The rising dollar pressures the real-time gold quote, but US NFP may change the scenario

Gold faces resistance as market awaits crucial employment data

The real-time gold price faces difficulties this Friday, with the metal retreating from the US$ 4,400 level during the Asian session. The strengthening of the US dollar over the past two weeks remains the main pressure factor, with the currency reaching its highest level since December, which hampers the attractiveness of XAU/USD for foreign investors.

Despite the recent rise in the US dollar, experts point out that the dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) should contain further gains of the currency before the release of the non-farm employment report (NFP) scheduled for today. This factor provides some support to the yellow metal, limiting additional losses that could occur in less favorable scenarios.

US employment data could redefine market dynamics

The market is closely watching the NFP figures, which will provide essential clues about the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory. According to projections, the US economy is expected to have generated 60,000 new jobs in December, below the 64,000 recorded in November. The unemployment rate, in turn, is expected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.5%.

Recent statements from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforce this scenario. In an interview with CNBC, Bessent emphasized that the reduction of interest rates is the missing element for more robust economic growth, suggesting that the Fed should not delay these decisions. Traders are currently pricing in the possibility of a rate cut in March, followed by further easing until the end of the year.

Geopolitics offers safe haven to gold

In addition to monetary factors, increasing geopolitical tensions serve as additional support for the real-time gold price. The US incursion into Venezuela, with President Trump signaling an intention to explore its oil reserves, the escalation of disputes between China and Japan involving rare earths, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war fuel demand for the metal as a refuge asset.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict is still distant, warning about the risks of direct involvement of European troops. This uncertain scenario tends to keep gold as a portfolio hedge for investors concerned about systemic risks.

Technical analysis indicates potential for prolonged recovery

The XAU/USD pair remains above the 200-period exponential moving average, currently around US$ 4,322.58, maintaining the long-term upward trend. The ascending gradient of this average provides support during retracements, indicating that declines should be limited as long as this structure remains intact.

The MACD indicator remains below the signal line and the zero mark but shows an upward movement. The negative histogram is contracting, suggesting a decrease in buying pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56, above the neutral line of 50, reflecting improved momentum without indicating overbought conditions.

If momentum continues to consolidate, optimists may extend the recovery while support at the moving average cushions declines. Staying above US$ 4,322.58 would maintain a positive bias, while a decisive break below this level could open space for a deeper retracement. For new long positions, analysts recommend waiting for acceptance above US$ 4,500.

US dollar leads among currency pairs

This week, the US dollar registered notable gains against major currencies. The US currency appreciated 0.90% against the Japanese yen and 0.92% against the Swiss franc, demonstrating broad strength. Against the euro, the gain was more moderate at 0.60%, while it performed slightly negatively against the Canadian dollar (-0,30%).

This performance reflects not only technical factors but also market expectations regarding the US monetary policy trajectory in the coming months, creating the challenging environment for the real-time gold price observed this Friday.