QCP: The current U.S. economy is closer to the late cycle rather than a recession, and this week's data will determine the future direction of Bitcoin.

BlockBeats news, on November 19, QCP released its daily market observation stating that this week, Bitcoin continued to fall, at one point dropping below the key $90,000 level, due to tightening market expectations for interest rate hikes and the continuous outflow of ETFs, which dampened market sentiment. The thin liquidity further amplified this wave of decline, showing that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly sensitive to changes in the macro environment. This pullback occurred against the backdrop of rapidly re-priced expectations for the Fed — the market adjusted from almost certain December rate cuts to a roughly balanced probability. This puts pressure on assets sensitive to interest rates like Bitcoin, while the stock market remained relatively stable due to robust corporate earnings, particularly the strong profits and record AI-driven capital expenditures reported by large tech companies (hyperscalers). With the U.S. government reopening, official data is being released in succession, providing the market with necessary insights into economic fundamentals. This week, the market is highly focused on labor market data and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), which has now incorporated the latest job vacancy data. This information will help determine whether labor tightness or inflation will dominate the Fed's policy response in 2026. Beneath the surface, the U.S. economy still shows K-shaped divergence: spending among high-income households remains resilient, while low-income groups face increasing pressures. Fed Chair Powell reiterated a cautious stance, stating that a December rate cut is 'not certain.' Overall, the current economic conditions are closer to the late cycle rather than a recession period. Although fiscal constraints and labor market divergence pose ongoing risks, the resilience of household balance sheets and corporate capital spending still provide a buffer against downturns. This week's data will determine whether Bitcoin's pullback is a temporary position adjustment or the beginning of a broader decline in risk appetite.