, the Bank of Japan insists on maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy stance, leading to a significant depreciation of the yen against the dollar, which has increased Japan's import costs and inflationary pressures.
Japan's core inflation rate reached 3% in September, the highest level since 2014, significantly exceeding the Bank of Japan's target of 2%. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that the rise in inflation is mainly due to the increase in import prices, and domestic demand has not shown a sustained increase. He emphasized that the central bank will maintain its accommodative policy until the inflation rate stabilizes around 2%.
However, the depreciation of the yen has raised concerns within Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that the government will take necessary measures to address the depreciation of the yen and will work to ensure that inflation does not spread.
Citibank analysts pointed out that the Bank of Japan's stance sharply contrasts with other major economies, which may exacerbate the depreciation pressure on the yen. They expect that by the end of 2023, the yen to dollar exchange rate may fall to 150.
Goldman Sachs believes that the Bank of Japan will ultimately have to tighten its policy to prevent inflation expectations from rising. The bank expects the Bank of Japan to start raising interest rates by the end of 2023.
Overall, the Bank of Japan's determination to maintain an accommodative policy is being questioned both domestically and internationally. If inflation continues to rise, the central bank may have to adjust its stance.
5. Regulation & Policy
1. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reshapes the cryptocurrency ETF approval process.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) has recently made significant adjustments to the approval process for cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds ( ETF ). This move aims to streamline the approval procedures and provide institutional and retail investors with more convenient access to cryptocurrency asset investment channels.
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated that the new approval standards will unify the review process for cryptocurrency ETFs with that of traditional ETFs, eliminating the special review requirements that previously applied to cryptocurrencies. As long as they meet the general requirements of securities law, cryptocurrency ETFs can be approved.
This transformation stems from the SEC's re-examination of cryptocurrency regulatory policies. Regulators have recognized that crypto assets have gradually integrated into the mainstream financial system and need to provide investors with compliant and transparent investment channels. At the same time, the SEC also hopes to promote the standardization of the cryptocurrency market through ETFs.
Market participants generally welcome this. Cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase and Bitcoin Base plan to apply for cryptocurrency ETFs as soon as possible under the new policy. Analysts expect that the first cryptocurrency ETF is likely to be approved by the end of this year or early next year, which will clear the obstacles for institutional funds to enter the crypto market.
However, some experts have expressed concerns about the new policies. Former SEC commissioner Robert Jackson pointed out that cryptocurrency ETFs face risks of manipulation and money laundering, and the SEC needs to establish strict review standards to prevent related illegal activities.
2. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission accelerates the promotion of the virtual asset regulatory framework.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission ( is accelerating the construction of the regulatory framework for virtual assets. The chairman of the Securities and Futures Commission, Leung Tin-leung, revealed at the latest press conference that the Commission has received stablecoin issuer license applications from 36 institutions and expects to complete the first batch of approvals by the end of this year.
Le Tianliang stated that the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission will develop a comprehensive regulatory framework for virtual assets based on the existing Securities Law. In addition to stablecoin issuers, the Commission will also regulate virtual asset trading platforms, wallets, and other related businesses.
The goal of this regulatory framework is to create a favorable environment for virtual asset innovation in Hong Kong while ensuring that investors are adequately protected. Lei Tianliang emphasized that the Securities and Futures Commission will adhere to the principle of "licensing first, regulation later" to provide clear guidance for industry development.
Li Ka-kit, Vice President of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, believes that the regulatory framework of the Securities and Futures Commission will lay the foundation for Hong Kong to become the virtual asset center of Asia. He stated that Hong Kong will leverage its existing financial infrastructure advantages to attract more virtual asset enterprises to establish themselves in the region.
However, some industry insiders have expressed concerns about the regulatory details. Chen Shouren, the chairman of the Hong Kong Cryptocurrency Association, called for the Securities and Futures Commission to maintain close communication with the industry and develop practical regulatory measures to avoid excessive regulation that hinders industry development.
) 3. Progress of the EU Digital Asset Regulatory Framework MICA
The European Commission is accelerating the legislative process for the regulatory framework for digital assets "Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation" ###MICA(. The aim of this legislation is to establish unified cryptocurrency regulatory standards for EU member states, ensuring investor protection and financial stability.
According to the latest news, the MICA bill has passed the review of the European Parliament and Council and is expected to come into effect in 2024. The bill covers multiple areas including cryptocurrency issuance, trading, custody, and also provides regulations for new digital assets such as stablecoins and NFTs.
The European Commissioner for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, Mairead McGuinness, stated that MICA will provide a unified set of rules for the development of digital finance in the EU, promoting innovation and protecting consumer rights. She emphasized that MICA is not intended to restrict cryptocurrencies, but to regulate and oversee this emerging industry.
Cryptocurrency exchanges and institutions like Coinbase welcome MICA. Thomas Chessman, Coinbase's Head of European Affairs, believes that a unified regulatory framework will facilitate the operation of crypto businesses across the European Union.
However, some members of the cryptocurrency community have doubts about MICA. Stani Kulechov, the founder of the decentralized finance ) DeFi ( platform Aave, is concerned that MICA may limit the development space for innovative models such as DeFi. He calls on regulators to fully listen to industry opinions when formulating detailed rules.
Overall, MICA is seen as a milestone in the EU's regulation of digital assets. The formulation of its final rules will determine the future development direction of the EU cryptocurrency industry.