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Market Analysis: It is expected that the Fed will maintain the Intrerest Rate in July and start cutting interest rates in September.
Golden Ten Data, July 25th News, policymakers at the Federal Reserve are expected to keep the Intrerest Rate at a level of 5.25% to 5.50% next week, and will not begin to cut interest rates by 25 basis points until September. The latest data shows that the US economy has regained momentum in the last quarter. Before the data was released, traders expected the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week to be about 9%. However, the government report showed that the economy rose by 2.8% in the last quarter, faster than expected and twice the growth rate in the first quarter of this year, which reduced the probability to below 7%. Analyst Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics Institute wrote that the economic acceleration "should help alleviate concerns about whether the economy can continue to expand and quell rumors of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July." Traders continue to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December, while also reducing their bets on further rate cuts. Previously, traders believed that the probability of a rate cut by more than 25 basis points before the September meeting was about 21%, but it has now dropped to around 15%.