Is the Q4 Bitcoin peak the biggest misjudgment of 2025? Data reveals the market structure has already changed

Bitcoin prices continue to hover around the $90,000 mark, with short-term bulls and bears engaging in repeated battles. Previously, some analysts’ “Q4 peak” predictions based on technical charts have been invalidated by the price action. The market’s long-term valuation logic and cycle perception for Bitcoin are being recalibrated, as crypto assets enter a new phase of consensus reshaping.

Market Controversy: The Clash Between Cycle Predictions and Structural Changes

The prediction that Bitcoin will reach a cycle peak in Q4 2025 once sparked widespread discussion. This view is not unfounded but is based on historical halving cycle patterns.

According to traditional four-year halving cycle logic, Bitcoin often experiences significant rallies within 12 to 18 months after halving. The last halving occurred in April 2024, implying that the end of 2025 could indeed be a potential market top. However, markets always create surprises within seemingly clear patterns. Latest on-chain data from Glassnode shows that after a large-scale year-end adjustment, Bitcoin is entering 2026 with a clearer market structure. Profit-taking pressure has eased, risk appetite is cautiously recovering, and after outflows at the end of 2025, US spot ETF capital flows are beginning to reappear.

In fact, when we look at a longer time horizon, some analysts have long held different views. Tiger Research’s report in 2025, based on institutional continuous buying amid volatility and Fed rate cuts, raised Bitcoin’s target price in Q4 2025 to $200,000. These two contrasting forecasts reflect not only price divergence but also fundamentally different understandings of market logic.

Market Status: A Peculiar Combination of High Volatility and Strong Consensus

Entering early 2026, the Bitcoin market shows a “heightened volatility but still stable consensus” characteristic. According to the latest data from Gate, BTC is currently trading around $91,934, up 0.87% in 24 hours, with an intraday high of $92,317 and a low of $90,129, maintaining effective support at the $91,000 level. Despite some correction over the past 7 days, Bitcoin’s core asset status and market attention remain solid amid a total market cap of approximately $1.83 trillion and circulating supply close to 20 million coins.

While prices still fluctuate at high levels, market participants seem to have formed a certain consensus—simple cycle theories are failing.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani recently stated that Bitcoin will bottom out and rebound in 2026, with a target of $150,000, and possibly reaching $200,000 in 2027. This sharply contrasts with traditional four-year cycle peak predictions, suggesting that this cycle’s duration may extend beyond historical patterns.

From a technical perspective, the current market presents a complex picture. On one hand, Bitcoin’s 1-hour chart shows a rally followed by a pullback, with short-term attempts to recover toward MA5 and MA10, but overall still below MA30, indicating a weak rebound structure. On the other hand, market sentiment appears to be warming, gradually recovering from the panic at the end of 2025.

HODL Is Dead? The Transformation of Crypto Investment Culture

“Long-term holding is dead” has become one of the most shocking declarations in the 2025 crypto market. Behind this judgment lies a fundamental shift in market behavior patterns.

Glassnode’s on-chain data reveals an important phenomenon: by the end of December 2025, Bitcoin’s realized profits sharply declined to $1.838 billion per day, down from over $10 billion daily during Q4. More notably, the slowdown in realized gains among long-term holders indicates the exhaustion of selling pressure that had been suppressing prices in the previous quarter.

Traditionally, HODL (long-term holding) culture has been regarded as the core investment philosophy in crypto, with many early investors achieving remarkable returns through steadfast holding. However, market behavior in 2025 suggests this strategy is being replaced by more flexible, short-term trading approaches. Capital flow patterns also validate this shift. Corporate treasury needs continue to provide price support but show clear phase-specific characteristics rather than structural persistence.

Participants now prefer large-scale net inflows during local corrections and consolidations, indicating a price-sensitive, opportunistic strategy. The driving forces behind this change include increased market maturity, more institutional participation, diversified trading tools, and macroeconomic uncertainties, all prompting investors to adopt more flexible tactics.

Spot ETFs: Market Stabilizers Rather Than Limiters

The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs was widely seen as the biggest catalyst in this cycle, but their actual impact may differ from initial expectations. Glassnode data shows that after a period of net outflows, US spot ETF capital flows have recently begun to show early signs of institutional re-engagement. This change coincides with price stabilization and a rebound from the low $80,000 range.

From a macro perspective, ETF products are experiencing a phase of rapid expansion and consolidation simultaneously. Bitwise predicts over 100 crypto-related ETFs will launch by 2026. Senior ETF analyst James Seffert of Bloomberg supports this forecast but also warns, “We will witness a large number of ETFs being liquidated.” This pattern of “explosive growth coupled with rapid淘汰” will define the next stage of crypto ETF development.

At the infrastructure level, a key concentration risk exists: custody is highly centralized among a few institutions. Data shows Coinbase holds the majority of assets for most crypto ETFs, accounting for up to 85% of the global Bitcoin ETF market. This concentration reflects network effects but could also pose systemic risks.

The surge in ETFs will reinforce the market dominance of leading assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. However, for many smaller cryptocurrencies, this could be a severe “stress test.” Due to the lack of sufficiently deep derivatives markets, these assets may struggle to hedge redemption flows without impacting prices.

Future Outlook: New Narratives and Structural Changes

As the market enters 2026, several key trends are shaping the future landscape of crypto assets. First, the four-year halving cycle logic for Bitcoin is being fundamentally questioned. With spot ETF approvals, increased adoption by sovereign nations, and ongoing corporate treasury allocations, Bitcoin’s buying logic is shifting from “cyclical speculation” to “strategic asset allocation.” Continued institutional inflows could smooth out volatility caused by halving, enabling Bitcoin to break traditional patterns and exhibit “slow bull” and “long bull” characteristics.

The stablecoin market is also undergoing profound transformation. Its market cap is expected to surpass $500 billion in 2026, up from the current $308 billion. Yield-bearing features and regulatory barriers will become key factors in market segmentation. In an environment of rising US Treasury yields, stablecoins that cannot offer risk-free returns will gradually lose appeal.

The intersection of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies is shifting from hype to practical payment applications. AI agents cannot open traditional bank accounts, making stablecoins like USDC their natural funding medium. By 2026, automated high-frequency micro-payments could become a significant driver of on-chain activity, fueling exponential growth in daily transaction volume and value.

The narrative around privacy technology is also evolving. It is no longer seen as an adversary of regulation but as a necessity for traditional financial institutions entering the space. Large financial institutions engaging in on-chain transactions will need privacy tech to build “on-chain dark pools” to prevent front-running or exposure of positions.

Bitcoin is standing at the crossroads of traditional cycle theories and emerging structural shifts. Those who predicted a peak in Q4 2025 may be underestimating the long-term capital flows driven by spot ETF adoption, the fundamental change in institutional allocations, and the macroeconomic environment’s profound revaluation of digital assets. As markets shift from simple cyclical speculation to cash flow-based utility evaluation, investor strategies must adapt accordingly. Long-term holding is not entirely dead, but its application and execution require more nuanced thinking. Future winners will not be those rigidly following historical patterns but those who understand structural changes, adapt to institutional participation, and think flexibly in this new era. In this evolving market, diversification, infrastructure awareness, and the ability to identify genuine value flows will be more important than mere “buy and hold.” Bitcoin’s journey is far from over; it has only entered a more complex and mature stage.